Accounting for Estimation Optimality Criteria in Simulated Annealing

This paper presents both estimation and simulation as optimization problems that differ in the optimization criteria, minimization of a local expected loss for estimation and reproduction of global statistics (semivariogram, histogram) for simulation. An intermediate approach is proposed whereby an initial random image is gradually modified using simulated annealing so as to better match both local and global constraints. The relative weights of the different constraints in the objective function allow the user to strike a balance between smoothness of the estimated map and reproduction of spatial variability by simulated maps. The procedure is illustrated using a synthetic dataset. The proposed approach is shown to enhance the influence of observations on neighboring simulated values, hence the final realizations appear to be better conditioned to the sample information. It also produces maps that are more accurate (smaller prediction error) than stochastic simulation ignoring local constraints, but not as accurate as E-type estimation. Flow simulation results show that accounting for local constraints yields, on average, smaller errors in production forecast than a smooth estimated map or a simulated map that reproduces only the histogram and semivariogram. The approach thus reduces the risk associated with the use of a single realization for forecasting and planning.     

Effects of forest harvesting on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows in steep terrain of central Japan

Landslides and debris flows associated with forest harvesting can cause much destruction and the influence of the timing of harvesting on these mass wasting processes therefore needs to be assessed in order to protect aquatic ecosystems and develop improved strategies for disaster prevention. We examined the effects of forest harvesting on the frequency of landslides and debris flows in the Sanko catchment (central Japan) using nine aerial photo periods covering 1964 to 2003. These photographs showed a mosaic of different forest ages attributable to the rotational management in this area since 1912. Geology and slope gradient are rather uniformly distributed in the Sanko catchment, facilitating assessment of forest harvesting effects on mass wasting without complication of other factors. Trends of new landslides and debris flows correspond to changes in slope stability explained by root strength decay and recovery; the direct impact of clearcutting on landslide occurrence was greatest in forest stands that were clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier with progressively lesser impacts continuing up to 25 yr after harvesting. Sediment supply rate from landslides in forests clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier was about 10‐fold higher than in control sites. Total landslide volume in forest stands clearcut 0 to 25 yr earlier was 5·8 × 10³ m³ km^?2 compared with 1·3 × 10³ m³ km^?2 in clearcuts >25 yr, indicating a fourfold increase compared with control sites during the period when harvesting affected slope stability. Because landslide scars continue to produce sediment after initial failure, sediment supply from landslides continues for 45 yr in the Sanko catchment. To estimate the effect of forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration on the occurrence of mass wasting in other regions, changes in root strength caused by decay and recovery of roots should be investigated for various species and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浊积岩和砂质碎屑流岩关键识别标志及辽河盆地岩心实例*

重力流是自然界中广泛存在的一种流体形式,不同学者基于不同切入点往往会提出多种重力流的划分方案。采用浊流和碎屑流的二分方案,对浊积岩和砂质碎屑流岩的沉积特征展开综述和探讨,旨在进一步概括这2类岩石的沉积特征,明确具有指示意义的最典型相标志。研究表明,在野外露头和钻井岩心中,可以通过以下典型特征鉴别浊积岩和砂质碎屑流岩: 砂岩内若发育以正粒序为特征的递变层理,则应该将其认定为浊积岩;若砂岩内发育泥岩撕裂屑、漂浮状泥砾或不含任何层理构造(块状砂岩),则应该将其认定为砂质碎屑流岩。这些特征是鉴别浊积岩和砂质碎屑流岩最可靠的标志。此外,变形层理、爬升波纹交错层理、波状层理、平行纹层、冲刷侵蚀界面、岩性突变界面和槽模等沉积构造也具有一定指示意义,出现这些特征时需要结合沉积背景、岩相的垂向组合关系和地球物理等资料进行综合判断。     

Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model. II: analysis,calibration and validation

The model presented in the complementary document entitled, Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model I: parameter application and analysis is analysed, calibrated and validated in this paper. The accuracy of simulated hydrographs is analysed by means of the efficiency defined by Nash and Sutcliffe. The sensitivity of the influence of five parameters on the behaviour of the model developed is analysed. Two different calibration and validation processes of Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model are performed in Aixola watershed. Twelve events have been selected for calibrations and 25 for validations. With the first calibration and validation process, the model parameters are set by assigning the medians' values of the distributions obtained by means of the optimum results. The second process is performed by calibrating the most determinant parameter in the adjustment, which is the one that indicates the proportion of infiltrated water that is retained and does not flow; this is done with an empirical formulation depending on the event characteristics. Subsequently, the obtained results are validated. This last process has achieved very good adjustments in both calibrated and validated events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

裂隙岩质边坡地下水渗流数值模拟

本文从反倾向岩质高边坡的渗流特征和渗流普遍规律出发,根据渗流力学知识,建立数学模型,通过渗流数值模拟计算分析了渗透压力、水头变化规律以及对岩质边坡稳定性的影响.     

重力、航磁资料在花岗岩型铀矿成矿研究中的应用

本文利用重磁场资料对我国南方一些花岗岩体的侵位状态和岩浆动力场进行了分析，并按动力场的强弱对岩体进行了分类。根据重力资料对苗儿山-越城岭、诸广山和贵东花岗岩体的反演计算，讨论了这些岩体的深部分布形态，提出了岩浆流动的3种方式，指出了富大铀矿床、大型铀矿聚集区的赋存部位及其与航磁异常的密切联系。     

Application of FLATModel, a 2D finite volume code, to debris flows in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula

FLATModel is a two-dimensional shallow-water approximation code with corrections and modifications that create a simulation tool adapted to debris-flows behaviour. FLATModel uses the finite volume method with the numerical implementation of the Godunov scheme and includes correction terms regarding the effect of flow over high slopes and curvature. Additionally, the stop-and-go phenomenon, the basal entrainment and a correction regarding the front inclination of the final deposit are incorporated into FLATModel. In addition, different flow resistance laws were integrated in the numerical code including Bingham, Herschel–Bulkley and Voellmy fluid model. Firstly, our numerical model was validated using analytical solutions of a dam-break scenario and published data on a laboratory experiment. Secondly, three real events, which occurred in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, were back-calculated. Although field observations of the three events are not very detailed, the back-analyses revealed interesting patterns on the flow dynamics, and the numerical results generally showed good agreement with field data. Comparing the different flow resistance laws, the Voellmy fluid model presents the best behaviour regarding both the flow behaviour and the deposit characteristics. Preliminary simulation runs incorporating the effect of basal entrainment offered satisfactory results, although the final volume is rather sensitive on the selected friction angle of channel-bed material. The outcomes regarding the correction of the calculated front inclination of the final deposit showed that this implementation strongly improves the simulation results and better represents steep fronts of final deposits.     

吐哈盆地丘东凝析气藏中侏罗统储层流动单元划分

对吐哈盆地丘东凝析气藏中侏罗统储层的流动单元的划分方法和参数选取进行探讨。针对丘东凝析低渗透气藏的储层和流体特点,纵向上对研究区中侏罗统地层进行小层精细划分,平面上应用SPSS统计分析软件对厚度、孔隙度、泥质含量、流动带指数等4个参数进行聚类分析和判别分析,将研究区中侏罗统储层砂体划分为4类流动单元。结果表明各流动单元的类型与储层物性、沉积微相具有很好的对应关系,能够客观地反映气藏储层的地质特征。虽然丘东凝析低渗透气藏中流动单元的划分和油藏中流动单元的划分没有太大差别,但是参数的选取却与油藏中的存在着明显的不同。     

城市雨洪模拟技术研究进展

从对水文过程描述的角度对城市雨洪模拟技术进行了回顾,认为管网汇流阶段算法较为成熟,而产流和坡面汇流阶段还有待深入研究.从模型构建思想的角度回顾其发展历程,阐明了经验性模型和分布式概念性模型的局限性以及分布式物理模型的良好发展前景.通过总结国内外几个具代表性城市雨洪模型的特点,从特定模型的角度进一步分析城市雨洪模型的现状,并指出中国与国外模型研究的差距.对与城市雨洪模拟精度密切相关的基础数据收集与管理技术进行了讨论,并提出了城市雨洪模拟技术的发展方向.     

非闭合流域岩溶水模型

通过对贵州普定后寨河实验流域的研究,论述了非闭合流域岩溶水形成机制,根据流域地表、地下结构,将全流域划分为4个单元,并考虑各单元的闭合程度,建立了概念性岩溶水模型,为非闭合岩溶流域水文研究提供了新的途径。