中国避暑型气候的地域类型及其时空分布特征

由于中国各地纬度、地形及海陆位置的地域差异,形成了多种多样的避暑型气候。本文采用1993-2012年756个国家基本站和122个辐射站逐日气象数据,基于通用热气候指数(UTCI)模型计算各气象站点的人体感知温度,结合聚类分析方法对避暑型气候的地域类型进行了研究,并对其空间分布、时间变化和舒适特征进行了分析。结果表明：中国避暑型气候主要包括西南高原型、中东部山岳型、东北山地平原型、西北山地高原型和环渤海低山丘陵型5种地域类型;各类避暑型气候具有显著的地域特色：西南高原型避暑气候纬度低、海拔高,太阳辐射较强;中东部山岳型避暑气候地势高、风速大,夏季舒适偏冷;环渤海低山丘陵型避暑气候地势低、湿度大,夏季舒适偏热且舒适度受海风影响明显;西北山地高原型避暑气候温度适宜、天气晴朗,但略显干燥;东北山地平原型避暑气候凉爽、风速不大、辐射不强、湿度适中,综合条件相对优越。从各类避暑型气候夏季人体感知温度的变化来看,环渤海低山丘陵型舒适期较短,其余类型舒适期相对较长,东北山地平原型和西北山地高原型人体感知温度曲线呈良好的单峰对称变化,其余类型大致呈单峰不对称形态。本文不仅丰富了避暑型气候研究的理论成果,而且也可为避暑型旅游资源的开发与规划提供科学依据,进一步指导人们的避暑旅游活动。     

玉米叶面积指数的CHRIS/PROBA数据反演分析

叶面积指数(LAI)是衡量植被生态状况和估算作物产量的一个重要指标。LAI的反演是定量遥感研究的重要内容。传统的经验统计反演方法基于单一观测角度的遥感数据进行,忽略了地物反射率的方向性。若在反演中加入多观测角度的信息,则有可能提升LAI反演的精度。以2008年甘肃省张掖市玉米实验区为研究区,利用欧空局的CHRIS/PROBA多角度高光谱数据对比分析了传统植被指数NDVI、RVI、EVI的变化规律及其反演玉米叶面积指数LAI的精度,并根据NDVI随观测角度的变化规律,构造出新型多角度归一化植被指数MNDVI,分别对实测叶面积指数进行线性回归并利用实测数据对估算LAI进行精度验证,结果表明：新型MNDVI指数相比于传统NDVI、RVI、EVI对LAI的反演精度有了显著提升,估算模型决定系数R²达到0.716,精度验证均方根误差为0.127,平均减小了33.3%。     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

2003年淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的环流背景及其前兆信号

分析研究了2003年夏季淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的时空分布特征及其前期和同期欧亚地区环流背景的逐日变化特征,重点分析了致洪暴雨过程发生前后乌山地区阻塞高压强度指数(UBHII)逐日变化特征及其对淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的影响．结果表明：2003年淮河流域持续性强暴雨过程均发生在鸟山阻塞高压强高峰后的减弱期,即在淮河流域发生持续性强暴雨过程之前乌山阻塞高压就发生了突变;同时发现西太平洋副热带高压加强并登陆后的,其北界的位置变化对淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的发生和持续也有十分重要的作用．因此,乌拉尔山阻塞高压异常加强后的突然减弱和西太平洋副热带高压的加强并西进登陆,是淮河流域地区发生持续性暴雨过程的两个重要前兆．     

Deep-Sea Sediment Compression Curves: Some Controlling Factors,Spurious Overconsolidation,Predictions, and Geophysical Reproduction

Oedometer tests have been carried out on 70 undisturbed surficial clays (at approximately 250 mm below the mudline), mostly collected by free-fall corers from sites widely scattered throughout the deep-sea North Atlantic. Acoustic measurements were also made, initially on contiguous samples and ultimately on the same sample using a geophysically instrumented oedometer which also collected electrical resistivity data. Apart from those quiescent areas below the carbonate compensation depth, such as north of the West Indies where very fine clays exist, most of the samples are silty clays whose geotechnical-geophysical properties are dependent on the type of clay minerals present (and their ability to take in moisture), the sand-size fraction, and the quantity of carbonate present. Thus the pure clays have high compressibilities which decrease on the addition of coarse particles, while the converse is true for the acoustic parameters, these increasing with the sand fraction. Using the notion of the intrinsic compression line for all samples, and comparison to it of the measured compression curves, it is clear that, contrary to some previously held ideas, most deep-sea clays are normally consolidated; the addition of carbonate has the effect of creating an open, stronger sediment skeleton. Interestingly, where information is available, the variation with depth of a sample's acoustic velocity follows the void ratio pressure relationship of the compression curve. This allows the construction of an in-situ sediment compression curve using the in-situ geophysical observations.     

地质灾害易发性区划的系统概念模型研究

从系统的角度考察地质灾害,可以将其看成一个地质系统。据水桶理论,系统的功能水平取决于系统中最脆弱的部分,地质灾害体的致灾也符合此规律。从此种观点出发,笔者构建了一个易于理解、易于操作、可量化的地质灾害概念模型,并对此模型进行了适用性说明和评价。     

Trends of urban air pollution in Zhengzhou City in 1996–2008

Urban air pollution is a commonly concerned environmental problem in the world.Identification of air quality trend using long-term monitoring data is helpful to understand the effectiveness of pollution control strategies.This study,using data from six monitoring stations in Zhengzhou City,analyzed the changing trend in concentrations of SO 2,NO x /NO 2 and TSP/PM 10 in 1996-2008,based on non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator,and evaluated the comprehensive air pollution level using Multi-Pollutant Index(MPI).It was found that the concentration of each pollutant exceeded obviously the World Health Organization(WHO) guideline value,but the changing trend varied:SO 2 and NO 2 were significantly increased mainly due to an increase in coal consumption and vehicle number,while NO x,TSP and PM 10 decreased.The air pollution was serious,and differed markedly among the three functional regions:it is the most severe in the Industrial and Residential Area(IRA),followed by the Transportation Hub and Business District(THBD),and then the High-tech,Cultural and Educational Area(HCEA).Different from NO 2 concentration that had a similar change trend/rate among the function regions,the change rate of PM 10 concentration differed spatially,decreased much more obviously in THBD than other two regions.For the whole city,the comprehensive air pollution level declined gradually,illustrating that the air quality in Zhengzhou was improved in the last decade.     

Vegetation greenness modeling in response to climate change for Northeast Thailand

In Northeast Thailand, the climate change has resulted in erratic rainfall and tem- perature patterns. The region has experienced both periods of drought and seasonal floods with the increasing severity. This study investigated the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） in major land cover types in the region. An assessment of the relationship between climate patterns and vegeta- tion conditions observed from NDVI was made. NDVI data were collected from year 2001 to 2009 using multi-temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product （MOD13Q1）. NDVI pro- files were developed to measure vegetation dynamics and variation according to land cover types. Meteorological information, i.e. rainfall and temperature, for a 30 year time span from 1980 to 2009 was analyzed for their patterns. Furthermore, the data taken from the period of 2001-2009, were digitally encoded into GIS database and the spatial patterns of monthly rainfall and temperature maps were generated based on kriging technique. The results showed a decreasing trend in NDVI values for both deciduous and evergreen forests. The highest productivity and biomass were observed in dry evergreen forests and the lowest in paddy fields. Temperature was found to be increasing slightly from 1980 to 2009 while no significant trends in rainfall amounts were observed. In dry evergreen forest, NDVI was not correlated with rainfall but was significant negatively correlated with temperature. These re- sults indicated that the overall productivity in dry evergreen forest was affected by increasing temperatures. A vegetation greenness model was developed from correlations between NDVI and meteorological data using linear regression. The model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and dynamics affected by temperature and rainfall.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis with a heuristic approach in the Eastern Alps (Vorarlberg, Austria)

The aim of the study is landslide hazard assessment carried out on a working scale of 1:25 000. The study area within the Northern Calcareous Alps was geologically and geotechnically mapped in order to identify causes and mechanisms of active mass movements. The field surveys were digitised by a Geographical Information System and divided into data layers. The geological units were classified according to their geotechnical properties. All layers were converted into grids and spatially analysed together with a Digital Elevation Model. Comparing the layers with the inventory of active landslides, the prevailing factors leading to sliding movements were identified. Because of the complex tectonic setting and the small number of active landslides, a statistical method of hazard assessment was not applicable. Using the heuristic approach of an index method, the data layers of geotechnical class, bedding conditions, tectonic layouts, slope angles, slope orientations, vegetation and erosion were analysed. The susceptibility of each layer has been evaluated with help of bivariate statistics. The layers have been weighted with indices due to their importance iteratively and were combined into a landslide susceptibility map.     

大都市创意空间识别研究——基于上海市创意企业分析视角

大都市创意产业发展既重构了大都市经济空间与文化社会空间, 又促成了大都市功能提升与结构优化。内城新经济研究认为大都市创意产业发展, 既孕育了创意空间, 又对其有高度依赖, 但是对于创意空间的内涵与认知却众说纷纭。中国发达地区创意空间是否存在, 其发育程度如何, 这正是本文的研究初衷。本文以上海大都市创意企业空间分布为研究对象, 基于创意空间的现实形态结合地统计方法及城市空间结构, 构建了由全局与局部Moran 指数初次判别-回归分析检验与甄别构成的创意空间识别方法。利用上海市第一次与第二次经济普查的企业数据进行分析, 结果表明:①基于GeoDA空间相关性的回归分析与综合判定方法是行之有效的;②2004 年与2008 年上海市各区创意企业在空间关联性上呈正相关, 且表现出集群式空间集聚;③上海创意企业高度集聚于中心城区, 并形成以静安、卢湾为中心的创意空间, 这表明创意空间具有显著的趋大都市中心特性, 但又偏离上海大都市中央商务区, 且有别于国外大都市“多中心”格局, 反映了中国大都市空间结构演变的自身特征。