预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Application of X-ray computed tomography for analyzing cleat spacing and cleat aperture in coal samples

New techniques to determine distributions of cleat aperture, cleat orientation and cleat spacing from CT scans have been developed. For cleat orientation and spacing distributions, two different coal blocks were scanned. The CT scans have been analyzed for the three orthogonal directions. Histograms of the cleat orientations are bimodal, expressing the typical cleat texture of face and butt cleats and bedding perpendicular relaxation fractures. Deviations up to 20° from the peak values in the cleat orientation distributions were used as input for automated image analysis of cleat spacing. Distributions of the cleat spacing measurements are related to the face and butt cleat directions. The term “relevant cleat length” is introduced as a measure to extract the amount of cleat length involved with the cleat spacing measurements. The ratio ranges from 0.03 to 0.38 and expresses the difference in cleat texture in both samples. Cleat spacing versus relevant cleat length shows sample specific patterns for face cleat, butt cleat and bedding. To describe cleat aperture quantitatively, peak height and missing attenuation have been used. The image of a cleat was seen as a convolution of a rectangular fracture profile with a Gaussian point spread function.     

Micro-spectroscopic investigations of highly heterogeneous waste repository materials

Assuring safe disposal and long-term storage of radioactive and toxic wastes corresponds to a primary environmental task of present societies. To improve any technical limitation, a mechanistic understanding of the processes governing the binding of heavy metals and radionuclides is required. In this study, the significance of synchrotron-based X-ray microprobes for elucidating the spatial distribution and the speciation of radionuclides in highly heterogeneous waste repository materials will be outlined. A case study on the uptake process of Co in cementitious engineered barrier materials exposed to microbial degradation will be presented.     

Statistical evaluation of methods for the calculation of static formation temperatures in geothermal and oil wells using an extension of the error propagation theory

The feasibility of using the more sophisticated weighted least-squares (WLS) model, as opposed to the traditional ordinary least-squares (OLS), in linear regressions of BHT data to estimate the static formation temperatures (SFT) was investigated. The most commonly used analytical methods (line-source; spherical and radial heat flow; and cylindrical heat source) were applied. Error propagation equations were derived to calculate errors in the time function of each method. These errors were combined with the BHT measurement errors to compute weighting factors for applying the WLS. Intercept uncertainties were estimated for all regressions using sets of synthetic and actual borehole logs taken from geothermal and oil applications. SFT computed with the spherical and radial heat flow method were generally greater than those from the other two methods.     

Stratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of a Quaternary sequence along the Dong Nai River, southern Vietnam

The pre-Holocene Cenozoic sequence outcrops in the terrestrial part of the eastern margin of the Mekong Basin. However, the stratigraphy of the sequence is still unclear. Its detailed stratigraphy and chronology were therefore studied along the Dong Nai River, southern Vietnam, and the lithofacies and the relations among the formations were investigated from the outcrops. The ages of the deposits were determined by using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating.The Ba Mieu Formation was deposited about 176±52 ka during marine isotope stage (MIS) 7–6. The Thu Duc Formation was deposited about 97±27 ka during MIS 5. Both the Ba Mieu and Thu Duc formations are composed of fluvial and tidally influenced coastal deposits. The newly proposed Nhon Trach Formation was originally an eolian (blanket) deposit, but it has been partly reworked by fluvial processes. The Nhon Trach Formation was deposited about 10.9±4.7 ka, in the last part of the Pleistocene to the beginning of the Holocene. The OSL ages for the Ba Mieu, Thu Duc, and Nhon Trach formations are younger than the ages previously assigned to these formations.     

The first record of dinosaurs in the Dalmatian part (Croatia) of the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform (ADCP)

The first discovery of dinosaur footprints on the Dalmatian part of the Adriatic-Dinaric carbonate platform (ADCP) is reported. They constitute the geologically youngest record of footprints on the ADCP. The trackbearing layer was formed in the intertidal environment and represents the final stage of a shallowing-upward cycle. Just below it, a heavy dinoturbated limestone layer can be observed. Microfacies analysis, incorporating evidence from benthic foraminifera and algae, indicates a Late Turonian–Early Coniacian age. The overall morphology and size of the footprints points to sauropod dinosaurs; they represent the largest forms recorded so far on the ADCP. This hints at a prolonged sauropod presence on the platform and to its Late Cretaceous connection to the continent rather than isolation.     

Geochemistry and Origin of Ananai Stratiform Manganese Deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, Central Shikoku, Japan

Abstract. Major and trace element contents are reported for Permian manganese ore and associated greenstone from the Ananai manganese deposit in the Northern Chichibu Belt, central Shikoku, Japan. The manganese deposit occurs between greenstone and red chert, or among red chert beds. Chemical compositions of manganese ore are characterized by enrichments in Mn, Ca, P, Co, Ni, Zn, Sr and Ba, and negative Ce and positive Eu anomalies relative to post-Archean average Australian Shale (PAAS). Geochemical features of the manganese ore are similar to those of modern submarine hydrother-mal manganese deposits from volcanic arc or hotspot setting. In addition, geochemical characteristics of the greenstone closely associated with the Ananai manganese deposit are analogous to those of with-in plate alkaline basalt (WPA). Consequently, the Ananai manganese deposit was most likely formed by hydrothermal activity related to hotspot volcanism in the Panthalassa Ocean during the Middle Permian. This is the first report documenting the terrestrially-exposed manganese deposit that was a submarine precipitate at hotspot.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Flocculation improves uptake of Sr and Cs from radioactive effluents

This paper presents the results of investigation on uptake of radioactive species ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs present in the liquid effluents from nuclear processing plants. Chemical precipitation process is adopted to remove radioactivity from the effluents with low and intermediate level of activity. In this process, radioactive ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs are co-precipitated along with copper ferrocyanide, ferric hydroxide and either calcium phosphate or barium sulphate. These precipitates being fine in size require flocculation for enhanced settling rate in clarifier/thickener. The flocculation by some selected high molecular weight polyacrylamide based polymers has improved the uptake of radioactive metal ions. The adsorption of these radioactive species has been found to increase in the presence of these flocculants thereby improving the decontamination factor (DF). While flocculating the precipitates, there may be some complex formation with Sr²⁺/Cs⁺, flocculant and the substrate. This has enhanced the uptake of the radioactive metal ions from the liquid component. The plant trials have indicated the improvement of DF value due to flocculation by cationic flocculant.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.