合肥市耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

收集1980～1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量、质量变化和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为，在2005，2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别为97％和95％，对粮食生产与其影响因素进行了灰色关联分析，提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径。     

SARS的世界性和中国旅游商品的可持续开发

SARS是一种世界性灾难题，医学专家提示，它将与人类长期共存。但2003年春天的SARS却对华人经济圈造成巨大冲击。在这种疫情的紧急状态和长期影响下，中国国民经济各行业中，旅游业所受冲击很大。人民的生命安全重于经济利益，但如何最大限度缩小损失是我们旅游研究者的责任。基于这种背景，结合我国旅游商品长期存在的问题，本文重点探讨了在SARS的紧急状态下，中国旅游商品如何实施可持续开发。作者认为，中国旅游商品开发应坚持走由被动型向主动型转变、计划型向市场型转变、模糊型向标准型转变、短期型向长期型转变的可持续发展之路。     

On the land use in Three Gorges Reservoir area

In this study the arable land changes in two counties (Zigui and Xingshan) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China are investigated. The statistical data from the officially published statistical books are used to study these changes in the two counties during the past 50 years since 1949. The changes of arable land, changes of arable land per capita, and changes of multiple crop index in Zigui and Xingshan counties are examined. Using an index method, we conclude that the two counties are critical in the sustainable utilization of arable land.     

Present land use and cover patterns and their development potential in North Ningxia

With the objectives to acquire the fundamental data of the territorial resource, understand the impacts of human activities on the land use and cover patterns and evaluate the potential of the future exploitation, an intensive land cover classification with an accuracy of 93% has been completed for North Ningxia by remote sensing technique based on the adoption of a combination method composed of texture training, maximum likelihood classification and post-processing such as re-allocation and aggregation. This classification result was incorporated with the contemporaneous socio-economic and meteorological data for cross-sectional regression modelling to reveal the spatial determinants of the land cover patterns and understand the human-environmental relationships. A tentative evaluation on the potential of soil exploitation in the near future was carried out in combination with our land use and cover change detection results aiming at supplying some useful references for the central and local governments in their sustainable land use planning.     

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

USING UPLAND FOREST IN SHIMENTAI NATURE RESERVE,CHINA*

ABSTRACT. The Shimentai Nature Reserve in Yingde County, Guangdong Province, China, established recently in a subtropical upland forest area, has served for ages as an essential and customary source of livelihood for local people. Assessment of forest usage indicates heavy reliance by villagers on its diversified biotic resources. This forest dependence, associated with socioeconomic factors such as distance from village, ethnic origin, out‐migration of rural youngsters, and a local tradition of conservation, is unlikely to decline in the near future. The reserve management recognizes the need to address the livelihood issues of local people and to win local support. A pragmatic adherence to provincial and higher‐level policies that exclude forest‐tapping activities could lead to more people‐versus‐park conflicts, which would dilute fundamental conservation objectives. A more enlightened and localized approach that nurtures a synergy between limited forest use and conservation while helping to develop new income sources could furnish workable alternatives.     

阜新矿区地面塌陷灾害对土地生产力的影响

在研究地面塌陷对一个地区的影响时，一般只侧重于其对建筑物、铁路的影响，而对土地生产力影响的探讨和研究还不够深入。对于阜新矿区来说，地面塌陷对该区土地生产力的影响更是空白，前期的工作仅仅侧重于地面塌陷的调查，如果就地面塌陷对土地生产力的影响做一决的概括和分析，无疑会给今后治理由地面塌陷带来的灾害提供借鉴作用。本文结合大量实测、实算数据，应用土地复理论与方法对地面塌陷引起的土地侵蚀、土壤盐碱化、土壤湿度、土壤质量水平等四个方面做了较为系统的阐述，并对灾害的治理提出了见解。     

台湾地面沉降现状与防治对策

台湾地面沉降始于20世纪50年代初期的台北地区。随着地下水开发利用的普及与养殖渔业和相关耗水产业的移入，西部沿海平原区地面沉降现象普遍，尤以彰化、云林、嘉义、屏东等地显著，总沉降面积达1165km^2。约占台湾平原区的1／100其中屏东地区1970—2001年的累积沉降量达3．20m，最大沉降速率曾超过40cm／a(1979-1981年)。目前彰化地区的沉降速率最大，2000—2001年达17．6cm/a。其它绝大部分地区沉降速率在5cm/a以下。台湾地面沉降的主要原因系开采地下水引起的。仅屏东地区就有4000余口深井，地下水年均开采量1．65亿m^3，最高达3．2亿m^3以上。该岛第四纪地层厚800—1000m，沉降主要发生在60-300m土层内。目前沉降发展态势可分为暂时稳定、渐趋稳定、显著沉降和潜在沉降4类。台湾目前采用一等水准测量、GPS及一孔多标感应分层监测技术进行地面沉降监测。在主要沉降区均设有多处GPS固定站实行自动化监测，一孔多标土层分层监测共有19组。采用数值模拟对地面沉降进行分析与预测。通过用水规划的制定、督导和实施地面沉降的控制与管理。1995—2000年实施第一期地面沉降防治执行方案，2001-2004年实施第二期，针对不同地区沉降发展的不同态势采取相应对策，已取得良好的社会成效。     

灰色系统在地面沉降分析中的应用

该文将灰色系统理论引入地面沉降的研究之中。根据上海地面沉降的历史数据建立了上海地面沉降发展的GM(1,1)模型以及地面沉降与地下水位变化的映射GM(1,2)模型,最后运用所建立的模型对地面沉降的发展态势进行了预测。     

上海现阶段主要沉降层及其变形特征分析

以上海地质条件为基础，根据最近十几年分层标和含水层水位观测资料分析了上海地面沉降的主要沉降层，分析结果表明目前上海的主要沉降层是第五砂层。从第五砂层水位与时间的关系、变形与时间的关系和水位与变形的关系出发，结合室内实验的结果，指出第五砂层的变形特征是地下水位在一定范围内反复上升-下降时，变形以弹性为主、一般情况下则以塑性变形为主、应力应变关系为非线性以及存在蠕变变形。在建立地面沉降模型时必须考虑含水砂层的这些变形特点。