尼泊尔Ms8.1地震前我国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化

根据1998~2013中国地壳运动观测网络、中国数字地震观测网络工程和中国大陆构造环境监测网络流动重力观测成果,给出了中国西藏及周边地区的重力年变率分布。结合青藏高原冰川消融和高原湖泊水位变化,估算了由陆地水储量变化引起的区域重力效应。基于50km平滑半径的高斯滤波,给出了测区内15a时间尺度的重力变化空间分布,并初步探讨了尼泊尔Ms8.1地震孕育的重力场长期背景趋势变化。结果表明:1)流动重力典型测点的时间序列表现出明显的线性变化特征,表明测点附近区域的长期重力变化以线性上升趋势为主,反映了区域重力逐年累积增加的背景效应;2)中国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化在空间分布上具有显著的不均匀性和分区现象,这与青藏高原复杂的变形构造和动力学系统密切相关。喜马拉雅活动构造带在15a时间尺度上明显呈正重力变化趋势,可能与印度板块与欧亚板块存在的持续挤压变形引起的地下物质重新分布与调整有关,反映了大震孕育过程中地壳变形和介质变化引起的震区周围应力与能量的累积。     

大光斑波形数据在土地覆盖分类的适用性分析

针对GLAS地学激光测高系统是冰、云和陆地高程卫星(ICESat)的唯一监测工具,能够记录地表光斑内的地物信息,是否能应用于黄土高原土地覆盖分类的问题进行了研究。利用粒子群和最小二乘法相结合的方法对GLAS波形数据进行高斯分解,获取高斯波个数、波形总能量、波形信号起始和信号结束位置4个波形参数;基于波形自动分类方法对黄土高原水体、森林、城市用地、其他地类(裸地、低矮植被等)进行分类。通过基于覆盖相同研究区域的30 m地表覆盖数据(Globe Land30),验证分类的准确性。结果表明,GLAS大光斑波形数据对黄土高原的4种地类能够很好地进行区分,总分类精度高达87.68%,Kappa系数为65.79%。研究表明,GLAS波形数据可以作为获取土地覆盖信息的有效数据源,为研究黄土高原土地覆盖变化提供更丰富的数据支持。     

GRACE时变重力数据后处理方法评价

针对GRACE Level2卫星时变重力数据后处理方法如何评价的问题,该文以中国数字地震观测网络获得的青藏高原地区地面重力变化图像为参考,基于平均结构相似性等图像相似度指标,研究了与该区域地面重力观测同期、不同后处理方法得到的GRACE卫星重力变化图像的可靠性。结果显示,GRACE卫星重力和地面重力观测结果具有一定的可比性,滑动窗口去相关滤波和高斯400 km滤波的组合方法可以获得最优的处理效果。本文的方法和结论对GRACE及GRACE Follow-On卫星重力数据应用中后处理方法和参数的选取有一定的借鉴意义。     

1971-2010年河南省霜期的时空分布及其对气温的响应

利用1971-2010年河南省均匀分布的110个地面气象站霜的观测资料,采用线性倾向率和单相关分析法,对近40 a河南省初霜期、终霜期和无霜期的时空分布特征及其对气温的响应进行研究,利用M-K法分析霜期的突变特征。结果表明：1971-2010年河南省平均无霜期为221.3 d,纬度与初霜期（R=-0.806）和无霜期（R=-0.707）均呈显著负相关,与终霜期（R=0.557）呈显著正相关;初霜期以2.6 d/10 a的速率呈明显推迟（p<0.01）,而终霜期的线性变化趋势不明显,无霜期以4.7 d/10 a的速率呈明显延长（p<0.01）;初霜期、终霜期和无霜期的突变点均在1998年。从各地区看,初霜期在各地区呈明显推迟,豫西地区推迟趋势最大（3.5 d/10 a,p<0.01）;终霜期仅在豫西和豫南地区呈显著提前;除豫东地区外,无霜期在其余5个地区均呈明显延长,豫西地区延长趋势最大（7.7 d/10 a,p<0.01）。从各观测站霜期的变化趋势空间分布来看,初霜期显著推后、终霜期显著提前和无霜期明显延长的站点分布在豫西和豫南地区。河南省初霜期与10月、终霜期与3月气温因子相关性较强;初霜期推迟和终霜期提前主要由气温升高引起的,其中平均最低气温是最重要的影响因素。初霜期推迟和终霜期提前导致无霜期延长。     

北京一次积层混合云系结构和水分收支的数值模拟分析

本文利用中国气象科学研究院(CAMS)中尺度云分辨模式对2007年10月的一次积层混合云降水过程进行了数值模拟。利用模拟结果结合实测资料, 研究了积层混合云系的宏微观结构和降水特征, 并分析了云系的水分收支及降水效率。结果表明:积层混合云是导致此次北京降水的主要云型;积层混合云降水分布不均匀, 云系中微物理量的水平和垂直分布都不均匀, 具有混合相云的云物理结构。冷云降水过程占主导地位, 雪的融化对雨水的形成贡献最大。北京区域降水过程的主要水汽源地为黄海海面及蒙古国, 两支气流在陕西北部汇合后的西南气流将水汽输送到华北地区, 北京区域以外, 水汽和水凝物主要从西边界和南边界输送到域内。北京区域降水主要时段内, 水物质通量在水平方向上为净流入。对北京区域水汽、水凝物和总水物质的水分收支各项的估算表明, 水物质基本达到平衡。北京区域从2007年10月5日20时至6日14时, 总水成物降水效率、凝结率、凝华率及总水凝物降水效率分别为5.6%、4.77%、4.19%、44.9%。     

论河南“75.8”特大暴雨的研究:回顾与评述

“75.8”河南特大暴雨的发生已经过去40年了,它在人们的记忆中留下深刻的印象。这场暴雨在1975年8月5—7日3 d之内在河南南部的局部地区降下了1605 mm的总雨量,1、3、6、12 h雨量均破中国降水的历史记录。由于水库垮坝,洪水夺走了该区约2万6千人的生命,经济损失巨大。在这40年间,中国的暴雨研究和预报都取得了重大的进展。其中一个重要原因是中国的气象和水文部门从这场空前强烈的大暴雨和大洪水事件中吸取了宝贵的经验教训,多年来,以这场超级大暴雨洪水为借鉴,不断促进和鼓励中国气象学家向暴雨研究和预报发展的更高目标前进。有感于此,回顾和评述了当年老一辈科学家在比较艰苦的条件下所进行的这次大暴雨的研究活动,以及所获得的卓越科学成果。即使从今天来看,其中不少成果也具有创新性的意义,在中国暴雨研究的发展史上,占有十分重要甚至里程碑式的地位。文中重点对其中的关键科学问题进行了评述,包括:(1)“75.8”特大暴雨的雨情和极值;(2)“75.8”特大暴雨发生的原因;(3)“75.8”特大暴雨的动力诊断;(4)暴雨中尺度分析;(5)地形对暴雨的增幅作用。希望以此纪念河南“75.8”特大暴雨发生40周年,并表达对参与此次研究活动的老一辈科学家深深的怀念和敬意。     

THE EFFECTS OF THE PLATEAU'S TOPOGRAPHIC GRADIENT ON ROSSBY WAVES AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION

By using barotropic model equations, this article analyzed the characteristics of Rossby waves, the propagation features of wave energy and the influence of dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Rossby waves, and the focus is on discussing the plateau's topographic gradient effects on atmospheric Rossby waves. Then based on the WRF3.2 and the NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data, we devised comparative tests of changing the plateau's topographic gradient and simulated a process of persistent heavy rain that happened in May 2010 in South China. The results are shown as follows. The Tibetan Plateau’s topography is conducive to the formation of atmospheric Rossby waves. while the plateau's terrain, its friction and heating effects can all make the atmospheric Rossby waves develop into the planetary waves; The effects of plateau's north and south slopes on the Rossby wave’ phase velocity is opposite, and when the slope reached a certain value can the quasi-steady normal fluctuations be generated; Simultaneously, due to the plateau's topographic gradient, descending motion appears at the west side of the plateau while ascending motion appears at the east side, and the vertical movement increased with the amplification of topographic gradients. The plateau's topographic gradient also obviously amplified the precipitation in South China, and the rainfall area increased with the amplification of topographic gradients and gradually moved from south to north and from west to east, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of convective activities in the downstream areas of the Tibetan Plateau; Moreover, for the plateau’s dynamic and thermal effects, the Rossby wave’ propagation shows upstream effects of energy dispersion, so the plateau can then affect the weather in downstream areas. Moreover, the wave group velocity increased with the degree of topographic slope.     

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.     

Growth of red gurnard (Teleostei: Triglidae) from Pegasus bay,Canterbury, New Zealand

Growth of the red gurnard, Chelidonichthys kumu (Lesson and Garnot), from Pegasus Bay, Canterbury, was measured during 1966–67. Otoliths were used as an indicator of fish growth; mean length‐at‐age data were obtained from back‐calculated fish lengths at the time of formation of successive annual rings in the otoliths. Growth in length was found to be adequately expressed by the von Bertalanffy growth equation :

l_t = 52.0 [1 ‐ e‐^{0.406 (t‐o.291)}]

(where l_t is the fork length in cm at age t). The length: weight relationship was:

w = 78.56 × 10^‐4 l ^3.072

(where w is the weight in grams). From this relationship, growth in weight was described by the equation:

w_t = 1469 [1 ‐ e‐0.406 (t‐0.291)]³.     

浙江南部沿岸产卵场春、夏季鱼卵、仔稚鱼种类组成与分布

根据2011年4月、5月与6月对浙江南部沿岸产卵场进行的共3个航次的调查资料,对该海域的鱼卵、仔稚鱼的种类组成和数量分布进行了分析,结果表明,共发现鱼卵、仔稚鱼72个种类,分别隶属11目38科48属。其中鱼卵29种,分别隶属6目18科24属;仔稚鱼55种,分别隶属10目29科40属。4—6月仔稚鱼数量呈逐月递减的趋势,而鱼卵数量6月最多,5月最少。鱼卵优势种4月以斑鰶、棱鱚、小黄鱼与蓝点马鲛为主,5月以斑鰶、鳀、龙头鱼、银鲳、蓝点马鲛与石首鱼科为主,6月以鳀、龙头鱼、多鳞鱚与鲱科鱼类为主;仔稚鱼优势种4月以虾虎鱼类、褐菖鲉与平鲉科为主,5月以鳀、虾虎鱼类、棱鱚、斑鰶与长鳍篮子鱼为主,6月以鳀与虾虎鱼类为主。斑鰶、鲳鱼、小黄鱼、棱鱚、蓝点马鲛与褐菖鲉的产卵盛期为4月,而鳀与龙头鱼的产卵盛期为6月。