利用GPS资料浅析华北地区块体运动及与地震活动的关系

为了研究华北地区近年地壳水平运动的状态与演化．利用10a来华北地区网络工程、山西断裂带GPS观测成果．结合该区地质构造背景．分析了华北地区各块体运动的方向、速率变化及其与区内所发生地震的关系．初步得出以下结论：在区域应力场相对稳定时，表现为区域内GPS观测点整体趋势性运动不明显；而在区域应力场相对变化时．表现为影响区域内GPS观测点出现明显的整体趋势性运动。     

西北地区45a来降水异常的时空变化及其标度特征

利用西北地区(73°~113°E,30°~50°N)157个气象站的1960—2004年日降水观测资料,通过非参数趋势检测和旋转主成分分析方法对年降水异常的时空特征进行研究.根据降水特征的差异,西北地区可以划分为西北东北部、东南部、西北部、西南部、中北部及中南部等6大区域.结果表明:西北地区降水自东南向西北逐步递减,降水变化趋势则是东南为负、西北为正,变化幅度东南大于西北.根据每个分区的降水序列标度特征,采用消除波动趋势分析方法,对6个分区45 a来降水时间序列所纪录的大气动力过程影响的时空差异进行分析,定量区分区域气候系统和局地要素对不同区域降水贡献的差异及其年代际变化.     

Tectonothermal history of the basement rocks in the western zone of the North China Craton and its tectonic implications

The basement of the North China Craton can be divided into the eastern, central and western zones, based on lithological, structural, metamorphic and geochronological data. The western zone comprises two different petrotectonic units: Archaean tonalitic–trondhjemitic–granodioritic (TTG) grey gneisses and metamorphic mafic rocks, and Palaeoproterozoic khondalite series. The former is characterized by isobaric cooling (IBC)-type anticlockwise P–T paths in the north-northwestern part of the zone and near-isothermal decompression (ITD)-type clockwise P–T paths in the eastern part, adjacent to the central zone. On the other hand, the tectonothermal evolution of Palaeoproterozoic khondalite series rocks is characterized exclusively by nearly isothermal decompression following the peak of metamorphism and then cooling, defining clockwise P–T paths. The Archaean TTG gneisses and associated mafic rocks with anticlockwise metamorphic P–T paths reflects an origin related to underplating and intrusion of mantle-derived magmas which may be derived from mantle plumes. They represent a late Archaean continental block in the western part of the North China Craton. The Palaeoproterozoic khondalite series rocks represent passive continental margin deposits. They were metamorphosed and deformed in the late Palaeoproterozoic during the amalgamation of the western continental block with another continental block in the east part of the North China Craton. The ITD-type clockwise P–T–t paths of the Palaeoproterozoic khondalite series rocks record the tectonothermal histories of the collision of the western and eastern continental blocks which resulted in the final assembly of the North China Craton at c. 1800 Ma.     

1999年北京持续高温天气过程的诊断分析

利用北京观象台观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对1999年6月24日至7月2日北京一次持续性高温天气的演变和发展过程及非绝热加热作用对系统的影响进行诊断分析,结果表明：在此次高温天气发生前,欧亚大陆中高纬度环流经向度很大,欧洲北部和贝加尔湖以南为高压脊控制,中亚和我国东北地区则处于低压槽内。贝加尔湖南部的高压脊纬向延伸范围较广,在东移过程中长时间影响北京。随着贝加尔湖以南的高压脊逐渐东移,北京上空下沉增温与非绝热加热作用有所增强,北京逐渐受到高温天气影响。在高温天气发生的后半阶段,我国东北的低压槽入海后在120130°E附近维持并发展,槽前非绝热加热率很大。从垂直方向来看,加热率在500 hPa以下随高度迅速增加,根据全型涡度方程,强烈的非绝热加热率垂直分布不均作为一个明显的涡度源区,对入海低压槽的稳定维持有显著的作用。而入海低压槽的稳定维持,又阻碍了华北高压脊的东移,使其在北京地区长时间稳定少动,为北京带来多日的持续性高温天气。     

Spatial-temporal patterns of China’s interprovincial migration, 1985-2010

Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration.     

Biostratigraphy,sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy of the Tournaisian–Viséan transitional strata in South China (Guangxi)

The biostratigraphy and sedimentological evolution of the Tournaisian–Viséan (T–V) transitional strata in South China (Guangxi) have been investigated. The sediments were deposited on a carbonate platform and in slope and basinal environments. In the T–V transitional strata, six foraminiferal associations have been distinguished which allow correlation between the shallow and deep water deposits. A careful examination of the evolutionary stages of the foraminifer Eoparastaffella provides a more accurate criterion for the definition of the T–V boundary, but does not significantly modify the historical one. The distinction of two morphotypes is based on the elevation of the last whorl and the peripheral outline. Tournaisian specimens of Eoparastaffella have a well rounded periphery (morphotype 1) contrasting with the subangular periphery of younger Viséan specimens (morphotype 2). A coefficient can be deduced from simple biometric measurements for more precisely defining the T–V boundary. The sequence stratigraphy of the T–V strata in South China has been reconstructed by combining biostratigraphical and sedimentological data. It allowed the correlation of the T–V transitional strata between the platform area and the slope and basinal locations. Late Tournaisian strata were deposited during a highstand systems tract. Near the end of the Tournaisian, a major drop in relative sea-level led to the development of an unconformity in the platform area. Lowstand deposits formed during latest Tournaisian time in the basin where a detailed biostratigraphic framework has been devised. Sediments deposited during the ensuing transgressive systems tract overlie the late Tournaisian highstand sediments in the platform area and the latest Tournaisian lowstand deposits in the basin. A major drop in relative sea-level near the end of the Tournaisian has been recognized worldwide. Therefore, the possibility of using the sequence stratigraphy of the T–V strata in South China for worldwide correlations should be investigated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国海岸线分维及其性质研究

根据分形理论,系统研究了中国海岸线分维及其性质。得出了基本结论：(1)中国海岸线的分形结构客观存在,在1：2500000地图上标定中国大陆海岸线长度的分形关系式为lgL=-3．9929-O．1597lgr(式中,L为中国大陆海岸线长度;r为测量标度);(2)使用量规法与网格法计算出中国大陆海岸线分维分别为1．1597和1．0707,台湾岛海岸线分维分别为1．0381和1．0025,等等;(3)进行海岸线分维横纵向比较,应遵循相同的分维计算方法。对于同一条海岸线而言,用量规法所得分维大干用网格法所得分维,且用量规法所得分维相对较大,则根据网格法所得分维亦相对较大;(4)在中国海岸线量规法与网格法分维计算结果之间可以建立关系式Dd=2．5932Db-1．5363(式中,Db为根据网格法计算所得分维;Dd为根据量规法计算所得分维);(5)随着从渤海到南海(由北至南)的空间变化,中国各大海域海岸线分维显现出一个由北至南逐渐变大的趋势,而海岸带物质组成、生物、气候等因素的南北变化或差异是导致中国海岸线分维南北空间变化的内在原因;(6)整个中国大陆海岸线的分维并不等于其组成部分分维的算术平均值;(7)台湾岛海岸线受到了断层系的强烈影响,这可能是台湾岛(东部)海岸线分维较小的内在机制所在。     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。     

气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM2.5浓度模拟的影响研究

相比冬季大范围静稳条件下的污染堆积过程,秋季气象条件更加复杂和局地化,气象条件模拟不确定性给秋季气溶胶模拟带来了更大难度,且目前研究较少考虑气象-气溶胶因素在线模拟和联合同化。使用WRF/Chem模式和格点统计差值（GSI）三维变分同化系统,2015年10月进行了为期1个月的气象-气溶胶资料联合同化及模拟试验,并基于此讨论了气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM_2.5浓度模拟的影响。结果表明,WRF/Chem模式可以模拟出秋季污染天气过程,但对华北平原和中东部地区存在高估、西北部存在低估现象;同化地面PM_2.5浓度观测资料可以改进对PM_2.5浓度的模拟,上述两个地区的偏差均得到订正,6 h预报偏差均降低至6 μg/m3以内;重点针对华北地区的分析表明,秋季PM_2.5污染过程与特殊气象条件（湿度升高、风场辐合、区域输送）密切相关,因此在地面PM_2.5观测资料同化基础上增加常规气象资料同化,能进一步提高对华北平原气象-污染过程的表达,PM_2.5浓度预报相关系数从0.86提高至0.89。气象-气溶胶联合资料同化能更加准确地模拟秋季气溶胶污染过程,为更好地开展污染成因和在气象预报框架下开展气象-气溶胶相互影响研究提供了基础。      

Use of multitemporal remote sensing data for mapping the Alfios River network changes from 1977 to 2000

Alfios is the biggest river of the Peloponnese and the ninth longest river in Greece. It drains an area of almost 2575 km² in Western Peloponnese and discharges at Kiparissiakos Gulf. Due to its extent, the Alfios basin presents complex physiography and geomorphology.

During the last 50 years, major direct human activities have had an important impact on the river network shape and on the valley floor morphology. The most important human activities were the channel straightening caused by meander cut-offs in 1950, the construction of two dams: the Ladonas dam in 1955 and the Flokas dam in 1968 and the illegal in-stream gravel extraction that started in the 1960s and continues until today. As a result, the Alfios riverbed has presented very rapid vertical and horizontal (lateral) erosion and significant changes to its network shape. The drainage network follows a straighter course, the number of meanders has been reduced and the seventh order branch is deeply incised. Besides the morphological impacts to the river network shape there are also serious economic damages caused by human activity. During the winter of 1999, the Flokas dam bridge was closed for a long period due to damages at its foundation caused by the heavy rain and illegal gravel extraction. Transportation between the villages in the area became extremely difficult and time consuming and the cost of the repairs was estimated at 500 000 euros. In this study, there is an effort to map the network shape transformation for the period 1977–2000 using multitemporal and multisensor satellite images. One Landsat MSS image, three Landsat TM images, two Landsat ETM images, and one Terra ASTER image have been orthorectified and processed in order to cover the specific period. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques have been applied to map the changes in the Alfios River channel. The drainage network straightening and the cut-off of five big meanders were detected and mapped. These changes occurred between 1986 and 2000.