黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析

采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Ya-mamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。     

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate—A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970–2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970–2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

珠江口盆地沉降史定量模拟和分析

运用Petrosys盆地模拟系统，定量和动态地模拟了珠江口盆地三个主要坳陷的沉降过程，论述了沉降速率的变化与生储盖发育之间的关联，认为珠江口盆地构造沉降史具有幕式、多阶段变化的特征。盆地第一幕和第二幕沉降是盆地发育的主要时期，奠定了盆地的构造格架，形成了盆地主要的沉积地层和油气资源。第三幕沉降为盆地的改造和完成阶段，是盆地区域盖层发育的主要时期。     

GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析

GRAPES是中国新一代数值天气预报模式。使用GRAPES中尺度模式产品和常规观测资料,分析检验了2005、2006年汛期发生在长江流域的11次主要降水天气过程,得到:GRAPES模式对于长江流域的预报,无论是降水、天气形势还是物理量都有比较强的预报能力;GRAPES模式对级别较大的降水预报容易出现漏报,而不易出现空报,对于10mm以下的雨区预报比较准确,而对于大于50mm的雨区预报,尤其是大于100mm的降水中心存在较大的偏差;对于西太平洋副热带高压的预报比实际情况偏南、偏东;对于水汽通量散度的预报与实际情况比较吻合。     

Climatic change during the last 4000 years in the southern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang, northwest China

In this study, a ca. 4000 cal. yr ancient lacustrine (or wetland) sediment record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin is used to reconstruct the history of climate change. Six radiocarbon dates on organic matter were obtained. δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of carbonate, pollen and sediment particle size were analysed for climate proxies. The proxies indicate that a drier climate prevailed in the area before ca. 1010 BC and during period 1010 BC–AD 500 climate then changed rapidly and continuously from dry to moist, but after about AD 500 climate generally shows dry condition. Several centennial‐scale climatic events were revealed, with the wettest spell during AD 450–550, and a relatively wetter interval between AD 930–1030. Pollen results show that regional climate may influence human agricultural activities. Spectral analysis of mean grain size (MGS) proxy reveals statistically pronounced cyclic signals, such as ca. 200 yr, ca. 120 yr, ca. 90 yr, ca. 45 yr and ca. 33 or 30 yr, which may be associated with solar activities, implying that solar variability plays an important role in the decadal‐ and centennial‐scale climate variations in the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupled changes in sand grain size and sand transport driven by changes in the upstream supply of sand in the Colorado River: Relative importance of changes in bed-sand grain size and bed-sand area

Sand transport in the Colorado River in Marble and Grand canyons was naturally limited by the upstream supply of sand. Prior to the 1963 closure of Glen Canyon Dam, the river exhibited the following four effects of sand supply limitation: (1) hysteresis in sediment concentration, (2) hysteresis in sediment grain size coupled to the hysteresis in sediment concentration, (3) production of inversely graded flood deposits, and (4) development or modification of a lag between the time of a flood peak and the time of either maximum or minimum (depending on reach geometry) bed elevation. Construction and operation of the dam has enhanced the degree to which the first two of these four effects are evident, and has not affected the degree to which the last two effects of sand supply limitation are evident in the Colorado River in Marble and Grand canyons. The first three of the effects involve coupled changes in suspended-sand concentration and grain size that are controlled by changes in the upstream supply of sand. During tributary floods, sand on the bed of the Colorado River fines; this causes the suspended sand to fine and the suspended-sand concentration to increase, even when the discharge of water remains constant. Subsequently, the bed is winnowed of finer sand, the suspended sand coarsens, and the suspended-sand concentration decreases independently of discharge. Also associated with these changes in sand supply are changes in the fraction of the bed that is covered by sand. Thus, suspended-sand concentration in the Colorado River is likely regulated by both changes in the bed-sand grain size and changes in the bed-sand area. A physically based flow and suspended-sediment transport model is developed, tested, and applied to data from the Colorado River to evaluate the relative importance of changes in the bed-sand grain size and changes in the bed-sand area in regulating suspended-sand concentration. Although the model was developed using approximations for steady, uniform flow, and other simplifications that are not met in the Colorado River, the results nevertheless support the idea that changes in bed-sand grain size are much more important than changes in bed-sand area in regulating the concentration of suspended sand.     

Pleistocene tectonics inferred from fluvial terraces of the northern Upper Rhine Graben, Germany

This study of fluvial terraces of the River Rhine and tributaries aims to search for indications of Pleistocene tectonic activity. The study area includes the northern Upper Rhine Graben (URG), the Mainz Basin and the adjacent Rhenish Massif with the Middle Rhine Valley. High rates of Quaternary surface processes, large amount of human modifications, relatively slow tectonic deformation and presently low intra-plate seismic activity characterize this area. Therefore, the records of relatively slow tectonic deformation are less well preserved and thus difficult to detect. This study uses the relative position of fluvial terraces to determine the more local effects of fault movements on the terraces and to evaluate their displacement rates and patterns. The research is based on a review of previous terrace studies and new terrace mapping from the eastern Mainz Basin and the bordering URG using topographic map interpretations and field observations. This newly mapped sequence of terrace surfaces can be correlated to other terraces in the vicinity on the basis of relative height levels. Terrace correlation between the western Mainz Basin and Middle Rhine Valley relies on a single chronostratigraphic unit (Mosbach sands) and additional relative height correlations. This is the first study to present a continuous correlation of terraces from the western margin of the URG to the Rhenish Massif and enables the study of the transition from the subsiding graben to the uplifted Rhenish Massif. By means of a longitudinal profile, which ranges from the URG to the Rhenish Massif, the influence of individual fault movements on the terrace levels and the large-scale regional uplift is demonstrated. It is evident from the profile that the uplift of Early to Middle Pleistocene terraces increases northwards, towards the Rhenish Massif. The uplift was diachronic, with a significant pulse occurring first in the northern URG (Lower Pleistocene) and later in the Rhenish Massif (Middle Pleistocene). The largest vertical displacements are recorded for the boundary fault separating the Mainz Basin and the Rhenish Massif (Hunsrück–Taunus Boundary Fault) and for faults bounding the northeastern Mainz Basin. The motions and displacement rates calculated for individual faults indicate deformation rates in the order of 0.01–0.08 mm/year. At this stage, the calculation of displacement rates depends mostly on a single dated stratigraphic unit. Additional dating of terrace deposits is urgently needed to better constrain the temporal development of the terrace sequence and the impact of tectonic movements.     

氮氧同位素在河流硝酸盐研究中的应用

多年来，世界各地河流普遍存在硝酸盐污染问题。为控制河流的硝酸盐污染，确定河水中硝酸盐的来源以及研究氮的循环过程就显得尤为重要。由于在不同成因下，硝酸盐的δ¹⁵N和δ¹⁸O存在着较大差异，因此利用氮、氧同位素方法研究河流硝酸盐问题正日益受到国内外研究人员的重视。综述了用硝酸盐中氮、氧同位素来研究河流硝酸盐的不同来源(大气沉降、化肥、牲畜粪、土壤硝酸盐等)和示踪其地球化学循环过程，特别是反硝化过程，这两方面的研究进展，并对我国河流硝酸盐研究现状进行了讨论及提出今后的研究方向。      

Dating of lower terrace sediments from the Middle Rhine area, Germany

Modern and known-age Pleistocene fluvial sediments were investigated by optical dating of quartz to test the suitability of the approach for dating deposits from the deeply incised Middle Rhine Valley. Samples from modern flood sediments revealed skewed distributions indicating different residual levels of equivalent dose (D_e) within the different aliquots. Nevertheless, a substantial number of aliquots from the modern deposits reflect D_e values close to zero. For the Pleistocene samples, optical ages are in general consistent with age control given by the presence of the Laacher See Tephra and radiocarbon dating. However, some samples overestimate the known age by a few thousand years when using the arithmetic mean. This is apparently explained by including aliquots in the determination of mean D_e where the optical signal was incompletely bleached at deposition. The most difficult issue in this context is identifying a suitable approach that can distinguish between the variability of D_e due to partial bleaching and microdosimetry. However, even when considering these limitations it appears that optical dating will by a quite suitable method to date Pleistocene sediments from such a complex fluvial environment, especially when focusing on a precision scale beyond a few thousand years.