基于地磁场相对古强度变化的下蜀黄土年代序列及其古气候意义

分布于宁镇地区的下蜀黄土年代标尺研究薄弱.我们以镇江大港钻孔岩芯的下蜀黄土为例,探讨了下蜀黄土记录地磁场相对古强度的可靠性.岩石磁学的实验显示,下蜀黄土大体上符合估计相对古强度对沉积物的要求.以低频磁化率()作为天然剩磁(NRM300)的归一化因子,我们获得了下蜀黄土记录的地磁场相对古强度变化.通过与邻区和全球的单个及合成曲线的对比,我们发现大港钻孔岩芯的相对古强度记录展现出主要的全球偶极场的变化特征,因而可用于建立下蜀黄土的年代标尺.新的年代标尺表明,大港钻孔的磁化率年代序列与北方黄土无法直接对比,证实了该地点的下蜀黄土磁化率变化机制与北方的不同.大港钻孔下蜀黄土的沉积速率与磁化率相关,低风尘沉积速率对应低磁化率,是降水增加所导致的结果.沉积速率与磁化率年代序列显示,下蜀黄土记录的本区季风变化过程可分为4个阶段.阶段Ⅳ(819～700ka)对应中更新世转型阶段,东亚季风降水较少.阶段Ⅲ(700～412ka)对应中更新世的大间冰期,东亚季风降水最多.阶段Ⅱ(412～197ka)时东亚季风降水减少,较阶段Ⅳ略少.阶段Ⅰ(197～34ka)东亚季风降水最少.因此,中更新世气候转型后,长时间尺度东亚季风降水持续减少,可能受全球温度阶段性降低驱动.     

Offset dependence of overburden time-shifts from ultrasonic data

Depletion or injection into a reservoir implies stress changes and strains in the reservoir and its surroundings. This may lead to measurable time-shifts for seismic waves propagating in the subsurface. To better understand the offset dependence of time-shifts in the overburden, we have systematically quantified the time-shifts of three different overburden shales in controlled laboratory tests. These experiments may be viewed as an analogue to the time-shifts recorded from seismic field surveys. For a range of different stress paths, defined as the ratio between the horizontal and the vertical stress changes, the changes of the P-wave velocities in different directions were measured such that the offset dependence of time-shifts for different stress paths could be studied. The time-shifts are stress path dependent, which is particularly pronounced at large offsets. For all stress paths, the time-shifts exhibit a linearly decreasing trend with increasing offset, that is, a negative offset gradient. At zero offset, for which the ray path is normal to the bedding, the time-shifts are similar for all investigated stress paths. The isotropic stress path is associated with the smallest offset gradient of the time-shifts. In contrast, the constant-mean-stress path shows the largest gradient with a flip in the polarity of the time-shifts for the largest offsets. The separate contributions from the strain and velocity changes to the time-shifts were also quantified. The time-shifts for the isotropic stress path are dominated by the contribution from velocity changes at all offsets. In contrast, the strain contributes significantly to the time-shifts at small offsets for the constant-mean-stress path. This shows that the offset dependence in pre-stack seismic data may be a key to understand the changes of subsurface stresses, pore pressure and strain upon depletion or injection. To utilize this knowledge from laboratory experiments, calibrated rock physics models and correlations are needed to constrain the seismic time-shifts and to obtain an adequately updated geological model reflecting the true anisotropic nature of the subsurface. This may have important implications for improved recovery and safety, particularly in mature fields.     

The first post‐injection seismic monitor survey at the Ketzin pilot CO2 storage site: results from time‐lapse analysis

The injection of CO₂ at the Ketzin pilot CO₂ storage site started in June 2008 and ended in August 2013. During the 62 months of injection, a total amount of about 67 kt of CO₂ was injected into a saline aquifer. A third repeat three‐dimensional seismic survey, serving as the first post‐injection survey, was acquired in 2015, aiming to investigate the recent movement of the injected CO₂. Consistent with the previous two time‐lapse surveys, a predominantly west–northwest migration of the gaseous CO₂ plume in the up‐dip direction within the reservoir is inferred in this first post‐injection survey. No systematic anomalies are detected through the reservoir overburden. The extent of the CO₂ plume west of the injection site is almost identical to that found in the 2012 second repeat survey (after injection of 61 kt); however, there is a significant decrease in its size east of the injection site. Assessment of the CO₂ plume distribution suggests that the decrease in the size of the anomaly may be due to multiple factors, such as limited vertical resolution, CO₂ dissolution, and CO₂ migration into thin layers, in addition to the effects of ambient noise. Four‐dimensional seismic modelling based on dynamic flow simulations indicates that a dynamic balance between the newly injected CO₂ after the second repeat survey and the CO₂ migrating into thin layers and being dissolved was reached by the time of the first post‐injection survey. In view of the significant uncertainties in CO₂ mass estimation, both patchy and non‐patchy saturation models for the Ketzin site were taken into consideration.     

南天山东段地震活动特征

分析研究了南天山地震带构造环境、中强地震活动震源机制解、中强地震时空分布以及拜城周围小震群活动与中强地震的关系。结果表明：南天山东段中强震震源断错以倾滑逆断为主,主压应力P轴由西到东呈扇形分布;相距较近的库车与拜城地区地震活动存在较大差异,但均存在明显的成丛性分布特点;拜城地区中强地震分布呈北西向可能预示着该区存在隐伏断裂,小震群活动则可能反映了局部中强震对周围次级小构造的影响。     

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl     

Dating flowering cycles of Amazonian bamboo-dominated forests by supervised Landsat time series segmentation

Bamboo-dominated forests are unusual and interesting because their structure and biomass fluctuate in decades-long cycles corresponding to the flowering and mortality rhythm of the bamboo. In southwestern Amazonia, these forests have been estimated to occupy an area of approximately 160 000 km², and a single reproductively synchronized patch can cover up to thousands of square kilometers. Accurate mapping of these forests is challenging, however: the forests are spatially heterogeneous, with bamboo densities varying widely among adjacent sites; much of the area is inaccessible, so field verification of bamboo presence is difficult to obtain and georeferenced records of past flowering events virtually non-existent; and detectability of the bamboo by remote sensing varies considerably during its life cycle. In this study, we develop a supervised time series segmentation approach that allows us to identify both the presence of bamboo forests and the years in which the bamboo flowering and subsequent mortality have occurred. We then apply the method to the entire Landsat TM/ETM+ archive from 1984 to the end of 2018 and validate the classification by visual interpretation of very high resolution imagery. Collecting accurate ground reference data of bamboo presence and bamboo mortality timing is notably difficult in these forests, and we therefore developed a methodology that takes advantage of imperfect reference data obtained from the Landsat time series itself. Our results show that bamboo forests can be differentiated from non-bamboo forests using any of the infrared bands, but band 5 produces the highest classification accuracy. Interestingly, there appears to be a temporal difference in the spectral responses of the three infrared bands to bamboo flowering and mortality: near infrared (band 4) reflectance reacts to the event earlier than shortwave infrared (bands 5 and 7) reflectance. The long Landsat TM/ETM+ archive allows our methodology to detect some areas with two mortality events, with a theoretical maximum interval of 29 years. Analysis of these pixels with repeated mortality confirms that the life cycles of the local bamboo species (Guadua sarcocarpa and G. weberbauerii) last typically 28 years.     

Does ratification matter and do major conventions improve safety and decrease pollution in shipping?

This article develops a method to measure the effect of the major international conventions in the area of safety, pollution, search and rescue and work related measures. It further distinguishes between the effect of entry into force and the status of ratification of a convention by its parties. Standard econometric models are used and the analysis is based on a unique dataset of 30 years of monthly data where the models also correct for other factors which can influence safety such as safety inspections and ship economic cycles. The results show a complex picture where the average time between adoption and entry into force was calculated to be 3.1 years. Overall, the more parties ratify a convention, the more likely safety is improved and pollution is decreased although one can detect a certain level of non-compliance. The immediate effect of entry into force presents a mixed picture where most negative effects can be found with legislation in the area of safety management and pollution, followed by technical areas. The effect of legislation in the areas related to working and living conditions and certification and training is smallest. Seasonality can be found with peaks in December and January for all conventions but are less important for pollution.     

Validation of the three-dimensional ECOHAM model in the German Bight for 2004 including population dynamics of Pseudocalanus elongatus

A three-dimensional ecosystem model for the North Sea which includes competition between Pseudocalanus elongatus and the rest of the zooplankton biomass was applied to describe the seasonal cycle of zooplankton in 2003–2004. The paper presents the comparison of simulated stage-resolved abundances with copepod counts at several stations in the German Bight during the GLOBEC-Germany project from February to October 2004. A validation of influential state variables gives confidence that the model is able to calculate reliably the stage development and abundances of P. elongatus as well as the range of bulk zooplankton biomass, and thus the ratio of population biomass to total biomass. In the German Bight, the population is below 20% in spring. The ratio increases up to 50% during summer. The number of generations was estimated from peaks in egg abundance to about 4–8 generations of P. elongatus in the southern North Sea. A mean of four generations per year were estimated in the central North Sea, six to eight generations northwest of the Dogger Bank (tails end) and five generations in the German Bight.     

Grassland habitat mapping by intra-annual time series analysis – Comparison of RapidEye and TerraSAR-X satellite data

Remote sensing concepts are needed to monitor open landscape habitats for environmental change and biodiversity loss. However, existing operational approaches are limited to the monitoring of European dry heaths only. They need to be extended to further habitats. Thus far, reported studies lack the exploitation of intra-annual time series of high spatial resolution data to take advantage of the vegetations’ phenological differences. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of such data to classify grassland habitats in a nature reserve area in northeastern Germany. Intra-annual time series of 21 observations were used, acquired by a multi-spectral (RapidEye) and a synthetic aperture radar (TerraSAR-X) satellite system, to differentiate seven grassland classes using a Support Vector Machine classifier. The classification accuracy was evaluated and compared with respect to the sensor type – multi-spectral or radar – and the number of acquisitions needed. Our results showed that very dense time series allowed for very high accuracy classifications (>90%) of small scale vegetation types. The classification for TerraSAR-X obtained similar accuracy as compared to RapidEye although distinctly more acquisitions were needed. This study introduces a new approach to enable the monitoring of small-scale grassland habitats and gives an estimate of the amount of data required for operational surveys.     

Temporal analysis of remotely sensed turbidity in a coastal archipelago

A topographically fragmental archipelago with dynamic waters set the preconditions for assessing coherent remotely sensed information. We generated a turbidity dataset for an archipelago coast in the Baltic Sea from MERIS data (FSG L1b), using CoastColour L1P, L2R and L2W processors. We excluded land and mixed pixels by masking the imagery with accurate (1:10 000) shoreline data. Using temporal linear averaging (TLA), we produced satellite-imagery datasets applicable to temporal composites for the summer seasons of three years. The turbidity assessments and temporally averaged data were compared to in situ observations obtained with coastal monitoring programs. The ability of TLA to estimate missing pixel values was further assessed by cross-validation with the leave-one-out method. The correspondence between L2W turbidity and in situ observations was good (r = 0.89), and even after applying TLA the correspondence remained acceptable (r = 0.78). The datasets revealed spatially divergent temporal water characteristics, which may be relevant to the management, design of monitoring and habitat models. Monitoring observations may be spatially biased if the temporal succession of water properties is not taken into account in coastal areas with anisotropic dispersion of waters and asynchronous annual cycles. Accordingly, areas of varying turbidity may offer a different habitat for aquatic biota than areas of static turbidity, even though they may appear similar if water properties are measured for short annual periods.