基于生态位理论的东北三省政府干预强度与市场化水平格局演变研究

以“政府干预强度”和“市场化水平”为研究对象,通过对其生态系统的剖析,构建相应的评价指标体系及其生态位模型,并选取东北三省地级市为评价对象,对其“强政府弱市场”格局和演变趋势进行分析。定量分析的主要结论为：东北三省普遍存在“强政府弱市场”现状,其中黑龙江省最为突出,其次为吉林省、辽宁省;东北三省“强政府弱市场”格局出现多次波动,仅2003~2005年降幅较高,说明2003年“东北振兴战略”影响效果的持续性较短;东北各地市“强政府弱市场”格局具有明显的区域溢出效应,格局较明显的区域主要集中在离中心城市或沿海口岸较远的黑龙江省北部以及辽宁省、吉林省的部分内陆城市。     

Making ends meet, in the household and on the planet

Policy-making in relation to sustainable development is usually at the national (or, in relation to climate change, the global) level, yet the consumption it seeks to modify takes place at the household level. If households all ‘made ends meet’ in the same way then the much-relied upon notion of per capita consumption would be valid and we could rely on ‘top-down’ modelling to guide policy. Cultural Theory, however, predicts that there are five socially viable ways of making ends meet, and that all of them will be found (in varying proportions) within any nation. This prediction has been tested on a sample of 220 British households and shown to be well supported. Top-down modelling, it is argued, has to give way to a constructive interplay between the reflexive policy-maker and a plurally responsive citizenry. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations

The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO₂ sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems.     

Further results for astrophysics from the cosmology within the framework of the Projective Unified Field Theory

Recently the 5‐dimensional Projective Unified Field Theory (PUFT) of the author (Schmutzer 1995a, Schmutzer 1995b) has been applied to a closed homogeneous isotropic cosmological model with the result of a cosmology without big bang (Schmutzer 1999a, Schmutzer 1999b). Continuing this approach, in this paper following subjects are treated: recalculation of numerical values of cosmological quantities, exact solution of the field equations to a point‐like body, motion of a test body in such a field, definition of the empirical effective gravitational factor (“constant”), Einstein effects compared to the empirical situation, adiabatic approximation of the motion of an orbiting testbody under the influence of the expanding cosmos (transition of the ellipses to circles, decrease of the radius of the orbiting bodies, decrease of the excentricity, increase of the frequency of orbiting objects etc.), heat production in a moving body induced by the cosmological expansion with application to various cosmic objects.     

Pre-stack Kirchhoff depth migration local space-shift imaging condition: synthetic and data examples

Extracting accurate common image angle gathers from pre-stack depth migrations is important in the generation of any incremental uplift to the amplitude versus angle attributes and seismic inversions that can lead to significant impacts in exploration and development success. The commonly used Kirchhoff migration outputs surface common offset image gathers that require a transformation to angle gathers for amplitude versus angle analysis. The accuracy of this transformation is one of the factors that determine the robustness of the amplitude versus angle measurements. Here, we investigate the possibility of implementing an extended imaging condition, focusing on the space-lag condition, for generating subsurface reflection angle gathers within a Kirchhoff migration. The objective is to determine if exploiting the spatial local shift imaging condition can provide any increase in angle gather fidelity relative to the common offset image gathers. The same restrictions with a ray-based approach will apply using the extended imaging condition as both the offset and extended imaging condition method use travel times derived from solutions to an Eikonal equation. The aims are to offer an alternative ray-based method to generate subsurface angle gathers and to understand the impact on the amplitude versus angle response. To this end, the implementation of the space-shift imaging condition is discussed and results of three different data sets are presented. A layered three-dimensional model and a complex two-dimensional model are used to assess the space shift image gathers output from such a migration scheme and to evaluate the seismic attributes relative to the traditional surface offset common image gathers. The synthetic results show that the extended imaging condition clearly provides an uplift in the measured amplitude versus angle over the surface offset migration. The noise profile post-migration is also improved for the space-lag migration due to the double summation inside the migration. Finally, we show an example of a space-lag gather from deep marine data and compare the resultant angle gathers with those generated from an offset migration and a time-shift imaging condition Kirchhoff migration. The comparison of the real data with a well log shows that the space-lag result is a better match to the well compared to the time-lag extended imaging condition and the common offset Kirchhoff migration. Overall, the results from the synthetics and real data show that a Kirchhoff migration with an extended imaging condition is capable of generating subsurface angle gathers with an incremental improvement in amplitude versus angle fidelity and lower noise but comes at a higher computational cost.     

新型地震预警方法研究及预警能力分析

本文研究了一种不同于传统地震预警方法的新型预警方法。这种预警方法利用数据同化技术对实时波动场进行精确估计,然后再利用基于辐射传输理论的蒙特卡洛直接模拟法对波动能量的传播做数值模拟,并最终计算预警目标区烈度并做阈值判断发出预警警报。整个预警过程无需触发、无需定位、无需测定震级、无需利用衰减关系,较传统预警方法具有明显不同的技术手段,比较有效避免了传统地震预警方法中一系列基于经验统计规律的误差累积和单纯依靠初至P波信息在应对复杂地震时的局限性。本文选择了2011年3月11日日本M_w9.0地震和2016年2月6日台湾M_w6.7美浓地震作为预警模拟震例,分析并论证了本文预警方法在处理网外地震、网内地震以及复杂地震时的预警能力,最终得出本文预警方法在应对网内地震时具有良好的预警准确性和时效性,以及相对于传统预警方法在处理复杂地震时具有较大的优势。最后,总结并展望了本文研究工作的不足之处和有待继续研究的地方。     

Cosmology without Big Bang within the framework of the Projective Unified Field Theory and the influence on the motion of cosmic objects

The Projective Unified Field Theory having been developed by the author since 1957 is applied to a closed homogeneous isotropic cosmological model. By postulating a (new) conservation law for the scalaric substrate mass (derived from the balance equation of matter and leading to a basically new view on the concept of mass in context with the Mach principle) we obtained a coupled system of differential equations for the world radius and the scalaric world function, which could be treated numerically by Maple. Detailed calculations show that the big bang singularity of the Einstein theory can be avoided. Since the mass density and the temperature of the background radiation exhibit maxima at the same time after the cosmological “big start”, this fact could be of interest for cosmogonic activities. Within the framework of this theory there are hints for an antigravitational world era with repulsive forces after the big start. Furthermore, the balance equations for the energy and the angular momentum of a body as well as the equation of motion of a body (with a series of consequences) are derived. In this context we found a formula for the time dependence of the “effective Newtonian gravitational constant”. Further results refer to certain aspects for understanding the observed rotational curves of cosmic objects within galaxies as well as to the conservation of the number of photons and baryons and their mutual ratio etc.     

辽宁海洋生态系统恶化的经济学阐释

文章在辨析和定义海洋生态系统概念的基础上,分析辽宁海洋生态系统的恶化态势,主要体现在过度捕捞导致的海洋生物资源衰退,陆源污染、养殖污染和油类污染导致的海洋水体环境污染以及填海造地和海岸侵蚀等导致的海岸生态系统弱化。进而,从公地悲剧理论、环境库兹涅茨理论、外部性理论和产权理论4个维度做出具体的经济学阐释,阐明海洋生态系统恶化态势与经济开发行为之间的关系。     

Retrieval of super‐virtual refraction by cross‐correlation

Topography and severe variations of near‐surface layers lead to travel‐time perturbations for the events in seismic exploration. Usually, these perturbations could be estimated and eliminated by refraction technology. The virtual refraction method is a relatively new technique for retrieval of refraction information from seismic records contaminated by noise. Based on the virtual refraction, this paper proposes super‐virtual refraction interferometry by cross‐correlation to retrieve refraction wavefields by summing the cross‐correlation of raw refraction wavefields and virtual refraction wavefields over all receivers located outside the retrieved source and receiver pair. This method can enhance refraction signal gradually as the source–receiver offset decreases. For further enhancement of refracted waves, a scheme of hybrid virtual refraction wavefields is applied by stacking of correlation‐type and convolution‐type super‐virtual refractions. Our new method does not need any information about the near‐surface velocity model, which can solve the problem of directly unmeasured virtual refraction energy from the virtual source at the surface, and extend the acquisition aperture to its maximum extent in raw seismic records. It can also reduce random noise influence in raw seismic records effectively and improve refracted waves’ signal‐to‐noise ratio by a factor proportional to the square root of the number of receivers positioned at stationary‐phase points, based on the improvement of virtual refraction's signal‐to‐noise ratio. Using results from synthetic and field data, we show that our new method is effective to retrieve refraction information from raw seismic records and improve the accuracy of first‐arrival picks.     

一种基于面积对称模型的土地利用/覆被真伪变化图斑检测方法

不同时相土地利用/覆被数据间的空间配准误差,是产生土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑的一个主要原因。本文从土地利用/覆被原始图斑与其相邻的变化图斑间的空间关系角度,提出了由同一原始图斑产生的土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑的面积对称理论,设计和实现了针对因空间配准误差而导致的土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑自动化检测模型,并以内蒙古自治区通辽市奈曼旗1980年和2000年两期土地利用/覆被图对该模型进行了实验模拟。结果表明：当两期数据的空间配准误差不超过原始影像1个像元时,总体检测精度达到90%以上;误差不超过5个像元时,总体检测精度达到80%以上;误差不超过原始影像10个像元时,总体检测精度达到70％以上。同时,由于运行时唯一需设定的面积对称系数阈值可设为0.2-0.4（默认设为0.3）,该检测模型可适用于由空间配准误差引起的伪变化图斑的自动检查,可满足由于空间配准误差所引起土地利用/覆被伪变化图斑剔除的需求。