GIS技术在洪湖环境演变研究中的应用

本文运用GIS技术,探索了洪湖环境的近期变化及其机理,以空间的、定量的形式,展示了与修建隔堤、分割湖区、围湖垦殖及水位控制等人为活动因素相联系的湖泊环境变化效应和过程,分析了湖中挺水植物分布的动态变化与趋协。这项工作进一步表明了地理信息系统方法在湖泊环境变化的监测、评价和研究中具有独特的功效和实用价值。     

远东地区f0Es剧增与K指数突变的关系

一、前言 中纬度地区电离层E_s的成因与影响因素是一复杂的问题。远东地区E_s既多又强,其它电离层现象也有一些特色,本文在文献[9]的基础上,从分析原始频高图入手,对远东地区夜间f₀E_s剧增与地磁K指数的关系作了统计研究,发现两者之间关系甚为密切,即地磁K指数的突然变化伴随着夜间E_s层临界频率f₀E_s的剧烈增加。     

Noble gas tracers for characterisation of flow dynamics and origin of groundwater: A case study in Switzerland

The Grenchen aquifer system in the Swiss Plateau was extensively investigated in order to determine the extent of groundwater contamination and to assess the natural attenuation capacity. Environmental tracer data were applied to estimate groundwater travel times, mixing ratios, and evaluate groundwater origin. Recharge is basically possible in two distinct topographical areas, the immediate vicinity of the town of Grenchen and the elevated plateau of the first Jura Mountain ridge. Groundwater dating was performed with the ³H/³He dating method and supplemented by ⁸⁵Kr measurements. Stable isotope data (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and dissolved noble gas concentrations allow the determination of the recharge temperature, which is correlated to the recharge elevation. Noble gas temperatures (NGT) decrease in the direction of groundwater flow and range from 10 to 13 °C in the upstream area of the town to 7–9 °C in the downstream river plain. This trend could suggest the admixture of water from the underlying limestone aquifer recharged under cooler infiltration conditions, e.g. at higher recharge elevations. However, it is shown in this study that the difference in NGT does not require such a recharge. Rather, increasing air temperatures over the last 40 years and the urban heat island effect could possibly explain most of the observed temperature shift. Furthermore, it is concluded that the downstream river plain is hydrologically disconnected from the upstream town area. Consequently most water from the town area is drained by the creek Witibach and recharge in the river plain is higher than previously assumed.     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

Modeling of climate change impacts on Lake Burullus,coastal lagoon (Egypt)

Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.     

Avulsion regimes in southeast Texas rivers

Avulsions – relatively sudden changes in course, or establishment of new anabranches – are an important process in alluvial rivers. Their key role in floodplain construction and alluvial architecture, and the general conditions favouring avulsions, are well known. However, avulsion processes and evolution, and the factors controlling avulsion regimes, are poorly understood. In the southeast Texas coastal plain, where avulsions are common features of the river valleys, avulsions were studied on the lower Brazos, Navasota, Trinity, Neches and Sabine rivers using a combination of aerial imagery, digital elevation models and field surveys. Avulsions have important influences on the surface morphology and contemporary processes in all five rivers. Features associated with avulsions are active and distinct throughout the study area, and all the rivers have experienced geologically (if not historically) recent avulsions. However, no two of the study rivers have the same contemporary avulsion regime. First‐order differences in avulsion style are controlled by the stage of valley filling, and within the three rivers characterized by an unfilled incised valley, antecedent morphology associated with late Quaternary and Holocene coastal and fluvial‐deltaic processes accounts for the major differences. In the Navasota (27 avulsions in 185 km) and Neches (21 in 340 km) rivers, subchannels associated with avulsions exist in all stages of development from active to infilled, and some have occurred in recent decades. The other rivers have fewer avulsions, but both the Sabine and Trinity have experienced historic channel shifts. Only the Brazos River has experienced no avulsions within the past c. 300 years. Results show that even within a region of similar environmental controls and geological history local variations in inherited morphology can result in different avulsion regimes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: The tyne basin,Northern England

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.     

三峡工程对鄱阳湖冲淤的影响和预测

泥沙淤积是制约湖泊功能的重要因素。三峡工程运行后增减下泄流量,将使鄱阳湖的泥沙交换和淤积作用发生变化。本文根据鄱阳湖的沉积特点,利用典型年的水文过程对库区增减下泄流量时的冲淤变化进行了预测,指出直接的影响不大,但洲滩发展和束狭入江断面的负效应须有所警惕。     

Investigation on the relation between the gravity anomaly，crustal deformation and underground water

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