Power of the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological data

 The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistic test has been popularly used to assess the significance of a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological time series. It has been considered that the test is more suitable for non-normally distributed data and it may be not sensitive to the distribution type of sample data. However, no evidence has been provided to demonstrate these. This study investigates the power of the test in various circumstances by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results demonstrate that the power of the test is very sensitive to various properties of sample data. The power depends on the pre-assigned significance level, magnitude of a shift, sample size, and its occurrence position within a time series; and it is also strongly affected by the variation, skewness, and distribution type of a time series. The bigger the magnitude of a shift, the more powerful the test is; the larger the sample size, the more powerful the test is; and the bigger the variation within a time series, the less power the test has. The test has the highest power if a shift occurs at the midpoint of a time series. For the samples with different distribution types, the power of the test is dramatically different. The test has the highest power for time series with the extreme value type III (EV3) distribution while it indicates the lowest power for time series with the lognormal distribution.     

Empirical calibration of climate policy using corporate solvency: a case study of the UK’s carbon price support

Emission reductions improve the chances that dangerous anthropogenic climate change will be averted, but could also cause some firms financial distress. Corporate failures, especially if they are unnecessary, add to the social cost of abatement. Social value can be permanently destroyed by the dissolution of organizational capital, deadweight losses paid to liquidators, and unemployment. This article proposes using measures of corporate solvency as an objective tool for policy makers to calibrate the optimal stringency of climate change policies, so that they can deliver the least loss of corporate solvency for a given level of emission reductions. They could also be used to determine the generosity of any compensation to address losses to corporate solvency. We demonstrate this approach using a case study of the UK’s Carbon Price Support (a carbon tax).

Key policy insights

• Solvency metrics could be used to empirically calibrate the optimal stringency of climate policies.

• An idealized solvency trajectory for firms affected by climate change policy would cause corporate solvency to initially decline – approaching but not exceeding ‘distressed’ levels – and then gradually improve to a new ‘steady state’ once the low-carbon transition had been achieved.

• In terms of the UK’s Carbon Price Support, corporate solvency of energy-intensive industries was found to be stable subsequent to its introduction. Therefore, the available evidence does not support its later weakening.

     

Time series analysis of the world's longest fluvial nitrate record: evidence for changing states of catchment saturation

Processes that drive the occurrence of nitrate concentrations in surface waters are known to operate over many decades longer than the available observations. This study considers the world's longest water quality record of nitrate concentrations in the River Thames (1868–2009) in order to understand whether the nature of the time series has changed with time and such external drivers as climate change and land use of hydrology. The study considers the linear trend, the seasonality, the memory and the impulsivity relative to river flow of the time series for moving windows of 6 years in length. The study can show that:

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京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental change recorded in sediments from the Marmes rockshelter archaeological site, southeastern Washington state, USA

The Marmes Rockshelter archaeological site in southeastern Washington state contains a > 11 kyr stratigraphic record that was excavated in the 1960s but only recently analyzed in detail. We present the results of physical, chemical, and isotopic analyses of archived Marmes sediments from rockshelter, hillslope, and floodplain locations. Multiple lines of evidence including éboulis production, soil chemistry, and δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O signatures in soil organic matter and calcium carbonate suggest that relatively cool, moist conditions 10,600 to 9700 ¹⁴C yr BP were followed by relatively warm and dry conditions as early as 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Warm and dry conditions extended to the late Holocene, followed by a return to cooler and moister climate. The limited range of δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values in Marmes paleosols suggests that the magnitude of moisture and temperature shifts was locally buffered in the lower Snake River Canyon but adequate to generate significant changes in sedimentation and soil formation, possibly due to nonlinear geological and pedological processes. These buffered canyon environments were well suited for establishing residential bases associated with foraging and logistical collecting strategies and may have minimized the influence of climate changes in food resource abundance.     

Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation

Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future.     

Sedimentary evolution of the Holocene subaqueous clinoform off the southern Shandong Peninsula in the Western South Yellow Sea

Based on the stratigraphic sequence formed since the last glaciation and revealed by 3000 km long high-resolution shallow seismic profiles and the core QDZ03 acquired recently off the southern Shandong Peninsula, we addressed the sedimentary characteristics of a Holocene subaqueous clinoform in this paper. Integrated analyses were made on the core QDZ03, including sedimentary facies, sediment grain sizes, clay minerals, geochemistry, micro paleontology, and AMS 14 C dating. The result indicates that there exists a Holocene subaqueous clinoform, whose bottom boundary generally lies at 15–40 m below the present sea level with its depth contours roughly parallel to the coast and getting deeper seawards. The maximum thickness of the clinoform is up to 22.5 m on the coast side, and the thickness contours generally spread in a banded way along the coastline and becomes thinner towards the sea. At the mouths of some bays along the coast, the clinoform stretches in the shape of a fan and its thickness is evidently larger than that of the surrounding sediments. This clinoform came into being in the early Holocene(about 11.2 cal kyr BP) and can be divided into the lower and upper depositional units(DU 2 and DU 1, respectively). The unit DU 2, being usually less than 3 m in thickness and formed under a low sedimentation rate, is located between the bottom boundary and the Holocene maximum flooding surface(MFS), and represents the sediment of a post-glacial transgressive systems tract; whereas the unit DU 1, the main body of the clinoform, sits on the MFS, belonging to the sediment of a highstand systems tract from middle Holocene(about 7–6 cal kyr BP) to the present. The provenance of the clinoform differs from that of the typical sediments of the Yellow River and can be considered as the results of the joint contribution from both the Yellow River and the proximal coastal sediments of the Shandong Peninsula, as evidenced by the sediment geochemistry of the core. As is controlled mainly by coactions of multiple factors such as the Holocene sea-level changes, sediment supplies and coastal dynamic conditions, the development of the clinoform is genetically related with the synchronous clinoform or subaqueous deltas around the northeastern Shandong Peninsula and in the northern South Yellow Sea in the spatial distribution and sediment provenance, as previously reported, with all of them being formed from the initial stage of the Holocene up to the present.     

Incentives,social–ecological feedbacks and European fisheries

The European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) has failed to deliver on social, economic and ecological goals. This failure is in part the result of a number of social–ecological feedback mechanisms. The policy is currently undergoing reform, with unknown practical outcomes. Here, relatively successful fisheries policies outside the European Union are reviewed. Through interviews and workshops with scientists, managers and other stakeholders, complemented with literature reviews, practices that can create incentives for long-term sustainability are investigated. The focus is on how the provision of clear and trusted scientific evidence can stimulate defensible decisions, in turn creating incentives for compliance, leading to positive social–ecological outcomes. Despite differences between Europe and the investigated case studies, the prospects of an increased regionalization within the European CFP provides the best starting point for implementing best practice identified in this study.