Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Permafrost‐thaw‐induced land‐cover change in the Canadian subarctic: implications for water resources

Climate warming and human disturbance in north‐western Canada have been accompanied by degradation of permafrost, which introduces considerable uncertainty to the future availability of northern freshwater resources. This study demonstrates the rate and spatial pattern of permafrost loss in a region that typifies the southern boundary of permafrost. Remote‐sensing analysis of a 1·0 km² area indicates that permafrost occupied 0·70 km² in 1947 and decreased with time to 0·43 km² by 2008. Ground‐based measurements demonstrate the importance of horizontal heat flows in thawing discontinuous permafrost, and show that such thaw produces dramatic land‐cover changes that can alter basin runoff production in this region. A major challenge to northern water resources management in the twenty‐first century therefore lies in predicting stream flows dynamically in the context of widely occurring permafrost thaw. The need for appropriate water resource planning, mitigation, and adaptation strategies is explained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.     

Influences of climate,terrain and land cover on stream salinity in southeastern Australia,and implications for management through reforestation

Reforestation of cleared land has the potential to reduce groundwater recharge, salt mobilization and streamflow. Stream salinity change is the net result of changes in stream salt load and streamflow. The net effect of these changes varies spatially as a function of climate, terrain and land cover. Successful natural resource management requires methods to map the spatial variability of reforestation impacts. We investigated salinity data from 2000 bores and streamflow and salinity measurements from 27 catchments in the Goulburn–Broken region in southeast Australia to assess the main factors determining stream salinity and opportunities for management through reforestation. For groundwater systems of similar geology, relationships were found between average annual rainfall and groundwater salinity and between groundwater salinity and low‐flow salinity. Despite its simplicity, we found that the steady‐state component of a simple conceptual coupled water–salt mass balance model (BC2C) adequately explained the spatial variation in streamflow and salinity. The model results suggest the efficiency of afforestation to reduce stream salinity could be increased by more than an order of magnitude through spatial planning. However, appreciable reductions in stream salinity in large rivers through land cover change alone would still require reforestation on an unprecedented scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same?

The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating sulfur dynamics during storm events for three watersheds in the northeastern USA: a combined hydrological,chemical and isotopic approach

Concerns related to climate change have resulted in an increasing interest in the importance of hydrological events such as droughts in affecting biogeochemical responses of watersheds. The effects of an unusually dry summer in 2002 had a marked impact on the biogeochemistry of three watersheds in the north‐eastern USA. Chemical, isotopic and hydrological responses with particular emphasis on S dynamics were evaluated for Archer Creek (New York), Sleepers River (Vermont) and Cone Pond (New Hampshire) watersheds. From 1 August to 14 September 2002, all three watersheds had very low precipitation (48 to 69 mm) resulting in either very low or no discharge (mean 0·015, 0·15 and 0·000 mm day^?1 for Archer Creek, Sleepers River and Cone Pond, respectively). From 15 September to 31 October 2002, there was a substantial increase in precipitation totals (212, 246 and 198 mm, respectively) with increased discharge. Archer Creek was characterized by a large range of SO₄^2? concentrations (152 to 389 µeq L^?1, mean = 273 µeq L^?1) and also exhibited the greatest range in δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? (?1·4 to 8·8 ‰ ). Sleepers River's SO₄^2? concentrations ranged from 136 to 243 µeq L^?1 (mean = 167 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? ranged from 4·0 to 9·0 ‰ . Cone Pond's SO₄^2? concentrations (126–187 µeq L^?1, mean = 154 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values (2·4 to 4·3 ‰ ) had the smallest ranges of the three watersheds. The range and mean of δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Archer Creek and Cone Pond were similar (3·0 to 8·9 ‰ , mean = 4·5 ‰ ; 3·9 to 6·3 ‰ , mean = 4·9 ‰ ; respectively) while δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Sleepers River covered a larger range with a lower mean (1·2 to 10·0 ‰ , mean = 2·5). The difference in Sleepers River chemical and isotopic responses was attributed to weathering reactions contributing SO₄^2?. For Archer Creek wetland areas containing previously reduced S compounds that were reoxidized to SO₄^2? probably provided a substantial source of S. Cone Pond had limited internal S sources and less chemical or isotopic response to storms. Differences among the three watersheds in S biogeochemical responses during these storm events were attributed to differences in S mineral weathering contributions, hydrological pathways and landscape features. Further evaluations of differences and similarities in biogeochemical and hydrological responses among watersheds are needed to predict the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Features of Vapor Transfer and Precipitation Distributed in Northwest China

This article investigates regional distribution features of rainfall and vapor transport in Northwest China during 1961-2002, achieving that: (1) Three climate zones in this vast region differ in trends of annual precipitation, with rainfall in the westerly belt (denoted as zoneWB) exhibiting an increasing trend from the 1970s, rainfall in the East Asian monsoon belt (denoted as zoneMB) displaying a decreasing trend in the study period and the Qinghai Plateau zone (denoted as zoneQP) precipitation fluctuating roughly around the mean; (2) The net vapor fluxes (NVF) in zoneWB and zoneQP show an increasing trend as opposited to zoneMB, for which the reason may lie behind that the NVF increase in zoneWB and zoneQP is attributed to pronounced decrease in deficit of westerly NVF, whereas the decrease in zoneMB NVF is ascribed to the significant drop in meridional vapor transfer; (3) ZoneWB rainfall and atmospheric vapor transport change abrupt in 1990 and 1985, respectively, without such happening in zoneMB and zoneQP; (4) ZoneWB rainfall increase occurs when atmospheric vapor budget/NVF increases, so that the latter has to occur ahead of the former; zoneMB rainfall decrease relates to the decrease in atmospheric vapor budget after the 1990s,leading to (more and even) successive droughts in the east of Northwest China on a synchronous basis except zoneQP of which the precipitation factors include river evaporation, glaciers, and snow cover in addition to atmospheric vapor.     

Late Glacial fluvial response of the Niers‐Rhine (western Germany) to climate and vegetation change

The Niers valley was part of the Rhine system that came into existence during the maximum Saalian glaciation and was abandoned at the end of the Weichselian. The aim of the study was to explain the Late Pleniglacial and Late Glacial fluvial dynamics and to explore the external forcing factors: climate change, tectonics and sea level. The sedimentary units have been investigated by large‐scale coring transects and detailed cross‐sections over abandoned channels. The temporal fluvial development has been reconstructed by means of geomorphological relationships, pollen analysis and ¹⁴C dating. The Niers‐Rhine experienced a channel pattern change from braided, via a transformational phase, to meandering in the early Late Glacial. This change in fluvial style is explained by climate amelioration at the Late Pleniglacial to Late Glacial transition (at ca. 12.5 k ¹⁴C yr BP) and climate‐related hydrological, lithological and vegetation changes. A delayed fluvial response of ca. 400 ¹⁴C yr (transitional phase) was established. The channel transformations are not related to tectonic effects and sea‐level changes. Successive river systems have similar gradients of ca. 35–40 cm km^?1. A meandering river system dominated the Allerød and Younger Dryas periods. The threshold towards braiding was not crossed during the Younger Dryas, but increased aeolian activity has been observed on the Younger Dryas point bars. The final abandonment of the Niers‐Rhine was dated shortly after the Younger Dryas to Holocene transition. Traces of Laacher See pumice have been found in the Niers valley, indicating that the Niers‐Rhine was still in use during the Younger Dryas. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.