A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice.     

几种典型近地表有限导体瞬变电磁特征响应研究

近地表有限导体的瞬变电磁响应中包含其形状、结构特征,如何建立这些特征与其响应之间的关系是近地表有限导体探测与识别的核心问题.本文建立了几种典型有限导体响应的三维感应偶极子模型,通过有限导体早期幂函数衰减的幅度与速率、晚期指数衰减的幅度与时间常数共四个模型参数表征有限导体的形状和结构特征,利用最小二乘拟合算法提取这些模型参数,揭示有限导体的形状、结构特征与模型参数之间的内在联系.理论与实验研究结果表明:具有绕球心旋转对称性的球形目标体,其三维感应偶极子响应完全相同,早期响应呈幂函数衰减,晚期呈e指数衰减,信号幅度和时间常数均能很好反映球体半径与材料特性;具有绕轴旋转对称性目标体,其三维感应偶极子响应部分相同,早期幂函数衰减的幅度与速率主要体现目标体的长度特征,晚期e指数衰减的时间常数体现了目标体的外径与壁厚特征;非轴对称性目标体,其三维感应偶极子响应均不相同,各个感应偶极子参数差异较大.本文的研究对提高瞬变电磁系统区分轴对称目标体与金属碎片能力,降低系统探测虚警率具有重要意义.     

基于小波变换的长周期桥梁选波方法研究

时程分析输入地震波的选取对长周期大跨度桥梁影响显著。本文基于规范目标谱,以MATLAB为依托,通过选取最优小波基并利用小波系数迭代法实现频域调整,使地震波反应谱不断逼近给定目标谱,最后结合相对误差和长周期拟合参数两个指标进行综合评价,选取适用于长周期大跨度桥梁的时程分析地震波,提出长周期桥梁全过程批量选波方法。将该方法应用于奉节长江大桥,与基于时域调整方法的Seismo Match选波软件对比选波效果,并将选波结果应用于背景桥梁的时程分析。结果表明,利用本文选波方法所得结构关键截面响应与软件选波所得响应在横桥向和竖桥向存在一定差异。本文方法可为长周期大跨度桥梁时程分析选波提供参考。     

近地小行星探测目标选择

从数以万计的近地小行星(NEAs)中选择探测目标,是一项非常重要的工作.选择小行星时需要考虑的主要问题是:NEAs的轨道参数、自旋周期、大小、科学价值、表面特征以及到达NEAs的时间.本文采用排除法从众多近地小行星中确定候选者,并根据科学目标的要求确定最终探测目标.     

Calibration of resistance factor for design of pile foundations considering feasibility robustness

The resistance factor for pile foundations in load and resistance factor design (LRFD) is traditionally calibrated considering target reliability index (β_T) and statistics of load and resistance bias factors. However, the resistance bias factor is hard to quantify statistically. Consequently, the design obtained using the calibrated resistance factor can still miss β_T if the variation in resistance bias factor has been underestimated. In this paper, we propose a new resistance factor calibration approach to address this dilemma by considering “feasibility robustness” of design in the calibration process. Herein, the feasibility robustness is defined as a probability that the β_T requirement can still be satisfied even in the presence of uncertainty or variation in the computed bearing capacity. For illustration, LRFD approach for pile foundations commonly used in Shanghai, China is examined. Emphasis is placed on re-calibration of resistance factors at various feasibility robustness levels, with due consideration of the variation in the resistance bias factor. A case study is presented to illustrate the use of the re-calibrated resistance factors. The results show that the feasibility robustness is gained at the expense of cost efficiency; in other words, the two objectives are conflicting. To aid in the design decision-making, an optimal feasibility robustness level and corresponding resistance factors are suggested in the absence of a designer’s preference.     

数字地质与矿产资源评价

数学地质已经为我国地球科学研究作出了杰出的贡献。随着信息技术的发展,数学地质的信息化程度也越来越高,称之为＂数字地质＂。分析了数字地质的发展,介绍了目前数字地质的研究现状及在我国的实际应用。     

新疆北山黑山岭一带多元信息综合分析与找矿靶区优选

以现代成矿理论为指导,通过GIS平台,经数据综合分析,提取新疆北山黑山岭一带地质、化探、物探、遥感和矿产等多元找矿信息,确定本区成矿要素,圈定出7个找矿靶区.采用成矿要素加权法对靶区进行优选和分类,并对优选找矿靶区进行野外验证,发现多处金、铜、钒矿点.表明在该区进行多元找矿信息综合分析与找矿靶区优选是有效的,可为新疆北...     

Using existing scientific capacity to set targets for ecosystem-based management: A Puget Sound case study

Human actions have altered the structure and function of coastal ecosystems worldwide. In many locations, the overall portfolio of goods, cultural amenities, and supporting services provided by the marine environment has deteriorated. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) offers significant promise for addressing these issues because it is a comprehensive and integrated approach designed to reconcile conflicts and trade-offs among users of marine resources. A key step in the implementation of EBM is the establishment of target reference levels, or desired states, for indicators that reflect the status of the ecosystem. This paper reviews five approaches, borrowed from a variety of disciplines, to establish target reference levels for EBM. The approaches include the use of existing reference levels, reference directions, and reference levels based on nonlinear functional relationships, baselines, or social norms. Each approach is particularly suitable for EBM because it can be used alone or in combination with others to contextualize status for a diverse suite of ecosystem goals influenced by a wide variety of human activities. Perhaps most importantly, these approaches offer a prospectus for moving forward with EBM by using readily available information, motivating existing scientific capacity, and addressing trade-offs implicit to the setting of targets. This last point is articulated via examples of how each type of reference level might be applied in Puget Sound, WA, USA, where the efforts of scientists, managers, and policy makers have aligned recently in the interest of EBM implementation.     

Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis: an integrated approach for siting problems

A methodology is proposed to determine design earthquakes for site-specific studies such as the siting of critical structures (power plants, waste disposals, large dams, etc.), strategic structures (fire stations, military commands, hospitals, etc.), or for seismic microzoning studies, matching the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. This goal is achieved by calculating the source contribution to hazard and the magnitude–distance deaggregation, showing that, varying the selected frequency and the level of hazard, the reference earthquakes are changed as a result. A procedure is then adopted to minimize the residuals between the uniform hazard spectrum (target motion) and the design earthquake spectrum, to provide a specific earthquake scenario encompassing all the frequencies of the target motion. Finally, some considerations on the use and the influence exerted by ground motion uncertainty (σ) on hazard deaggregation are outlined.     

湘西自治州北部铅锌矿找矿标志及找矿远景区

湘西自治州北部铅锌矿带,处于桑植复向斜西南段,长100km以上,宽50km左右,矿带内铅锌矿点广布,受地层、构造、岩性的控制。上寒武统耗子沱群至下奥陶统大湾组共有7个含矿层位,北东向背斜倾伏端及北东向断裂、层间裂隙以及次级北西向横跨背斜是矿床控矿构造,有矿体赋存的含矿层有明显的硅化作用,且硅化体中Pb,Zn,Cu明显富集,分别为地层的66、32、8倍,Sr/Ba比值为0.60,无矿存在的硅化体则Pb,Zn,Cu含量接近地层或稍高于地层,Sr/Ba比值高达1.15。在砂子坡背斜南翼、红岩溪背斜北东端和南西倾伏端、盐井背斜,下奥陶统红花园组顶部含矿层内为找矿远景区。