二次规划在调水决策和水分配问题中的应用

首先用二次函数建立了企业用水量与其用水效益的关系,然后根据这种关系,利用拉格朗日乘数法来确定该地区最优化水资源分配方案,并得到了该地区总的用水量与用水效益的关系,最终建立了区域调水中各地区间的调水总量的分配模型。此时原问题转化为一个典型的二次规划问题,结合各个地区的用水效益情况,可实现对各地区、各行业分水。利用假设的理想数据对模型进行检验,取得了较好的结果。对南水北调的实际情况,根据北方6个缺水地区基本的水资源及工农业用水情况进行了实际数据模拟,提出了南水北调的简单分配方案。该模型不仅可以用于区域间调水的优化控制,而且还可应用到其他水资源分配与管理。     

Validation of MODIS integrated water vapor product against reference GPS data at the Iberian Peninsula

In this work, the water vapor product from MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instrument, on-board Aqua and Terra satellites, is compared against GPS water vapor data from 21 stations in the Iberian Peninsula as reference. GPS water vapor data is obtained from ground-based receiver stations which measure the delay caused by water vapor in the GPS microwave signals. The study period extends from 2007 until 2012. Regression analysis in every GPS station show that MODIS overestimates low integrated water vapor (IWV) data and tends to underestimate high IWV data. R² shows a fair agreement, between 0.38 and 0.71. Inter-quartile range (IQR) in every station is around 30–45%. The dependence on several parameters was also analyzed. IWV dependence showed that low IWV are highly overestimated by MODIS, with high IQR (low precision), sharply decreasing as IWV increases. Regarding dependence on solar zenith angle (SZA), performance of MODIS IWV data decreases between 50° and 90°, while night-time MODIS data (infrared) are quite stable. The seasonal cycles of IWV and SZA cause a seasonal dependence on MODIS performance. In summer and winter, MODIS IWV tends to overestimate the reference IWV value, while in spring and autumn the tendency is to underestimate. Low IWV from coastal stations is highly overestimated (∼60%) and quite imprecise (IQR around 60%). On the contrary, high IWV data show very little dependence along seasons. Cloud-fraction (CF) dependence was also studied, showing that clouds display a negligible impact on IWV over/underestimation. However, IQR increases with CF, except in night-time satellite values, which are quite stable.     

Possible Density Change of the Origin of North Pacific Intermediate Water Due to Double Diffusion in the Mixed Water Region

In this study we test Talley's hypothesis that Oyashio winter mixed-layer water (26.5–26.6σ _θ) increases its density to produce the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) salinity minimum (26.7– 26.8σ_θ) in the Mixed Water Region, assuming a combination of cabbeling and double diffusion. The possible density change of Oyashio winter mixed-layer water is discussed using an instantaneous ratio of the change of temperature and salinity along any particular intrusion (R _l ). We estimate the range of R _l ^DD required to convert Oyashio winter mixed-layer water to the NPIW salinity minimum due to double diffusion, and then assume double-diffusive intrusions as this conversion mechanism. A double-diffusive intrusion model is used to estimate R _l ^DD in a situation where salt fingering dominates vertical mixing, as well as to determine whether Oyashio winter mixed-layer water can become the NPIW salinity minimum. Possible density changes are estimated from the model R _l ^DD by assuming the amount of density change due to cabbeling. From these results, we conclude that Oyashio winter mixed-layer water contributes to a freshening of the lighter layer of the NPIW salinity minimum (around 26.70σ_θ) in the MWR.     

随机森林模型预测岩溶区酸性煤矿井水锰污染

酸性煤矿井水严重威胁地下水的水质。如何更有效对受影响区域的地下水源进行动态监测是当前的一个关键问题。采用随机森林中的回归模型,利用自变量(采空区水位、岩溶水位、pH值、泉水流量、电导率)和因变量(污染离子浓度)的相关性,建立回归模型;使用测试数据进行误差分析,结果证明模型准度较高,所得预测值具有参考价值;得出各自变量对因变量影响的重要程度,分析结果与实际情况相符合。试验表明,随机森林回归模型在酸性煤矿井水污染预测方面具有适用性,可作为辅助手段监测水质污染情况,对今后工作有一定的指导意义和经济价值。     

浙西石煤产区放射性污染及防治对策

浙江西部山区石煤资源丰富,广泛地被应用于石煤制品的生产和用做部分电厂、山区农村的燃料。石煤中U、Th等放射性核素含量高,致使部分石煤及其制品中U、Th等放射性核素含量偏高。U、Th是Rn的母体元素,衰变后不断释放出氡气,导致石煤产区居室内氡浓度和居民年辐射剂量当量严重超标,危害人体健康。本文在分析该区部分石煤产区、石煤制品、石煤电厂以及居室中的放射性元素污染的基础上,提出了相应的防治措施。     

1961-2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

辽河流域是我国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961-2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少-多-少-多-少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节;辽河流域近50年来径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多-偏少-偏多-偏少4个阶段的变化,最近的1996-2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿 m³,只达到多年平均径流量的58 %、径流量最多年代的32 %。7月、8月是流量最为集中的月份,2个月流量就占到全年的50.24 %,超过全年的一半;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等周边地区相关系数基本达到0.6左右;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第二日流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数均在0.7以上,在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高可达到0.85。     

大气环境污染优化控制的实际问题

讨论了大气环境污染优化控制理论和应用中的几个实际问题以及可以采用的一些分析和解决实际问题的方法,包括系统化分析方法、数据库的设计与实现、实用空气质量模式、优化控制问题的数学描述和求解、污染物方程及其伴随方程的线形规划求解等,同时给出了在大气环境容量规划和总量控制研究中的实现步骤。     

Pipe Service Age Effect on Chlorine Decay in Drinking‐Water Transmission and Distribution Systems

Maintaining acceptable quality of water transported in the transmission and distribution system requires the chlorination of water beyond the treatment plant. While flowing through pipes, the chlorine concentration decreases for different reasons. Reaction with the pipe material itself and the reaction with both the biofilm and tubercles formed on the pipe wall are known as pipe wall demand. This varies with pipe parameters. The aim of this paper was to assess the impact of the service age of pipes on the chlorine wall decay constant. One hundred and fifty three pipe sections of different sizes and four different pipe materials were collected and tested for their chlorine first‐order wall decay constants. The results showed that pipe service age was an important factor that must not be ignored. For the range of the 55 years of pipe service age used in this study, the change in the wall decay ranged from 8 to 531% of the corresponding values in the recently installed pipes. The effect of service age on the wall decay constants was most evident in steel pipes. Other important findings were reached.     

傍河地下水水源地污染模式研究

傍河取水是常见的地下水供水形式之一,但水源地的水质常常受到河流污染物的威胁。近年来,随着区域地下水位的下降和开采条件的变化,河水补给地下水的形式也趋于多样化,从而影响着污染物的迁移。本文通过对河水与地下水的各种关系的分析,给出了河水污染地下水的各种模式,并综合得出其数学模型及其解,最后用实例说明其应用过程。     

包气带粘性土层的防污性能试验研究及其对地下水脆弱性评价的影响

大量文献资料分析表明,平原地区地下水脆弱性主控因素为地下水位埋深、包气带土层及其特征,而包气带粘性土层的截污性能及其厚度则又是脆弱性主要的影响因子。试验研究结果显示,粘性土的截污容量大小可以通过模拟淋滤实验测试得出,有效阻隔足额厚度也可计算得出。根据不同粘性土层的截污容量、有效阻隔厚度等,可以评判土层的污染防护能力,并可据此评价平原区地下水的脆弱性。