Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

Swedish Forests in the Bioeconomy: Stories from the National Forest Program

Abstract

The concept of a bioeconomy has been placed central in formation of a Swedish National Forest Program (NFP). Drawing on Hajer’s conceptual framework of storylines, we present a discourse analysis of the working group reports underlying the establishment of the NFP strategy. We ask what stories about Swedish forests come to dominate the NFP process, how well they reflect the commitment of balancing economic, social and environmental interests, and what role the concept of a bioeconomy, has on the formation of these stories. Storylines of Swedish forests in the bioeconomy unite wider European discourses on the bioeconomy and climate change with historical Swedish forest policy discourses, revitalizing a discourse coalition comprising the state and the industry. Particular to the Swedish discourse is the strong emphasis on creating consensus around a single story of the forest-based bioeconomy.     

辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估

为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响,以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据,利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型,以地理信息技术为依托,探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征,并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明:①辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大;然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。②春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为:出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高,日照适宜度次之,降水适宜度最低。③春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④春玉米气候年景准确率达64%,表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份(1971、1979、1993、1998年),较差的有1969年(4.98%)及1973年(5.59%)。     

1208-1369年陕甘宁交界地区干湿变化

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. (2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.     

气候变化对里海水位的影响（英文）

目前,关于里海的两个主要问题是水位变化及其生态条件。历史上,里海的海水入侵和衰退对该区域的生活和生产有很大影响。应用地质数据、历史数据和考古数据,以及观测数据,本文对地质历史时期里海水位的变化、年度和季度变化以及短期的波动进行了研究。文章对解释里海水位波动的两种不同的方法进行了论述,并认为里海水位变化是受地质、水文气候和水量平衡以及人类活动等因素的影响的多级过程,其中主要影响因素为水文气候的变化。     

南极地区气温变化的一些特征

本文利用南极地区考察站的气温资料,对该地区气温的季节变化和年变化进行统计分析。结果表明,南极地区气温的季节变化有明显的区域性和两季特点,东南极大陆是冷中心,在南极地区气温变化中起重要作用,极点气温的年际变率不大,南极地区气温场中存在ENSO事件的信号。     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

云南洱海炭屑记录揭示的近千年来古火演化历史

中国云南地区是森林火灾多发的典型区域, 了解该地区近千年来古火灾的演化历史及其驱动机制对于未来区域森林火灾的防护与治理以及生物多样性的保护具有重要的科学意义。本研究以滇西北地区洱海湖泊的3个沉积岩芯(EHB1岩芯, 58.5 cm; EHN1岩芯, 78.5 cm; EHB2岩芯, 80 cm)为研究对象, 通过对沉积物中高分辨率炭屑记录的分析, 基于 ²¹⁰Pb/¹³⁷Cs和加速器质谱法(AMS)¹⁴C测年技术建立的年代序列, 重建了洱海地区近千年来的古火演化历史。研究结果表明, 基于洱海湖泊沉积岩芯上部大炭屑指标重建的火事件与现代森林火灾记载资料的对比, 确定了大炭屑指标反映湖泊周围约10 km范围即大理市的古火活动情况, 验证了炭屑记录在重建古火灾活动方面的可靠性。古火历史的重建结果显示近千年来洱海地区共发生20次火事件, 其主要集中在1200~1350 A.D.期间和1540~2000 A.D.期间; 近千年来, 洱海地区古火活动的强度整体上呈现先降后升的趋势, 其中火事件的发生频率及其强度在近100年均达到千年来的最高值, 分别对应10次/300年和652.4粒/cm²/peak。炭屑记录和古火活动与区域高分辨率气候记录、植被状况以及人口历史资料的相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)和对比分析结果表明, 大理州人口变化是洱海地区近千年来古火活动最重要的驱动因子, 其次为区域降雨量和植被类型, 温度和植物量则对区域古火活动的影响较小。

     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

Millennial-scale evolution of Hunshandake Desert and climate change during the Holocene in Inner Mongolia,northern China

The Hunshandake Desert is located at the northern edge of the East Asian monsoon region,and its natural environment is sensitive to monsoonal changes.Geologic records suggest that desert evolution corresponding to climate change had experienced several cycles in the Holocene,and the evolutionary process can be distinguished by four dominant stages according to changing trends of the environment and climate.(1) Holocene Ameliorative Period(11.0-8.7 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area gradually shrank following an approaching warm-wet climate and strengthening summer monsoon.(2) Holocene Optimum(8.7-6.0 cal ka B.P.),when the majority of moving sand dunes were stabilized and vegetation coverage quickly expanded in a suitable warm-wet climate and a strong summer monsoon.(3) Holocene Multivariate Period(6.0-3.5 cal ka B.P.),during a low-amplitude desert transformed between moving and stabilized types under alternating functions of cold-dry with warm-wet climate,and winter monsoon with summer monsoon.(4) Holocene Decay Period(since 3.5 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area tended to expand along with a weakened summer monsoon and a dry climate.