PALEOCENE—MIDDLE EOCENE DEXTRAL STRIKE-SLIP DEFORMATION AND ITS TECTONIC IMPLICATION IN THE WESTERN YUNNAN, CHINA

PALEOCENE—MIDDLE EOCENE DEXTRAL STRIKE-SLIP DEFORMATION AND ITS TECTONIC IMPLICATION IN THE WESTERN YUNNAN, CHINA     

三峡水库蓄水初期近坝区淤积形态成因初步分析

三峡水库蓄水运用后,库区泥沙淤积将显著增加.基于三维水沙数值模型及实测资料分析,对水库蓄水初期近坝区泥沙淤积形态的成因进行了初步探讨.研究结果表明坝前淤积形态的成因既与坝前水流流态的三维特性有关,又与水库蓄水初期坝前淤积物颗粒特性有关.水库蓄水初期沉积在近坝区的泥沙颗粒较细,初始干容重较低,使得淤积物表现出一定的浮泥特性.坝前淤积总量较大主要是宽谷河段水流特性造成的;而基底深槽处淤积物厚度较大、淤积面呈水平状的主要原因则是浮泥状淤积物在重力作用下向河底运动、并沿深泓线在基底深槽中汇集.     

三峡库区（重庆段）城镇化综合水平评价与战略选择

随着三峡水库成功蓄水,百万移民宣告结束,各项事业百业待兴。重庆三峡库区生态环境要求标准高,库区农村人口数量多,就现阶段和未来很长的一个时期内加快重庆三峡库区城镇化进程,不失为一条保护库区生态环境和解决库区移民就业的有效途径。以人口、经济、城镇建设和生活质量为基础指标,建立城镇化评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对城镇化综合水平进行评价,将重庆三峡库区15个区县城镇化综合水平划分成四种类型。结果表明：城镇化综合水平在空间上呈现出＂西高东低＂的格局。最后以劳动地域分工理论为原则,分析城镇化动力机制,确定未来一阶段城镇化重点战略。     

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城市环境保护信息系统的研究

本文探讨了以互联网为平台、以客户/服务器(C/S)和浏览器/服务器(B/S)三层结构模型为基础的城市环保信息系统(GIS)。在分析比较两层与三层系统体系结构的基础上,提出系统构建的总体思路,并着重强调了构件技术在系统建设中的特殊作用。在网络环境下增强了客户端对于城市环保信息的可操作性,除实现对环保信息远程查询检索之外 ,还增加了远程数据录入、处理与分析的功能。在城市环保GIS中还引入环保专业分析模型 ,通过通用的接口平台,将专业分析模型与环保信息有机融合,实现了污染分析模型在地理空间上的三维可视化,为环保管理和环境保护决策提供了形象而定量化的依据。     

地震社会学与地震预报

人们对地震危险度感觉的三要素是；可预报的地震的摧毁程度，预报意见的准确度以及所预报的地震来临的迫切程度。这三要素既是地震预报问题，同时也是在地震社会学问题密切相关的。今后要研究多种严重不利因素与地震问题重合下的地震社会学问题。     

地球进化三定律与持续发展研究

地球是个有机整体，该整体不仅在不停地运动和变化，而且还在不断地进化，这种进化有其固有的规律。当前，由人类圈和全球环境构成的现代全球系统正处在新的突变期。为此，把现代全球系统演化同地球长期进化联系起来研究，对克服全球问题和实现持续发展是十分重要的。本文主要讨论地球进化的阶梯式上升（ｓｔｅｐｐｅｄｒｉｓｅ）、循环形式递增（ｐｒｏｇｒｅｓｓｉｖｅｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｏｆｃｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｍｓ）及进化与条件优化相依（ｃｏｒｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｏｐｔｉｍｉｚａｔｉｏｎ）三定律，以及该三定律与持续发展的关系。     

黄河三峡移民区大规模群发性滑坡灾害成因分析

黄河三峡系指黄河上游甘肃省永靖县境内的刘家峡、盐锅峡和八盘峡,其中盐锅峡移民区共安置移民986户,5527人,主要分布在永靖县盐锅峡镇所辖的黑方台台塬上下的10余个村庄中。黄河三峡移民区地质灾害主要为大规模群发性滑坡灾害,集中分布在黑方台台塬边坡地带。黑方台台塬面积约13.7 km2,台塬地面高出周围地形约100~133 m,自1968年上水灌溉以来,已累计发生滑坡灾害100余次,已造成40人死亡,直接经济损失约2.00亿元,间接经济损失5.00亿元。台塬长期大水漫灌是诱发本区大规模群发性滑坡反复发生的主要原因。     

The effects of pre-season high flows,climate, and the Three Gorges Dam on low flow at the Three Gorges Region,China

The efficient operation of a multipurpose reservoir requires information on high and low flows. However, analyses of inflows for high flows and for low flows are typically done independently. In this paper, we considered the joint dependence of the low flow on the preceding high flow volume and duration for the wet season in the Three Gorges region of the Yangtze River Basin in China. High flow volume and duration were found to have a strong association with the annual minimum 7-day flow in Cuntan, Wanxian, and Yichang stations. Furthermore, we identified the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and snow cover in the Tibetan Plateau to have statistically significant teleconnections with the annual minimum 7-day flow. Bayesian models that consider a different level of pooling of the site by site regressions were then developed for the annual minimum 7-day flow conditional on the climate indices and high flow volume (or duration). The full pooling model performed best, suggesting that a homogeneous regional response is best identified given the global climate predictors. Statistics such as the deviance information criterion and reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency, and coverage rate under cross validation indicate the good performance of the model. Snow cover in the western Tibetan Plateau and high flow volume were identified as the most influential factors of the annual minimum 7-day flow through their impact on water storage in the basin. Recent simulations since June 2003, when the Three Gorges Dam operation started, were used to analyse the effect of dam operation on the annual minimum 7-day flow. A comparison of observations and predictions during the post-dam period demonstrated that the dam operation effectively modifies the annual minimum 7-day flow period to have higher flows.     

地下水在地震前兆应力场演化过程中的作用

采用应力场与渗流场耦合的三维数值模拟方法,通过干模型和湿模型的对比,研究了地下水在地震前兆应力场演化过程中的作用。研究结果表明, 地下水的存在,不单增加了前兆应力场时空演化的流变性,并促使应力向断裂带聚集,而且还增加了震前的破裂水平。尤其是在短临阶段,这种作用更加显著, 但随深度的增加,地下水对应力场分布的影响作用逐渐减小。