华东地区地震活动的加速模型分析

地震活动加速模型是在岩石断裂理论和实验的基础上建立起来的,具有坚实的物理基础。运用地震活动加速模型对地震活动进行分析和预测具有很强的实用性。运用地震活动加速模型对华东地区及长南带地震活动进行的分析和预测结果表明,该地区本次地震活动期将在2016年左右结束,现在至2016年还将发生总能量相当于7．7级的地震,加速模型中表征区域地震活动特征参数α取0．4能适合于华东地区和长南带。     

江苏地磁加卸载响应比的异常标志体系

应用曾小苹等人提出的地磁加卸载响应比法,研究了江苏地磁台网1983~1997年的加卸载响应比异常及其间台网内和网缘附近M_s4.6以上地震之间的关系,提出了适用于江苏地磁台网分析预报的标志体系,并对其内检预报效能进行了评价。     

Magnitude-Intensity Relationships in the Ibero-Magrebhian Region

In this paper we present magnitude (Ms) – magnitude(mb) and magnitude-intensity relationships which areconsidered the most adequate in the Ibero-Maghrebianregion. This work is based on selected samples ofrecently revised events with magnitude mb assigned bythe Instituto Geográfico Nacional (I.G.N.) and Msassigned by I.S.C and N.E.I.C., and isoseismal mapsfrom 142 events. Using these data, we have obtainedone magnitude (Ms) – magnitude (mb) relationship, twomagnitude (mb and Ms) assignment relationships viaepicentral intensity (I₀), and ten magnitude (mb andMs) assignments relationships via macroseismicinformation: four using Ambraseys' methodology (1985)and six using the isoseismal area of degree III, IV and VI.According to the obtained results it could be concluded that historical magnitude assignment with lesser uncertainties are those obtained via macroseismic information using magnitude-intensity relationships with Ambraseys' methodology (1985). The magnitude-isoseismal area assignment relationships have, in most cases, great differences depending on the degree of the isoseismal area used. Magnitude assignments via epicentral intensity have the highest uncertainties. Geographic regionalization of the relationshipshas been studied but the highest correlations and statistical significance are obtained when we fit all the Ibero-Maghrebian region data.Finally we have used the results obtained in this workto assign magnitude to some important historicalearthquakes in the Ibero-Maghrebian region: the 1755Lisbon earthquake, the 1680 Málaga earthquake, the1829 Torrevieja earthquake and the 1884 Arenas del Reyearthquake. According to our relationships andmethodology we have assigned an Ms value of 9.3 ±0.6 to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (its mb magnitudecannot be estimated due to the saturation of the mbscale), an mb value of 6.3 ±0.4 and an Ms valueof 6.9 ± 0.6 to the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake, anmb value of 6.2 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.4 ±0.6 to the 1680 Málaga earthquake and an mb valueof 6.1 ± 0.4 and an Ms value of 6.5 ± 0.6 tothe 1884 Arenas del Rey earthquake.     

Sources of groundwater recharge at the confluence of the Niles, Sudan

 Due to the rapid expansion of the Sudanese capital city far away from its three Niles, it has become a necessity to estimate the sustainability of the groundwater resources in this arid area. The purpose of this study – based on the stable-isotopic composition of groundwater – is to identify the sources of recharge and their relative contribution. The results show that groundwater infiltrated from the Niles under the present prevailing arid climate, with greater contribution from the White Nile compared to the Blue Nile, occupies an extension of 12 km from the Niles within the two main aquifers. Paleogroundwater of meteoric origin, infiltrated in the cooler pluvial earlier Holocene, occupies the outer zones beyond the Niles' effect. A rational utilization policy is recommended to preserve the finite groundwater resources. Received: 27 August 1998 · Accepted: 2 March 1999     

农牧交错带典型偏农区土地利用变化及其原因分析——以奈曼旗尧勒甸子村为例

中国北方农牧交错带东部农业以种植业为主。土地利用变化对农业的可持续发展具有深刻的影响。尧勒甸子村是农牧交错带典型的偏农区,50a来土地利用发生很大变化。其变化表现出明显的阶段性,20世纪80年代前后明显不同。本文主要分析了农业用地和沙漠化土地的变化,并从国家政策、土地产权制度、人口、牲畜、系统结构等方面的变化探讨了其土地利用变化的原因。     

青海省龙羊峡库区沙漠化遥感监测

利用1987年和2000年美国陆地卫星TM数据资料,对青海省龙羊峡库区13 a来土地沙漠化面积、分布、发展等动态进行了监测,发现龙羊峡库区沙漠化总面积的净扩大量并不很大,只有15 220.6 hm²,沙漠化面积以平均每年1 170.8 hm²的速度递增,年递增率为0.55%,但沙漠化程度加大、等级增高的趋势明显。     

新疆和田地区地下水资源及其可持续开发利用

和田地区地下水具有一定的开发潜力,但地下水的可开采资源量依地表水的开发程度不同而变化。如果地表水引水率维持现状,则地下水最大可开采量为地下水天然补给量的55.8%,截取的蒸发蒸腾量为604%,同时泉水的消减率为35.56%。若地表水的引水率达80%,渠系利用系数提高到0.55时,地下水最大可采量为天然补给量的59.7%,截取的蒸发蒸腾量为70%,而泉水的消减率为49.4%。地下水的开发必须与保护并重,首先应加强昆仑山区的冰雪资源和水源涵养林的保护,合理开发平原区地下水与地表水;其次应积极预防地下水的污染及可能产生的生态环境负效应;同时必须加强基础建设和能力建设,提高全民节水意识。     

中国生态地理区域系统区划

Eco-geographic regionalization has been one of the most important topics in China‘s regionalization researches since the end of the 20th century. It is a major ecosystem in geographic zonality. A hierarchical system, which is formed by division or combination of natural features based on geographic relativity and comparison of major ecosystem factors (including biological and non-biological) and geographic zonality, is called eco-geographic regional system. This paper introduces process of China‘s regionalization development. The first level unit, temperature zone, is delineated with main criteria of temperature. The second level unit, humidity region, is based on criteria of water/moisture states. The third level unit, natural region, is divided according to medium geomorphologic units. Vegetation types and soils are applied as supplementary criteria to indicate temperature and water/moisture states. Mapping process from qualitative to quantitative and China‘s eco-geographic regional system are also explained in this paper.     

地下流体中强震源兆、场兆和强震远兆特征及其物理成因

初步分析了乌鲁木齐9、10号泉地下流体中强震源兆、场兆及强震远兆特征。结果表明,中强震源兆具体表现为震前1~ 2年观测点的绝大多数主测项出现同步性高值异常,临震前可能出现转折或反向,震后恢复正常;绝大多数中强震场兆则表现为观测点仅有部分测项出现短期异常变化;而强震场兆则表现为观测点少数映震性能较好的几个测项出现同步性较好的中期前兆异常;强震(群)远兆则主要表现为个别映震较好的测项出现前兆异常。并对震兆形成的原因进行了初步探讨。     

利用单键群分析方法研究川滇地区近年来的地震活动

单键群(SLC)方法是分析地震活动性的一个有用的工具,根据SLC特征参量的时间滑移计算,对川滇地区的地震活动性特征和地震活动趋势进行了总结分析。地震活动事实表明, SLC分析及有关的SLC特征参量可以有效地反映出地震活动的特征,并可用来进行地震趋势分析。研究认为,川滇地区的地震活动可能将较强。