Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

闽江河口湿地资源动态变化的分形研究

本研究以分形理论为基础,并借助GIS、RS技术,利用1986年和2002年两期TM遥感影像,提取获得了1986年和2002年闽江河口湿地资源的空间信息,根据分形理论中分形维数和稳定性指数的物理意义,揭示了闽江河口湿地资源动态变化情况。研究表明:闽江河口的湿地类型具有分形结构.并且由于受到较强的人类活动的干预,湿地斑块的形状较为复杂,且稳定性较差。     

经济合作区域的选择方法研究——以云南在泛珠三角中选择重点合作省区为例

从成功的区域合作经验看,区域间的差异性和联系性是选择经济合作区域必须考虑的两大核心因素.通过多种指标对两大因素进行测度和分析,最终正确选择合作区域.泛珠三角合作为云南经济发展提供难得机遇,云南如何立足自身优势,正确选择重点合作省区,关系到合作的最终成效.从云南与泛珠三角其他省区间的经济发展差异、产业结构差异、优劣势条件、综合距离系数以及历史联系等角度分析,提出了云南应把广东、广西、四川、香港作为重点合作省区.     

重大项目对区域经济空间的影响——以广州市钟村镇新火车客站建设为例

在区域经济发展过程中,重大项目的影响比一般的经济因素显得更为重要和关键。而对受影响的区域来说,在我国现行行政区划体制下,乡镇所受的影响更为直接。2003年,广州新火车客站(以下简称新客站)规划选址于钟村镇石壁地区,引起了国内外的极大关注。通过实证分析,发现新客站的建设将会引起当地经济空间结构的极大改变,同时也会带来一系列的社会问题。     

澜沧江典型对比流域水力侵蚀快速调查与评价

根据水力侵蚀面蚀和沟蚀两种不同侵蚀形态发生过程尺度空间大小不一的侵蚀特点,确定了研究区面蚀和沟蚀的不同调查评价方法.面蚀的发生过程空间尺度小,选用小区调查方法进行,而沟蚀的发生过程尺度空间大,在典型调查小流域尺度进行全面调查.然后在两种尺度下,分析形成沟蚀和面蚀的影响因素,进行沟蚀程度和面蚀强度分级,并把研究成果展延到澜沧江凤庆河流域和晓街河流域.最后,以在典型调查小流域的研究结果为对照判别依据,判断风庆河和晓街河流域的土壤侵蚀状况.结果显示,澜沧江典型流域的面蚀强度差异不大,沟蚀是造成不同流域土壤侵蚀和沟道输沙差异的主要水力侵蚀形式.     

Origin and stratigraphy of phreatomagmatic deposits at the Pleistocene Sinker Butte Volcano, Western Snake River Plain, Idaho

Sinker Butte is the erosional remnant of a very large basaltic tuff cone of middle Pleistocene age located at the southern edge of the western Snake River Plain. Phreatomagmatic tephras are exposed in complete sections up to 100 m thick in the walls of the Snake River Canyon, creating an unusual opportunity to study the deposits produced by this volcano through its entire sequence of explosive eruptions. The main objectives of the study were to determine the overall evolution of the Sinker Butte volcano while focusing particularly on the tephras produced by its phreatomagmatic eruptions. Toward this end, twenty-three detailed stratigraphic sections ranging from 20 to 100 m thick were examined and measured in canyon walls exposing tephras deposited around 180° of the circumference of the volcano.Three main rock units are recognized in canyon walls at Sinker Butte: a lower sequence composed of numerous thin basaltic lava flows, an intermediate sequence of phreatomagmatic tephras, and a capping sequence of welded basaltic spatter and more lava flows. We subdivide the phreatomagmatic deposits into two main parts, a series of reworked, mostly subaqueously deposited tephras and a more voluminous sequence of overlying subaerial surge and fall deposits. Most of the reworked deposits are gray in color and exhibit features such as channel scour and fill, planar-stratification, high and low angle cross-stratification, trough cross-stratification, and Bouma-turbidite sequences consistent with their being deposited in shallow standing water or in braided streams. The overlying subaerial deposits are commonly brown or orange in color due to palagonitization. They display a wide variety of bedding types and sedimentary structures consistent with deposition by base surges, wet to dry pyroclastic fall events, and water saturated debris flows.Proximal sections through the subaerial tephras exhibit large regressive cross-strata, planar bedding, and bomb sags suggesting deposition by wet base surges and tephra fallout. Medial and distal deposits consist of a thick sequence of well-bedded tephras; however, the cross-stratified base-surge deposits are thinner and interbedded within the fallout deposits. The average wavelength and amplitude of the cross strata continue to decrease with distance from the vent. These bedded surge and fall deposits grade upward into dominantly fall deposits containing 75–95% juvenile vesiculated clasts and localized layers of welded spatter, indicating a greatly reduced water-melt ratio. Overlying these “dryer” deposits are massive tuff breccias that were probably deposited as water saturated debris flows (lahars). The first appearance of rounded river gravels in these massive tuff breccias indicates downward coring of the diatreme and entrainment of country rock from lower in the stratigraphic section. The “wetter” nature of these deposits suggests a renewed source of external water. The massive deposits grade upward into wet fallout tephras and the phreatomagmatic sequence ends with a dry scoria fall deposit overlain by welded spatter and lava flows.Field observations and two new ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar incremental heating dates suggest the succession of lavas and tephra deposits exposed in this part of the Snake River canyon may all have been erupted from a closely related complex of vents at Sinker Butte. We propose that initial eruptions of lava flows built a small shield edifice that dammed or disrupted the flow of the ancestral Snake River. The shift from effusive to explosive eruptions occurred when the surface water or rising ground water gained access to the vent. As the river cut a new channel around the lava dam, water levels dropped and the volcano returned to an effusive style of eruption.     

REGULATION OF FLOW AND SEDIMENT LOAD IN THE YELLOW RIVER

Small runoff, large sediment load, and incompatible relationship of flow and sediment load are very important characteristics of the Yellow River. They are also the crux of the most prominent problems of the Yellow River. To solve these problems, the regimes of flow and sediment load have to be improved by increasing water, reducing sediment load, and by using reservoirs to regulate flow and sediment load. The results of experiments for regulating the flow and sediment load in the last three years by the Xiaolangdi Reservoir have indicated that this measure is a realistic and effective way to mitigate the prominent problems in flood control of the Lower Yellow River at present and in the near future. However, the regulation system is still imperfect. It is advisable to speed up the pace of research and construction of the system for regulating flow and sediment load.     

PRINCIPLES OF RIVER TRAINING AND MANAGEMENT

River regulation and river training have been performed for various purposes and negative effects have been shown in numerous cases. In some cases the negative effects are so serious that humans have to consider to "renaturalize" the regulated rivers. Only by using the strategy of integrated river management the diverse river uses and natural fluvial processes and ecological systems may be harmonized. Based on analysis of case studies and data collected from literatures this paper presents the concept of integrated river management and four principles of river training. The integrated river management comprises: 1) taking the watershed, upper stream basin including the tributaries, middle and lower reaches and the estuary as an integrated entity in the planning, design and management; and 2) mitigating or controlling the negative impacts on hydrology, erosion and sedimentation, fluvial processes, land use and river use, environment and ecology while in achieving economic benefit from water resources development, flood safety management and hydropower exploitation. River training and management should be in accordance with the four principles: 1) extending the duration of river water flowing on the continent, which may be achieved by extending the river course or reducing the flow velocity; 2) controlling various patterns of erosions and reducing the sediment transportation in the rivers; 3) increasing the diversity of habitat and enhancing the connectivity between the river and riparian waters; and 4) restoring natural landscapes.     

EFFECTS OF RIVER NETWORK WORKS AND SOIL CONSERVATION MEASURES ON RESERVOIR SILTATION

Knowledge of the morphological dynamics of a water course is essential for management of reservoir siltation. With an example of sedimentation in a reservoir in Basilicata, Italy, this paper demonstrates the effect on reservoir siltation of the hydraulic works, which are aimed to reduce sediment transport along the fluvial network and to prevent part of the sediment discharge from reaching the lake. The effect depends on the river type and on the the geological features of river basin slopes. The paper also shows how mass erosion can significantly contribute to development of reservoir siltation. Finally, preliminary results are provided about the time needed for river training works to be effective.     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.