Elevation-dependent changes in reference evapotranspiration due to climate change

The Food and Agriculture Organizations' (FAO) Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is a crucial index in the research of water and energy balance. Temporal and spatial variations in ET₀ from 1981–2017 were investigated in the Hengduan Mountains, China_. The results showed a change point around the year 2000 in ET₀ series. ET₀ decreased and increased significantly by +3.200 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 1981–2000 and by +4.109 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 2001–2017, respectively. The contribution analysis shows that the positive significant contribution of air temperature (TA) was offset by negative effects of decreases in downward shortwave radiation (R_s) and wind speed (WS) and an increase in actual vapour pressure (e_a), causing the decrease in ET₀ from 1981 to 2000. WS was the largest contributing factor for the decrease in ET₀ from 1981 to 2000 during spring, winter and annually, while R_s and e_a were the largest negative contributors in summer and autumn, respectively. An increase in TA was responsible for the increase in ET₀ in all seasons except winter and the annual scale in 2001–2017. The sensitivity analysis shows that ET₀ was most sensitive to TA, and WS was the least sensitive variable. The trends of ET₀ increased with elevation; we denote this as the elevation-dependence of ET₀ changes. The elevation-dependence was also noted for the trends of WS and e_a, with higher elevations showing larger changes in WS and lower changes in e_a. Besides, the sensitivities of TA, R_s and e_a decreased with elevation, while that of WS increased slightly with elevation. A comprehensive investigation into the trends of climatic drivers and their sensitivities revealed complex trends of the contributions of climatic variables on ET₀ with elevation, with no uniform trend existed in seasons. The results will contribute to our understanding of the response of ET₀ to climate change in a mountainous area, and provide a guideline for the water resources management under climate change.     

End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.     

技术关联、交通可达性与企业生产率——基于公路和铁路的研究

企业是区域经济发展的微观基础。企业生产率增长会影响区域长期经济发展,因此有必要深入分析企业生产率变动的影响因素和内在机制。基于中国工业企业年度调查数据（ASIF）,通过两阶段回归模型（2SLS）探讨企业与区域产业环境间的技术关联对企业生产率的影响,并分析不同交通类型的区域可达性的调节作用差异。结果显示：① 企业与区域间的技术关联越高,企业的全要素生产率会越高。② 区域可达性能够调节技术关联与企业生产率间的关系,且异质性交通网络的调节效应不同。在公路可达性高的区域内,企业生产率受到企业与区域间技术关联的影响较强;相反,提升区域铁路可达性则主要表现为削弱技术关联对企业生产率的作用。③ 区域可达性的调节效应还存在产业和空间异质性。比起劳动密集型企业,资本、技术密集型企业的生产率与技术关联间的关系受区域可达性的影响更明显。对于不同区域,公路可达性会使东部企业的生产率更依赖技术关联,而中西部企业刚好相反;铁路可达性则能促使东部企业发生“突破性”的生产率变化,对中西部企业没有明显影响。     

荒漠绿洲湿地水分来源及植物水分利用策略

水分是干旱区不同景观界面间的水分循环过程与水力联系的主体,维持着干旱区湿地生态系统的结构与功能。为量化水分来源及其对植物水分的贡献率,以河岸灌木湿地和草地盐沼湿地为研究对象,通过测定降水、径流、地下水、土壤水和植物水中δD、δ¹⁸O组成,利用多源线性混合模型分析水分来源对荒漠植物水分利用的贡献率。结果表明：（1） 黑河流域荒漠绿洲湿地年均降水量104.6 mm,约占蒸散量（604.47 mm）的17.03%,具有明显的季节性分布特征。地下水位与土壤含水量的波动取决于河流距离,离河道较近的河岸灌木湿地地下水深度及土壤含水量随季节波动较小,而离河道较远的草地盐沼湿地则变化很大。（2） 当地大气降水线δD=6.33δ¹⁸O+4.04 （R²=0.931）,斜率和截距均略小于全球大气降水线则符合黑河流域湿地整体降水少而蒸散量大的特点。黑河径流δD和δ¹⁸O均值分别为-43.80‰±12.09‰和-8.65‰±23.33‰,地下水为-50.98‰±13.18‰和-9.74‰±25.49‰,土壤水为 -42.07‰±6.89‰和-7.22‰±2.49‰,植物水为-51.84‰±14.46‰和-8.50‰±24.13‰。（3） 地表蒸发是荒漠绿洲湿地土壤氢、氧同位素富集的主要原因。地下水和河水分别是草地盐沼湿地与河岸灌木湿地的主要水分来源,贡献率分别约为61%和50%,表明湿地植物相比于干旱区脉冲式降水更依赖较为稳定的水源。（4） 植物根系深度和毛细根分布是决定荒漠绿洲湿地植物水分利用策略的重要因素。     

The Trophic Contributions of Rotifers in Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Habitats

Distribution patterns and trophic contributions of rotifers from freshwater through polyhaline estuarine waters were examined in the southern Chesapeake Bay and its major tributaries for a two-year period. Trichocerca marina and Synchaeta spp. were the major taxa in abundance, followed by Polyarthra vulgaris, Keratella cochlearis and Brachionus spp. There was a significant negative correlation between salinity and rotifer density, biomass, and number of species. Rotifers were a component of the microzooplankton biomass during specific periods and at particular sites, dominating summer assemblages in tidal freshwater and river–estuary transition sites, plus the winter communities in estuarine waters. This observation indicates that rotifers may play an important trophic role by seasonally replacing metazoan nauplii as a biomass source in both tidal freshwater and estuarine ecosystems. The annual contribution of rotifers to the total microzooplankton biomass exclusive of heterotrophic dinoflagellates was brief but intensive, achieving over 50% of annual biomass during a 2–3 month period. Despite the small annual mean contribution of rotifers to the total microzooplankton biomass, rotifers may have a limited, but significant impact on the trophic dynamics of the zooplankton community in Chesapeake Bay and its major tidal tributaries.     

基于PSCF与CWT方法的赣江新区大气污染物潜在源区个例分析

利用TrajStat软件和GDAS全球同化气象数据,对江西省赣江新区2011—2020年四季72 h气团后向轨迹进行聚类分析,并结合PM2.5和O3逐小时浓度数据,运用潜在源贡献因子分析法（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹分析法（CWT）分析了2016年12月2—10日一次污染天气过程中大气污染物输送对赣江新区上空污染物浓度的贡献。结果表明,赣江新区2011—2020年四季气团后向轨迹中占比最大的均为短支气流,其中春季的短支气流来源于东侧,其他季节均来源于东北方向的安徽省,夏季和冬季的长支气流与季风的季节性变化一致。在2016年12月2—10日的污染天气过程中,赣江新区的PM2.5潜在源区主要分布于江西省北部、湖北省东南部,O3潜在源区主要分布于江西省北部、湖北省南部和湖南省东北小部分地区;同时天气形势显示,赣江新区处在槽后脊前,湖北省东南部存在偏强西北风,为大气污染物向赣江新区的输送创造了条件。     

城市化对石家庄站近地面风速趋势的影响

利用1972—2012年石家庄城市站和4个乡村站地面风速资料,采用城乡对比方法,对石家庄城市站地面风速序列中的城市化影响进行分析,结果表明,石家庄站年和季节平均地面风速和平均10 min最大风速的长期下降趋势,主要是由城市化因素引起。具体结论如下：(1)石家庄站年和四季平均风速、平均10 min最大风速和大风日数均呈极显著的减少趋势,年平均减少速率分别为-0.15 (m/s)/10a、-1.05 (m/s)/10a和-2.90 d/10a;乡村站年平均风速呈微弱下降趋势,年平均10 min最大风速减少较为明显,年大风日数减少趋势非常显著,减少速率分别为-0.02 (m/s)/10a、-0.21 (m/s)/10a和-2.19 d/10a。(2)石家庄站年平均风速下降趋势中的城市化影响为-0.13 (m/s)/10a,城市化影响非常显著,城市化贡献率达到86.0%。该站春、夏、秋、冬季平均风速变化的城市化影响分别为-0.16 (m/s)/10a、-0.10 (m/s)/10a、-0.13 (m/s)/10a和-0.15 (m/s)/10a,城市化贡献率分别为82.8%、87.6%、88.6%和85.4%。(3)石家庄站年平均10 min最大风速变化趋势中的城市化影响为-0.84 (m/s)/10a,城市化贡献率为79.7%;春、夏、秋、冬季平均10 min最大风速变化趋势中的城市化影响分别为-0.94 (m/s)/10a、-0.80 (m/s)/10a、-0.60 (m/s)/10a和-1.01 (m/s)/10a,城市化贡献率分别达到90.4%、78.6%、64.9%和79.1%。(4)城市化对石家庄站年大风日数减少的影响不显著,但冬季大风日数减少仍明显与城市化过程有关。     

Assessment of parental contribution and effective population size from a 3×3 diallel cross of clam Meretrix meretrix

Unbalanced parental contribution and small effective population size(N e)are common issues during the artifi cial breeding of marine bivalves.The impact of hatchery-spawning practices on parental contribution,effective population size,the N e/N ratio,and genetic diversity are largely unknown.To address this,we conducted a parentage analysis on a complete 3×3 diallel cross of clam M eretrix meretrix using eight microsatellite markers.The genetic diversity of the parents was higher than that of their respective offspring in most crosses(8/9).Sires or dams from the same family contributed unequally to the pool of offspring from a particular cross,and the same parent clam exhibited large variation in parental contribution among different crosses.The variance in male contribution was higher than that of the female contribution in most crosses,suggesting that male contribution was more skewed than for females.The N e/N ratio for nine crosses ranged from 0.58 to 0.86.There was no linear relationship between the sex ratio and the N e/N ratio(P0.05).Moreover,a sex ratio closer to one-to-one does not necessarily mean a larger effective population size.A solution to small effective population size in commercial breeding programs is increasing broodstock numbers and attempting to maintain a balanced sex ratio.     

2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨过程的水汽输送特征

利用NCEP再分析资料,根据水汽收支方程计算2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨时期华北东北部暴雨区域的水汽收支情况并分析水汽输送特征。得到以下结论:经向水汽输送在此次暴雨过程中起主要作用,暴雨区内水汽主要来源于中、低层(500 hPa以下)的南边界。暴雨区内水汽的辐合与暴雨发生的时间和空间具有较好一致性,在低层水汽的辐合起主要作用,中高层水汽垂直输送作用更为显著。HYSPLIT后向轨迹模拟得到的结果显示根据水汽源地划分影响此次暴雨过程水汽输送路径主要有:从孟加拉湾、南海地区处于中低层直接北上的西南路径,以及中层以下从我国东部海域(黄海、东海为主)进入内陆之后北折向东北偏北方向运动的L形高湿路径;同时高层沿着西风带西北路径的干空气输送也对此次强降水有重要影响。三者中从东部海域到达暴雨区的水汽贡献率最大,而孟加拉湾、南海的水汽输送对于此次强降水起到了明显的增强作用。     

Attribution of Maize Yield Increase in China to Climate Change and Technological Advancement Between 1980 and 2010

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from-41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm^-2 yr^-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm^-2 yr^-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of-9.0 kg hm^-2 yr^-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.