中国东部地区断裂的缜奏性活动

对中国东部地区断裂的节奏性活动进行了探讨,认为这种节奏性活动主要根据构造地貌进行鉴别,并可分为六种型式:稳定—蠕滑错动;稳定—急速错动;蠕滑—急速错动;交替型蠕滑错动;交替型急速错动和复式错动。地震活动周期与断裂的节奏性活动相关联。断裂活动产生强震的型式有单发式、对偶式和连发式,这三种形式分别出现在不同的断裂中,并取决于不同区域、不同断裂的活动特征。     

太原盆地历史地震活动特征及未来地震形势估计

对公元1000－1985年太原盆地M≥4.0地震进行了时序分析，结果表明，它们在时间轴上和山西地震带及至华北地区有着相似的平静一起伏变化特点，以此划出4个地震活动期和若干活动幕，指出活动最大地震存在逐步升级现象；在空间上重复性高，形成3个地震巢和以巢为主的地震条带与地震跳迁现象，认为在2000年前后，太原盆地将处在地震高活动时段，有可能在地震巢附近发生若干个中强地震，山西和华北地区强震活动也有可能与之同步。     

准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计

反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河     

布朗族的天文历法知识刍议

布朗族使用傣历（祖葛历）,以月份结合物候变化指导生产,生活中使用７ｄ（天）为１轮的纪日制度,并将７个日名赋予不同寓意。这种状况可能距今只有２００余年的历史,在此以前的历法,由于没有文字记录而被完全淡忘了,但从其先民的崖画和口头流传的传说中,有阴阳并重、同时崇拜太阳和月亮的内容看,是处于阴阳合历初期的“物候历”,其内容应与佤族（清朝时分化）的阴阳历相似。     

嘉峪关光化楼残损变形现状及抗震性能分析

中国木结构建筑是我国宝贵的物质文化遗产和文化瑰宝，具有悠久的文化历史。以嘉峪关光化楼为依托，对光化楼进行实地调研，分析光化楼主要残损变形。采用ANSYS软件建立考虑光化楼残损变形的三维有限元精细模型，并进行模态分析与时程分析。研究结果表明，光化楼主要残损变形为油饰脱落、墙体剥蚀开裂、柱偏移等，极个别柱产生较大偏移；光化楼刚度相对稳定，前20阶振型自振频率均在10Hz以内；光化楼动力放大系数与层间位移角均较小，仍具有良好的抗震减震性能。     

试论知识经济时代的地理学

近几年,知识经济这一概念在全世界范围得到迅速传播,引起了社会各界的强烈反响．尽管,对于知识经济时代空竟何时到来,学者们虽有争议,但是大家都不约而同地认为,知识经济这一概念恰当地概括了当今世界经济的特征和发展趋势,知识经济将改变人类社会经济生活的各个方面。     

“新经济地理学”与经济地理学的分异与对立

最近几年来,由于经济全球化的趋势,西方经济学家又开始对经济地理学产生兴趣。“新经济地理学”或“地理经济学”应运而生。首先介绍经济学家克鲁格曼的“新经济地理学”理论框架和方法,综述西方地理学家对所谓“新经济地理学”的评价,最后概述经济地理学最近的发展以及地理学家对新经济地理学理解。     

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling

A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2).