关于中国大陆动力学与造山带研究的几点思考

根据人类社会和我国发展的新需求和当代地学的新发展，就我国大陆动力学造山带研究的学术思路、起点、科学目标和关键科学问题与主要研究内容及方法进行了分析讨论，提出了几点思考建议。面对地学 发展的挑战与机遇，制定地学前沿领域研究战略，面向全球，从我国大陆地质实际出发，充分发挥地域优势与特色，突出中国大陆动力学关键科学问题，建立持续研究基地，重点解剖，重点突破。以大陆动力学研究为突破口、源头创新，参与国际地学发展与竞争，进入世界地学先进行列，为我国从地学大国走向地学强国而努力，作为中国应有的贡献。     

技术关联、交通可达性与企业生产率——基于公路和铁路的研究

企业是区域经济发展的微观基础。企业生产率增长会影响区域长期经济发展,因此有必要深入分析企业生产率变动的影响因素和内在机制。基于中国工业企业年度调查数据（ASIF）,通过两阶段回归模型（2SLS）探讨企业与区域产业环境间的技术关联对企业生产率的影响,并分析不同交通类型的区域可达性的调节作用差异。结果显示：① 企业与区域间的技术关联越高,企业的全要素生产率会越高。② 区域可达性能够调节技术关联与企业生产率间的关系,且异质性交通网络的调节效应不同。在公路可达性高的区域内,企业生产率受到企业与区域间技术关联的影响较强;相反,提升区域铁路可达性则主要表现为削弱技术关联对企业生产率的作用。③ 区域可达性的调节效应还存在产业和空间异质性。比起劳动密集型企业,资本、技术密集型企业的生产率与技术关联间的关系受区域可达性的影响更明显。对于不同区域,公路可达性会使东部企业的生产率更依赖技术关联,而中西部企业刚好相反;铁路可达性则能促使东部企业发生“突破性”的生产率变化,对中西部企业没有明显影响。     

基于同行评审视角的地理学论文写作与投稿

地理学论文是地理学研究成果的重要体现形式,也是地理科技信息传递和存储的重要载体。如何将科研成果以论文形式较快地发表于影响力较大的科技期刊,让科研成果得到社会认可,是地理工作者最关心的问题。在分析地理学论文的潜在期刊类型及目标期刊的选择原则基础上,指出具有统一在线采编系统的期刊集群将成为发展趋势并极大地方便作者投稿。在分析了当前学术期刊同行评审形式及同行评审专家选择原则的基础上,从同行评审视角对论文写作过程中的选题创新性、研究方法、摘要、引言、讨论与结论、地理图表、参考文献等内容进行了探讨。最后,在分析同行审稿意见类型的基础上,将同行评审意见概括为修稿或退稿2种类型,针对性地提出作者应如何根据审稿意见进行论文修改并对审稿意见进行回复;对于退稿意见,也应该认真分析同行专家的评审意见,找出文章的问题所在,进行文章研究方法、研究内容等方面的全面修改或完善,在确定解决相关问题后再重新投稿。地理学论文是地理学研究成果的重要体现形式,也是地理科技信息传递和存储的重要载体。如何将科研成果以论文形式较快地发表于影响力较大的科技期刊,让科研成果得到社会认可,是地理工作者最关心的问题。在分析地理学论文的潜在期刊类型及目标期刊的选择原则基础上,指出具有统一在线采编系统的期刊集群将成为发展趋势并极大地方便作者投稿。在分析了当前学术期刊同行评审形式及同行评审专家选择原则的基础上,从同行评审视角对论文写作过程中的选题创新性、研究方法、摘要、引言、讨论与结论、地理图表、参考文献等内容进行了探讨。最后,在分析同行审稿意见类型的基础上,将同行评审意见概括为修稿或退稿2种类型,针对性地提出作者应如何根据审稿意见进行论文修改并对审稿意见进行回复;对于退稿意见,也应该认真分析同行专家的评审意见,找出文章的问题所在,进行文章研究方法、研究内容等方面的全面修改或完善,在确定解决相关问题后再重新投稿。     

Multi-regional economic impacts of recreational fisheries: Analysis of Small Sea Ranch in Gyeong-Nam Province,Korea

The economic impacts of recreational fishing in Small Sea Ranch in Gyeong-Nam (GN) province, Korea, are calculated using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to overcome the weakness of a single-region IO model that ignores the spread effects in other provinces. First, multiplier decomposition analysis is conducted to substantiate the existence of strong economic linkages between GN and other provinces by calculating intra-regional effects, net closed-loop effects, net open-loop effects and spillover coefficients. Subsequently, the economic impacts from spending by anglers’ visits to Small Sea Ranch are computed using a 161-sector MRIO model for each of the sixteen provinces in Korea. The results show that there exist strong relationships between the economy of GN and those of the other provinces, and that only around 68% of the economic impacts of anglers’ spending on the total output in Korea accrues in GN, with the remaining impacts (32%) being accounted for in non-GN provinces. This indicates the importance of using a multi-regional framework to estimate the economic impacts of recreational fisheries for a region whose economy relies heavily on the economies of other regions.     

Introducing population-adjusted historical contributions to global warming

The 1997 Brazilian Proposal suggested that differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on the impact of their historic greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature rise. In this paper, we develop methodologies for (and undertake) population-adjusted historical responsibility calculations. These adjust national-level historical responsibility calculations for historical population trends. We find a weak correlation between current per capita emissions levels and population-adjusted historical responsibility. Our calculations may contribute to burden sharing schemes in future climate agreements.     

山东某场地概率地震危险性分析

利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法,对山东某场地进行地震危险性分析,通过对该场地划分潜在震源区,确定地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,计算分析地震危险性概率,基本确定对该场地地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,并确定该场地50年超越概率10%的水平向基岩地震动加速度峰值。结果发现,CPSHA方法以具体的构造尺度和更加细致的构造标志来划分潜在震源区,使潜在震源区规模缩减,从而更能反映地震活动在空间分布上的不均匀性。     

End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.     

2013—2014冬半年北京重污染天气气象传输条件分析及预报指数初建

本文结合地面常规观测资料和空气质量数据,利用聚类分析方法对2013—2014年冬半年北京地区的气象传输轨迹特征进行了统计分析,并通过潜在源区贡献法(PSCF)分析了污染物的潜在源区。结果表明:影响北京的气团主要来自西南、偏东和西北三条路径,其中西南和偏东路径中重污染天气的出现概率分别为56.58%和43.80%,为典型的污染物传输路径。潜在源区分析发现,高PSCF值主要对应西南和偏东轨迹气团所影响的山东西部、河北中南部及天津等地,其形成与下垫面排放及气团移动速度有关。在此基础上,结合PM_(2.5)排放源强度构建传输气象指数,经检验发现与PM_(2.5)浓度的生消变化有较好的一致性,且有约6 h的预报提前量。将传输指数与天气分析相结合,有助于加深对重污染天气成因的理解,并在预报评估中发挥参考作用。     

卡斯特“网络社会理论”对于人文地理学的知识贡献

以引用曼纽尔·卡斯特《网络社会的崛起》的898篇英文文献和363篇中文文献为数据基础,综合运用引文内容分析和引文情境分析方法,基于中外引文的分析与对比,研究了“网络社会理论”对于人文地理学的知识贡献。研究发现：“流动空间”是国内外文献引用最多的理论观点,且国内研究的引用比例明显高于国外研究;国内外研究对于“网络社会理论”的关注点存在差异,国内研究主要聚焦于网络社会的外在空间形态及其的转型,而国外研究则更加关注网络社会的内在空间动力;引文内容承担着9种引用功能以及3类知识贡献,体现了“网络社会理论”对于人文地理学不同程度的影响。其中,批判性引用揭示了“网络社会理论”的不足之处,指出了“空间二元论”的抽象性、地方空间的重要性以及研究数据、方法和时代背景的局限性,为未来“网络社会理论”在人文地理学领域的应用与创新提供了新的启示。