昆明城市热岛效应变化特征研究

利用昆明周边多个自动气象站观测的2004~2012年温度序列,研究了昆明城市热岛效应的日、季节和年际变化特征,并分析了昆明城市热岛水平分布和变化趋势。昆明城市热岛强度具有明显的日变化,夜间较强,白天较弱。城市热岛强度一般在早上08:00(北京时间,下同)达到最大值,在午后14:00减弱或消失。城市热岛强度在冬季最强,春、秋季次之,夏季最弱。昆明城市热岛强度多年平均值为1.27°C,在2004~2009年期间表现为逐年递减的趋势,其年际变化的主要影响因子是云量。2004~2007年昆明城市热岛中心主要分布在主城区。2008年以后,由于中小城镇经济和人口的迅速发展,昆明城市热岛面积不断扩大,并出现热岛中心向呈贡、石林一带偏移的现象。     

下垫面对雹云形成发展的影响

利用中尺度模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)对2005年5月31日发生在北京地区的一次强冰雹天气过程进行了数值模拟研究,并与观测的雷达回波、冰雹云移动路径和冰雹落区进行比较,在此基础上探讨了城市和农田两种下垫面对雹云的影响。结果表明,由于"城市热岛"效应的作用,城市下垫面的地面感热通量显著增加,有利于雹云的发展增强和大冰雹的形成,使地面累积降雹量增加,但对雹云移动路径影响不大。农田下垫面具有较大的潜热通量,局地蒸发强,有利于大量小冰雹的形成,云中冰雹含量增加,但降雹强度较弱,地面累积降雹量小。     

Globalising initiatives for gender equality and poverty reduction: Exploring ‘failure’ with reference to education and work among urban youth in The Gambia and Ghana

This paper focuses on what observers have perceived to be a failure of development leading to a ‘crisis of youth’ as increasing numbers of young people find it more difficult to gain education, access to health, a job and meet standard of living aspirations. For some, a possible escape is offered by migration to Europe, the United States or Australia, often illegally. For those remaining behind, however, international development agencies offer a ‘globalisation of solutions’ to employment, gender inequality and poverty through the millennium development goals and the programmes to attain them. In this paper we do not take the failures of development at face value but look at local contexts to present a more complex picture of the relation between education, work and social life. Based on fieldwork conducted in urban areas of The Gambia and Ghana, we argue that rather than education as a catch-all solution we need to give more attention to the costs incurred by and for young people in pursuing education and training, to the operation of and actual opportunities in labour markets, and to patterns of gender socialisation which give women limited scope to exercise agency. This paper explores key gender dimensions of work and education among low-income urban youth noting that despite on-going efforts to increase young women’s enrolment in schools and access to employment, gender inequalities have been far from eradicated. Our field interviews reveal how social expectations that women should perform the bulk of reproductive labour in their youth as well as in adulthood and constraints placed on young women’s personal freedom in respect of their social relationships reduce time dedicated to education and establish fewer contacts relevant to securing paid employment. The result is for men to end up with more educational qualifications, more skills, and higher-paying jobs, even if unemployment among young people in general remains a major problem.     

Private sector involvement in urban governance: The case of Business Improvement Districts and Town Centre Management partnerships in England

Although it has many merits, the voluminous literature on urban governance gives scant attention to the actual involvement and positioning of business elites and businesses within Public-Private Partnerships. There is also little consensus among academics as to why the private sector become involved in such schemes. This paper begins to address these issues through a critical empirical examination of how and why the private sector is involved with three English Town Centre Management (TCM) partnerships and the Business Improvement District (BID) subsidiaries all three partnerships have recently developed. In order to do this, the empirical study is guided by a conceptual framework that foregrounds the relationship between (a) the opening up and monitoring of ‘institutional space’ by partnerships and the state, and (b) the motivations and ‘constrained agency’ of the business elites. The paper demonstrates that the positioning of the private sector is more multifarious and fractured than previous studies of urban governance have suggested. It also reveals that business elites and businesses view their participation as an ‘investment’ that needs to accrue significant financial returns and that partnership and state officials are highly selective in their choice of ‘who governs’.     

顾及轨道交通影响的浙中城市群土地利用多情景模拟与分析

土地利用变化受到地形地貌、自然环境、城市规划和经济发展等的影响,预测其未来情景对政策调整具有重要的参考意义。元胞自动机模型是模拟和预测不同规划政策下土地利用变化的常用方法。本文基于GlobeLand30数据集,利用浙中城市群2000-2010年土地利用变化校准FLUS模型,并模拟2010年土地利用格局,其总体精度、Kappa系数和图形优化(FOM)分别为89.74%、82.69%和29.86%。采用马尔可夫链预测2030年各类型土地总量,利用FLUS预测一般条件下(常规情景)和城市轨道交通规划站点影响下(轨交情景)浙中城市群未来土地格局。结果表明,在5 km范围内城市轨道交通站点对建设用地增长影响较大,在该区域轨交情景比常规情景面积增加45.25 km^2、且主要发生在城市边缘区。建设用地扩张主要通过侵占优质农田实现,轨交情景5 km范围内农田转化为建设用地比常规情景增加33.34 km^2,建设用地扩张强度高于常规情景,其中最低扩张强度以上占比高于常规情景3.70%。景观指数表明,2种情景中林地、草地和水域格局具有较高相似性。本研究表明,综合使用FLUS、遥感、GIS等技术方法,能够准确模拟和预测不同规划条件下未来土地利用格局,并为规划和政策调整提供高可信空间数据。     

Measuring the effect of an ongoing urbanization process on biodiversity conservation suitability index: integrating scenario-based urban growth modelling with Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS)

The present study adopts an integrative modelling methodology, which combines the strengths of the SLEUTH model and the Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS) method. By developing a scenario-based geographic information system simulation environment for Hashtpar City, Iran, the manageability of the landscape under each urban growth scenario is analysed. In addition, the CAPS approach was used for biodiversity conservation suitability mapping. The SLEUTH model was implemented to generate predictive urban layers of the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for each scenario (dynamic factors for conservation suitability mapping). Accordingly, conservation suitability surface of the area is updated for each time point and under each urban development storyline. Two-way analysis of variance and Duncan’s new multiple range tests were employed to compare the functionality of the three scenarios. Based on results, the managed urban growth scenario depicted better results for manageability of the landscape and less negative impact on conservation suitability values.     

New urban map of Eurasia using MODIS and multi-source geospatial data

Urban areas are of paramount significance to both the individuals and communities at local and regional scales. However, the rapid growth of urban areas exerts effects on climate, biodiversity, hydrology, and natural ecosystems worldwide. Therefore, regular and up-to-date information related to urban extent is necessary to monitor the impacts of urban areas at local, regional, and potentially global scales. This study presents a new urban map of Eurasia at 500 m resolution using multi-source geospatial data, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of 2013, population density of 2012, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime lights of 2012, and constructed Impervious Surface Area (ISA) data of 2010. The Eurasian urban map was created using the threshold method for these data, combined with references of fine resolution Landsat and Google Earth imagery. The resultant map was compared with nine global urban maps and was validated using random sampling method. Results of the accuracy assessment showed high overall accuracy of the new urban map of 94%. This urban map is one product of the 20 land cover classes of the next version of Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations.     

Is remote sensing useful for finding and monitoring urban farms?

As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, the need for fresh fruits and vegetables in urban areas grows while the difficulty of bringing these perishable products to these areas also increases. Small-scale agriculture located in urban areas is a highly effective and profitable way to provide these products to communities that are far from extensive commercial agricultural areas. Here we describe how remote sensing can be used with data mining approaches to monitor urban and peri-urban farms within cities in both developed and developing countries. Using very high resolution satellite imagery together with moderate and coarse resolution imagery and information from social media and the web, we analyze the usefulness of different methods to identify farms within urban boundaries in four countries. The analysis shows how a mixed-method approach is necessary in order to identify where urban farming is occurring and to monitor its change through time. Although remote sensing-based vegetation and water indices were useful, without ancillary data they are not effective at remotely mapping the locations of urban farms. However, remote sensing is a good way to monitor vegetation condition in locations where actively managed urban farms are known to exist.     

Riparian thermal conditions across a mixed rural and urban landscape

Riparian corridors have the potential to function as thermal refuges, moderating extremes of local temperature variation. However, although demonstrated at individual sites, and over short periods, the consistency of this effect at wider temporal and spatial scales is poorly understood. The aim of this study is to assess the temperature differences between riparian corridors and adjacent non-riparian habitats and to explore the influence of environmental characteristics on these differences. Air temperature was monitored hourly at 20 paired locations (riparian and non-riparian) for two consecutive years. Urban index and canopy cover were characterised by calculating the percentage of impervious surface area and tree canopy cover within a 100 m radius from the centre of each sampling site. Canopy cover reduced summer thermal stresses in both urban and rural areas whereas high urban index tended to increase the daily thermal indices. Rivers had a significant mitigating effect on the urban riparian thermal condition, particularly in extreme hot weather. Riparian corridors were generally 1 °C cooler than non-riparian locations in summer and could be up to 3 °C cooler at some sites in extreme hot weather. Furthermore, riparian corridors at some sites were warmer than non-riparian locations in winter. These findings suggest that the proximity of rivers can modify riparian thermal environments, potentially reducing the heat stress of riparian corridors across landscapes.     

Redevelopment and the urban forest: A study of tree removal and retention during demolition activities

Though relationships between urbanization and tree cover are generally well studied, the effect of redevelopment on urban trees, at the scale of the individual property, is not well understood. Developing knowledge in this area is important in order to limit tree loss during redevelopment and thus, ensure sustained ecosystem services. Here, we explore the removal or retention of trees adjacent to building demolition in Christchurch, New Zealand. We mapped the presence or absence of individual trees on 123 properties prior to, and following, building demolition. Using a classification tree (CT) analysis, the presence or absence of 1209 trees was modelled as a function of: tree-related variables, property-related variables, and economic variables. The CT model estimated tree presence/absence with overall accuracy of 80.4%. Results show that 21.6% of all trees were removed as a consequence of building demolition, resulting in a tree canopy cover reduction of 19.7% across all 123 properties. The CT showed that tree crown area was the most important variable for predicting the presence/absence of trees, whereby trees with small crown areas (<7.9 m²) were most frequently removed, especially if they were within 0.7 m of a demolished building. Land value was also an important determinant of tree presence/absence, such that tree removal was more prevalent on properties with higher land value ($/m²). The results provide important new insights into some of the reasons for tree removal or retention during redevelopment at the scale of the individual property where most tree-related decisions are made.