To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading. 相似文献
Abstract: The Onsen acid‐sulphate type of mineralization is located in the Desmos caldera, Manus back‐arc basin. Hydrothermal precipitates, fresh and altered basaltic andesite collected from the Desmos caldera were studied to determine mineralization and mobility of elements under seawater dominated condition of hydrothermal alteration. The mineralization is characterized by three stages of advanced argillic alteration. Alteration stage I is characterized by coarse subhedral pyrophyllite with disseminated anhedral pyrite and enargite which were formed in the temperature range of 260–340°C. Alteration stage II which overprinted alteration stage I was formed in the temperature range of 270–310°C and is characterized by euhedral pyrite, quartz, natroalunite, cristobalite and mixed layer minerals of smectite and mica with 14–15 Å XRD peak. Alteration stage III is characterized by amorphous silica, native sulphur, covellite, marcasite and euhedral pyrite, which has overprinted alteration stages I and II. Relative to the fresh basaltic andesite samples, the rims and cores of the partly altered basaltic andesite samples have very low major, minor and rare earth elements content except for SiO2 which is much higher (58–78 wt%) than SiO2 content of the fresh basaltic andesite (55 wt%). REE patterns of the partly altered basaltic andesite specimens are variably depleted in LREE and have pronounced negative Eu anomalies. Normalization of major, minor and REE content of the partly altered basaltic andesites to the fresh basaltic andesite indicates that all the elements except for SiO2 in the partly altered basaltic andesite are strongly lost (e.g. Al2O3 = ‐8.3 to ‐10.9 g/100cm3, Ba = ‐2.2 to ‐5.6 mg/100cm3, La = ‐130 to ‐200 μg/100cm3) during the alteration process. Abnormal depletion of MgO, total Fe as Fe2O3, LREE especially Eu and enrichment of SiO2 in the altered basaltic andesites from the Desmos caldera seafloor is caused by interaction of hot acidic hydrothermal fluid, which originates from a mixing of magmatic fluid and seawater. 相似文献
On 1 June 2017, President Trump announced that the US intends to leave the Paris Agreement if no alternative terms acceptable to his administration can be agreed upon. In this article, an agent-based model of bottom-up climate mitigation clubs is used to derive the impact that lack of US participation may have on the membership of such clubs and their emissions coverage. We systematically analyse the prospects for climate mitigation clubs, depending on which of three conceivable roles the US takes on: as a leader (for benchmarking), as a follower (i.e. willing to join climate mitigation clubs initiated by others if this is in its best interest) or as an outsider (i.e. staying outside of any climate mitigation club no matter what). We investigate these prospects for three types of incentives for becoming a member: club goods, conditional commitments and side-payments. Our results show that lack of US leadership significantly constrains climate clubs’ potential. Lack of US willingness to follow others’ lead is an additional, but smaller constraint. Only in a few cases will US withdrawal entail widespread departures by other countries. We conclude that climate mitigation clubs can function without the participation of an important GHG emitter, given that other major emitters show leadership, although these clubs will rarely cover more than 50% of global emissions.
Key policy insights
The US switching from being a leader to being a follower substantially reduces the emissions coverage of climate mitigation clubs.
The US switching from being a follower to being an outsider sometimes reduces coverage further, but has a smaller impact than the switch from leader to follower.
The switch from follower to outsider only occasionally results in widespread departures by other countries; in a few instances it even entices others to join.
Climate mitigation clubs can function even without the participation of the US, provided that other major emitters show leadership; however, such clubs will typically be unable to cover more than 50% of global emissions.
Climate mitigation clubs may complement the Paris Agreement and can also serve as an alternative in case Paris fails.