GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式(R42L9)与一全球海洋环流模式(T63L30)耦合形成的全球海洋-大气-陆面气候系统模式(GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分30 a的模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度(SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容.结果表明,COALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象.但COALS模式也存在明显的不足,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象,因此也影响了对南亚、东南亚降水年际变化的模拟能力.     

内蒙古二连浩特市—东乌珠穆沁旗半干旱荒漠草原区区域化探方法试验

内蒙古二连浩特市-东乌珠穆沁旗地区属半干旱荒漠草原区.1∶20万区域化探扫面应针对该类景观区微景观特点,选择土壤或水系沉积物测量方法开展工作.经试验确定采样粒级为-5～ 20目;采样密度2个点/km2;采样介质为残坡积物或冲、洪积物.经4个1∶20万图幅的区域化探扫面工作,取得了明显的异常圈定和地质找矿效果,方法技术有效.     

天目湖热力学状况的监测与分析

根据2001年6月～2002年5月在天目湖进行的每月一次的全湖水温观测以及2002年5月25～26日在1号点的定点24h连续水温观测资料,分析研究了天目湖水温时空分布、垂直分布、温跃层的形成与变化以及湖泊热力学对溶解氧、营养盐的影响,揭示了各自的基本变化规律。结果表明:天目湖水温的日变化、年变化及垂直分布明显,而其水平差异不大;温跃层随着季节的变化而呈现增强-稳定-减弱-消失的周期变化;水温的变化以及温跃层的存在引起了水中溶解氧以及营养盐的变化。     

洞庭湖河湖疏浚对洪水位影响分析

洞庭湖是长江中游的重要调蓄湖泊，但由于接纳湘江、资水、沅江、澧水四水和长江三口洪水、泥沙，造成河道湖泊泥沙淤积，洪水位抬高，加重湖区的防洪负担，造成严重的洪涝灾害。根据洞庭湖河湖疏浚规划和典型河段疏挖竣工资料，运用水力学和水文学方法对疏浚前后洪水位的变化进行了分析。     

鄱阳湖区平垸行洪、退田还湖后的防洪减灾形势分析

根据鄱阳湖区“退田还湖”的实际资料，采用洪水模拟的方法分析计算出“退田还湖”降低湖口站洪水位和减少1954年洪水超额分洪量，分析了“退田还湖”后鄱阳湖区的防洪减灾形势，提出应继续加强对鄱阳湖区防洪工程的建设，探讨了“退田还湖”后江湖洪水关系的变化趋势。     

太湖生态环境演化及其原因分析

太湖地处长江下游三角洲,水域面积为2338km²,平均水深1.9m,最大水深不足2.6m,为一典型的大型浅水湖泊。太湖流域地势平坦,河网密布,河湖水力关系复杂。其主要补给径流来自西南部的天目山区及西部的宜溧河流域。每年夏天,大部分入湖洪水通过位于东太湖的太浦河及东北部的望虞河分别排入黄浦江与长江,由于出入湖河道的特殊位置,使得太湖南部的换水周期较短而北部较长。近几十年来,太湖由于污染而逐步呈现富营养化特征,污染物主要来自北部的无锡市和常州市,通过河道排入太湖北部的五里湖与梅梁湾,因此上述两地的水质较南部差。在东太湖,水产养殖对水环境的影响很大,亦呈现出富营养化特征,并殃及该地区的供水,加之该地区为太湖主要的泄洪通道,因此泥沙淤积严重,而且水生植物生长旺盛,呈现出明显的沼泽化趋势;在太湖四周地区,由于湖泊围垦和水利工程建设,其污染净化能力将降低,从而加速水环境恶化的趋势。太湖所面临这些问题,有待于强化湖泊科学管理来解决。     

Estimating coefficients of volume compressibility from compression of strata and piezometric changes in a multiaquifer system in west Taiwan

This paper estimates the coefficients of volume compressibility from variation in compressible layer thickness and changes in piezometric heads by using detail ground surface surveys and a multilayer monitoring well at a selected site (Shigang) within the Choshui River alluvial fan in west Taiwan. The paper integrates various types of in situ monitoring tools, including leveling surveys, continuous global position system (GPS) stations, multilevel layer compression and groundwater pressure head-monitoring wells, to investigate the situation and progress of the subsidence problem in the region. The results from the cross-analyses of the measured data show that surface settlement caused by the compression of strata is between the depths of 60 and 210 m where the clayey stratum within 120-180 m was most pronounced and contributes up to 53% of the total compression. The results indicate that the clayey stratum is under normal consolidation. The results also reflect the fact that 20% of settlement contribution comes from the sandy stratum within 90-120 m; the elasto-plastic behavior of this sandy stratum is clear. The coefficients of volume compressibility of the clayey and sandy stratum analysed from the stratum's compression records; they were 6.38×10⁻⁸ and 5.71×10⁻⁹ m²/N, respectively. Ultimately, this parameter estimation would permit to control and predict land subsidence based on change in pressure head which are related to groundwater extraction.     

Overburden deformation associated with halokinesis in the Southern North Sea: implications for the origin of the Silverpit Crater

Gravitational collapse in response to the creation of salt swells and diapirs is a common phenomenon within regions such as the Southern North Sea. Although collapse faulting and slumping of linear salt swell flanks has previously been documented, the existence of concentric collapse structures surrounding diapirs and isolated salt lows is a recently recognised feature. 3-D seismic data from the Southern North Sea demonstrates that concentric collapse faulting around both diapirs and subcircular salt lows is common. The recognition of concentric collapse structures formed in response to salt withdrawal, and adjacent inflation, provides an alternative mechanism for the origin of the proposed Silverpit impact crater.     

Three-dimensional forward and backward modelling of diapirism: numerical approach and its applicability to the evolution of salt structures in the Pricaspian basin

Numerical studies of ductile deformations induced by salt movements have, until now, been restricted to two-dimensional (2D) modelling of diapirism. This paper suggests a numerical approach to model the evolution of three-dimensional (3D) salt structures toward increasing maturity. This approach is also used here to restore the evolution of salt structures through successive earlier stages. The numerical methodology is applied to study several model examples. We analyse a model of salt diapirs that develop from an initial random perturbation of the interface between salt and its overburden and restore the evolved salt diapirs to their initial stages. We show that the average restoration errors are less than 1%. An evolutionary model of a 2D salt wall loaded by a 2D pile of sediments predicts a decomposition of the salt wall into 3D diapiric structures when the overburden of salt is supplied by 3D synkinematic wedge of sediments. We model salt extrusion feeding a gravity current over the depositional surface and estimate an average rate of extrusion and horizontal velocity of salt spreading. Faulting of the overburden to salt overhangs initiates new secondary diapirs, and we analyse the growth of these secondary diapirs. We also study how lateral flow effects the evolution of salt diapirs. The shape of a salt diapir can be very different if the rate of horizontal flow is much greater than the initial rate of diapiric growth solely due to gravity. We discuss the applicability of the results of the models to the evolution of Late Permian salt structures in the Pricaspian basin (Russia and Kazakhstan). These structures are distinguishable into a variety of styles representing different stages of growth: salt pillows, diapirs, giant salt massifs, 2D diapiric walls and 3D stocks complicated by large overhangs. The different sizes, shapes and maturities of salt structures in different parts of the Pricaspian basin reflect areal differences in salt thickness and loading history. Our results suggest that the numerical methodology can be employed to analyse the evolution of all salt structures that have upbuilt through younger ductile overburdens.     

Transtensional deformation in the Lake Tahoe region, California and Nevada, USA

Dextral transtensional deformation is occurring along the Sierra Nevada–Great Basin boundary zone (SNGBBZ) at the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada microplate. In the Lake Tahoe region of the SNGBBZ, transtension is partitioned spatially and temporally into domains of north–south striking normal faults and transitional domains with conjugate strike-slip faults. The normal fault domains, which have had large Holocene earthquakes but account only for background seismicity in the historic period, primarily accommodate east–west extension, while the transitional domains, which have had moderate Holocene and historic earthquakes and are currently seismically active, primarily record north–south shortening. Through partitioned slip, the upper crust in this region undergoes overall constrictional strain.Major fault zones within the Lake Tahoe basin include two normal fault zones: the northwest-trending Tahoe–Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ) and the north-trending West Tahoe–Dollar Point fault zone. Most faults in these zones show eastside down displacements. Both of these fault zones show evidence of Holocene earthquakes but are relatively quiet seismically through the historic record. The northeast-trending North Tahoe–Incline Village fault zone is a major normal to sinistral-oblique fault zone. This fault zone shows evidence for large Holocene earthquakes and based on the historic record is seismically active at the microearthquake level. The zone forms the boundary between the Lake Tahoe normal fault domain to the south and the Truckee transition zone to the north.Several lines of evidence, including both geology and historic seismicity, indicate that the seismically active Truckee and Gardnerville transition zones, north and southeast of Lake Tahoe basin, respectively, are undergoing north–south shortening. In addition, the central Carson Range, a major north-trending range block between two large normal fault zones, shows internal fault patterns that suggest the range is undergoing north–south shortening in addition to east–west extension.A model capable of explaining the spatial and temporal partitioning of slip suggests that seismic behavior in the region alternates between two modes, one mode characterized by an east–west minimum principal stress and a north–south maximum principal stress as at present. In this mode, seismicity and small-scale faulting reflecting north–south shortening concentrate in mechanically weak transition zones with primarily strike-slip faulting in relatively small-magnitude events, and domains with major normal faults are relatively quiet. A second mode occurs after sufficient north–south shortening reduces the north–south S_hmax in magnitude until it is less than S_v, at which point S_v becomes the maximum principal stress. This second mode is then characterized by large earthquakes on major normal faults in the large normal fault domains, which dominate the overall moment release in the region, producing significant east–west extension.