支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化.首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型.基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异.究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正.为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化.试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果.该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景.     

Neoglacial gelifluction in the Jostedalsbreen Region,Western Norway: Evidence from dated buried palaeopodsols

Radiocarbon dating of thin palaeopodsols buried beneath turf-banked gelifluction lobes at four localities in the low alpine mountain zone in the Jostedalsbreen region, western Norway, show that gelifluction processes were initiated subsequent to the late Subboreal Chronozone. Although large age-depth gradients have been demonstrated from buried palaeosols in southern Norway, evidence is presented that the palaeosols in this study show only moderate age-depth gradients. The age estimates from these buried palaeosols give maximum dates of burial, but the error is not thought to be large. Gelifluction processes were probably initiated close to the time of the climatic deterioration, which led to the formation of the present glaciers during the Subatlantic Chronozone. The processes may have been most active during the peak of the Little Ice Age, during which a periglacial climate was established to low levels in this mountainous region.     

Crustal velocity structure beneath the western Andes of Colombian using receiver-function inversion

Analysis of teleseismic records obtained in two broadband seismic stations of three components located on the Andean region of Colombia is presented in this work. The two stations are located at the Western Cordillera (WC), station BOL, and at the Central Cordillera (CC), station PBLA. The analysis of seismograms was performed by inversion of the receiver functions (RF) in order to obtain the crustal velocity structure beneath the receivers. The receiver function is a spectral ratio obtained from teleseismic earthquakes recorded by broadband seismic stations, which allows the calculation of the velocity structure beneath the receiver by removing source effects in the horizontal components of the seismic traces. Data stacking was performed in order to improve signal to noise ratio and then the data was inverted by using two optimization algorithms: a genetic algorithm (GA), and a simulated annealing algorithm (SA). The present work calculates the receiver functions using teleseismic earthquakes at epicentral distances (Δ) ranging between 30° and 90° and recorded at the two stations within the years 2007 and 2009.Delay times between P and PS waves converted at the Moho boundary were used to constrain the velocity structure. The receiver functions at the stations were generated from seismic events within a broad range of back azimuth. Data from gravity and magnetism were also used during the geophysical survey. The depth of the Moho boundary was found to be at 40 km in the WC beneath station BOL and at 43 km in the CC beneath station PBLA. The upper crust, with a thickness of 5 km, is characterized by a shear wave velocity of about 3.0 km s⁻¹; the shallower layers, at approximately 1.0 km, have shear wave velocities between 2.2 and 2.6 km s⁻¹, which corresponds to sediments overlying the upper crust. These observations support the hypothesis of a thickness of the crust at the root of the mountain range to be between 32 and 50 km. The calculated receiver functions were compared with artificial ones generated from the inversion of 48000 models of horizontal layers for each station using a GA and an SA that allowed a satisfactory coverage of all the sample space in order to avoid non-unique solutions. Beneath station BOL a moderate low-velocity zone (LVZ) was found, which was caused by accretionary processes of the ophiolite complex in the WC.     

New insight on the genus Nolaniceras Casey, 1961 (Ammonoidea,Cretaceous) and its consequences on the biostratigraphy of the Aptian Stage

Nolaniceras nolani ( Seunes, 1887) has been widely quoted in the Upper Aptian literature over the years. Re-examination of the holotype of the species shows that it has always been misidentified and that this taxon is represented by a single specimen, the holotype, of uncertain age. As a consequence, its use as an index species for the Upper Aptian should be reconsidered and abandoned.     

The last glacial-interglacial transition and dinoflagellate cysts in the western Mediterranean Sea

Using the analysis of dinoflagellate cysts in three deep-sea sediments cores situated in the Sicilian-Tunisian Strait, in the Gulf of Lions and in the Alboran Sea, we reconstruct the paleoenvironmental changes that took place during the last glacial-interglacial transition in the western Mediterranean Sea. The development of the warm microflora Impagidinium aculeatum and especially Spiniferites mirabilis appears to be an important proxy for recognizing warm periods as the Bölling/Alleröd and the Early Holocene. Bitectatodinium tepikiense, Spiniferites elongatus and Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus mark the end of the Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas. This cold microfloral association confirms the drastic climate changes in the western Mediterranean Sea synchronous to the dry and cold climate which occurred in the South European margin. The dinocyst N. labyrinthus shows high percentages in all studied regions during the Younger Dryas. Its distribution reveals a significant increase from the South to the North of this basin during this cold brief event. Thus, we note that this species can be considered as a new eco-stratigraphical tracer of the Younger Dryas in the western Mediterranean Sea.     

《北京西山地质志》中、英文本比较研究

依据文本对勘的方法,从图片和文字两个方面对《北京西山地质志》中、英文本进行比较研究。图片方面,英文本作了大量的增补和解说,内容更为详实准确。文字方面,中、英文本目录存在明显差异。英文本序言和注释有其独到的价值和意义。中文本正文的细节增补,应是吸收了当时的最新研究成果。中、英文本比较研究为认识《北京西山地质志》的价值与地位提供了准确可靠的学术依据。     

Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds

Forest clearing and conversion to cattle pasture in the lowland Amazon region has been linked to soil compaction and increased soil water storage, which combine to diminish soil infiltration, enhance quick lateral flows and increase the stream flow response to precipitation. Quantifying the importance of quick surficial flow in response to this land use change requires identification of water sources within catchments that contribute to stream flow. Using an end member mixing analysis approach, potential contributing sources of stream flow were evaluated during an entire rainy season in a forest and a pasture watershed drained by ephemeral‐to‐intermittent streams in the south‐western Amazon. Water yield was 17% of precipitation in the pasture and 0·8% of precipitation in the forest. During the early rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and soil water contributed 79%, 18%, and 3%, respectively, to total forest stream flow. Over the entire rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and shallow soil water provided 57%, 24%, and 19%, respectively, of stream flow. In the pasture watershed, overland flow dominated stream flow both in the early (67%) and late (57%) rainy season, with a mean contribution of 60% overland flow, 35% groundwater, and 5% soil water. The uncertainty associated with those estimates was studied using a Monte Carlo approach. In addition to large changes in total surface flow, marked differences were found in the proportions of total stream flow in the second half of the rainy season between the forest and pasture watershed. These results suggest that (1) there is great potential for alteration of the hydrological budgets of larger watersheds as the proportion of deforested land in the Amazon increases, and (2) as more rainfall is diverted into fast flowpaths to streams in established pastures, the potential to deliver water with higher solute concentrations generated by erosion or by bypassing sites of solute removal increases. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment budget of the Napo River,Amazon basin,Ecuador and Peru

The upstream‐downstream sediment budget along the Napo River (100 520 km², 6300 m³ s^?1) was studied in the Andean foothills of Ecuador, at the west of the Amazon basin. A comparative study was made during four hydrological cycles (2001–2005) for three hydrological stations located upstream, and during one hydrological cycle (2004–2005) for the fourth one located near the mouth of the Napo River (region of Iquitos in Peru). This analysis showed an unusual increase in the concentration of suspended sediment recorded for the western part of the Amazon plain. Like the runoff (81 l s^?1 km²), which is a world's maximum, the erosion rate (1160 t km^?2 year^?1, i.e. 47% of total suspended solid (TSS) export at the exit of Ecuador), one of the highest for a floodplain basin is the result of a stepper slope than in the rest of the Andean foothills, where typically sedimentation phenomena are predominant, and can be explained in part by a greater tectonic activity. Similar phenomenes were evidenced in small mountainous rivers in New Guinea (Milliman and Syvitski, 1992; Milliman, 1995). On the headwaters of the Napo River drainage basin, the tectonic uplift causes the Pastaza Megafan's existence. This progressively diverts the course of Napo River towards north and also provokes the remobilization of fine fluvial deposits. Moreover, this geodynamic trend is completed by the impact of volcanic eruption, earthquakes and landslides. The combination of these phenomena, so common in the region, has provided a large sediment transfer, not only at present but also in the past, as can be confirmed by the presence of incised terraces, mainly formed by volcanic materials. Then, these results were compared with a similar study carried out further south in the Madeira basin at the Bolivian foothills. These studies show the spatio‐temporal variability of the relation between sediment transfer and geodynamic processes at the Andean Piedmont. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineralogical and geochemical investigations of the Dajia Salento-type bauxite deposits,western Guangxi,China

The Dajia Salento-type bauxite deposit in western Guangxi is hosted within the Quaternary ferrallitic soil profile, and it formed via breaking up, weathering and oxidizing of Permian bauxite orebodies occurring as a semi-continuous layer in the upper Permian. Mineralogical analyses reveal that diaspore, hematite and kaolinite are the major minerals in bauxite ores with small amounts of anatase, chamosite, gibbsite, goethite, illite, zircon, quartz and pyrite. The ore texture and mineral assemblage reveal that the depositional/diagenetic environment of the Dajia bauxite was much close to phreatic environment. Both the ore texture and the morphology of zircon grains also indicate that most of the bauxitic soils were transported a short distance. Diaspore is suggested to be non-metamorphic in origin and mainly formed in a reducing condition of diagenetic environment, while kaolinite is the product of the in situ epigenetic replacement of alumina in diaspore by dissolved silica. Geochemical analyses indicate that Al₂O₃, Fe₂O₃, SiO₂ and TiO₂ are the main components of the bauxite ores and trace elements such as Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, Th and U were enriched during the bauxitization process. Simultaneously, Zr vs. Hf and Nb vs. Ta show a high correlation. Geochemical indices such as Zr/Hf, Nb/Ta and Eu/Eu* (among others) denote that the magmatic rocks related to the Emeishan plume in western Guangxi and the carbonates in the underlying Maokou Formation provided the main sources of material for the bauxite ores.     

Full retention in tuna fisheries: Benefits,costs and unintended consequences

Several tuna regional fisheries management organizations (t-RFMOs) have adopted retention requirements for skipjack, bigeye and yellowfin tunas caught by purse seine vessels to reduce discards, create disincentives to catch small fish, and incentivize the development and adoption of more selective technologies. Although retention policies in the t-RFMOs have been limited to target tunas in purse seine fisheries, some have advocated for an expansion of those policies, and t-RFMOs could consider expanding retention policies to a greater number of species and/or to other gear types. This paper discusses the benefits and costs of broader retention policies for purse seine and longline tuna fisheries in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). Using bycatch data from observers and logbooks from the U.S. purse seine and longline fleets operating in the WCPO, this paper documents the types and magnitude of fish discarded. For the purse seine fishery, this information was used to estimate direct impacts of having to off-load at the initial point of landing in key Pacific Island ports. For the longline fishery, estimates of direct impacts were limited to Honolulu and Pago Pago, American Samoa, the two primary ports where U.S. catch is landed. Expanding retention policies beyond the target tunas and to other gear types would further reduce discarding and possibly provide stronger incentives to develop and use more selective techniques. Beyond impacts to the ecosystem and fisher behavior, adopting broader retention policies may have other implications, and this paper explores those implications on vessels, processors, and communities. In general, as is the case with most direct interventions on fishing operations, there will be both benefits and costs, and the magnitude of those impacts will depend on the scope and extent of any expanded retention policy.