黄土坡滑坡形成与变形的地质过程机制

巴东黄土坡滑坡是三峡库区重大滑坡之一, 规模大, 而且形成与变形地质过程机制复杂.是与三峡库区构造强烈隆升、河流急剧下切、斜坡重力卸荷等各种作用相伴生的地质过程的结果; 其中的Ⅰ号崩滑堆积体在回水条件下深层蠕动变形较明显, 受到多方面的关注.采用地质过程类比分析方法, 通过对滑坡形成、回水前变形破坏、回水条件下变形的地质过程机制分析, 预测了深层蠕动变形使其中部和前部产生较大变形的发展趋势, 目前发现Ⅰ号崩滑堆积体的深层蠕动变形问题, 主要是库水升降的动态过程与降雨效应耦合作用的结果.      

CHARACTERISTICS OF TURBULENCE SPECTRA IN DIFFERENT WEATHER PROCESSES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS

In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence parameters such asturbulence intensity,heat and momentum fluxes,friction velocity,M-O length and stability parameter are calculatedand their dependence on turbulence spectra in different stability conditions are analyzed.Some encouraging results areobtained and compared with others' results.     

高原降雨天气过程中总体输送系数的变化特征

以中日亚洲季风机制合作研究计划设在西藏的4个自动气象站（AWS）获得的近6年（1995年7月-1999年6月）观测连续、时次密集的近地层大气梯度观测资料为基础,选取了高原中、东部夏季雨季的一些典型降雨过程,应用廓线-通量法计算了这些站降雨过程中每隔20min一次的总体输送系数,分析了其随层结稳定度、地表粗糙度以及在降雨天气过程中的变化特征。结果表明：总体输送系数的变化与近地层大气层结稳定度、地表粗糙度具有确定的、密切的关系;总体输送系数对降雨天气过程有明显的响应,但在与降雨过程的雨量峰值、降雨时段的对应上,各站的规律性略有不同。     

Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model

The upper limit of climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes on seasonal to interannual time scales is investigated by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The ensembles consist of six members and are initialized in January and July from different years of the model’s 300-year control integration. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric climate parameters. The predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small except for southeastern Europe, parts of North America and the North Pacific, where significant predictability occurs with a lead time of up to half a year. The predictability of 2 m air temperature shows a large land–sea contrast with highest predictabilities over the sub polar North Atlantic and North Pacific. A combination of relatively high persistence and advection of sea surface temperature anomalies into these areas leads to large predictability. Air temperature over Europe, parts of North America and Asia shows significant predictability of up to half a year in advance. Over the ice-covered Arctic, air temperature is not predictable at time scales exceeding 2 months. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable in the central Arctic mainly due to persistence and in the Labrador Sea due to dynamics. Surface salinity is highly predictable in the Arctic Ocean, northern North Atlantic and North Pacific for several years in advance. We compare the results to the predictability due to persistence and show the importance of dynamical processes for the predictability.     

HUBEX强化观测期雷达测雨在水文过程模拟中的应用

选择全球能量与水循环亚洲季风试验区的淮河黄泥庄水站控制的史河流域(805km^2)为研究区域，基于数字高程模型，生成栅格水流流向，构建数字流域及空间拓扑关系；然后，将阜阳雷达观测数据经过订正校准后作为研究区内每一栅格单元上的雨量输入，并在每一栅格上应用新安江模型构建产流模型；再根据每一栅格至流域出口断面一黄泥庄水站的距离，运用Muskingum方法进行汇流演算，从而获得黄泥庄站的流量过程。计算结果显示，从1998年5月31日。8月3日的强化观测期内模型确定性系数为92．41％，其间4场洪水的确定性系数分别为85．64％、86．62％、92．57％和83．91％，高于应用地面雨量计观测的数据计算的结果。这说明雷达测雨数据具有较高的时空分辨率，当它应用于水过程模拟时优于地面雨量计资料，基于栅格的水模型为充分利用雷达数据提供了良好平台。     

Impact of Cloud Microphysical Processes on the Simulation of Typhoon Rananim near Shore.Part Ⅱ:Typhoon Intensity and Track

The impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulated intensity and track of Typhoon Rananim is discussed and analyzed in the second part of this study.The results indicate that when the cooling effect due to evaporation of rain water is excluded,the simulated 36-h maximum surface wind speed of Typhoon Rananim is about 7 m s-1 greater than that from all other experiments; however,the typhoon landfall location has the biggest bias of about 150 km against the control experiment.The simulated strong outer rainbands and the vertical shear of the environmental flow are unfavorable for the deepening and maintenance of the typhoon and result in its intensity loss near the landfall.It is the cloud microphysical processes that strengthen and create the outer spiral rainbands,which then increase the local convergence away from the typhoon center and prevent more moisture and energy transport to the inner core of the typhoon.The developed outer rainbands are supposed to bring dry and cold air mass from the middle troposphere to the planetary boundary layer (PBL).The other branch of the cold airflow comes from the evaporation of rain water itself in the PBL while the droplets are falling.Thus,the cut-off of the warm and moist air to the inner core and the invasion of cold and dry air to the eyewall region are expected to bring about the intensity reduction of the modeled typhoon.Therefore,the deepening and maintenance of Typhoon Rananim during its landing are better simulated through the reduction of these two kinds of model errors.     

Impacts of land surface on climate of july and onset of summer monsoon: a study with an agcm plus ssib

To get more insight into the impacts of land surface processes on climate, a simplified biosphere model (SSiB) developed by Sellers and Xue et al. is implemented into the LASG / IAP spectral climate AGCM (R15L9). The new model has been integrated for more than twenty years. The diagnoses of the integration show that the implementing of the land surface processes has greatly improved the simulation of July climate. It is also shown that the seasonal variations of land surface characteristics have great impacts on the onset of summer monsoon, especially the seasonal march of wind at 850 hPa and precipitation over the regions of summer monsoon.     

Desertification status mapping in Muttuma Watershed by using Random Forest Model

Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales, Australia. Desertification vulnerability index was developed using climate, terrain, vegetation, soil and land quality indices to identify environmentally sensitive areas for desertification. Random Forest Model(RFM) was used to predict the different desertification processes such as soil erosion, salinization and waterloggin...     

长生命史飑线在强、弱对流降水过程中的异同点分析

利用常规气象资料、自动站资料、NCEP再分析资料和多普勒雷达资料,对发生在我国中纬度地区不同对流环境下两次长生命史飑线过程的物理机制和中尺度特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)飑线在近地面层有较强的水汽辐合,但强对流降水过程中的飑线湿层深厚,水汽辐合的层次更为深广、强度更强,存在较低的抬升凝结高度。(2)高层强冷平流与低层暖平流的叠加是飑线的共同特征之一;不同之处在于弱对流降水过程中飑线不稳定层结的建立更多地依靠高层冷平流的作用,有更高的温度直减率,具有弱降水超级单体的一些特征;强对流降水过程中飑线低层暖平流的加强也是造成大气不稳定的重要原因,θse在中层呈现出湿中性层结特征,存在更大的热力不稳定度,是典型的强降水超级单体特性。(3)长生命史飑线的发展离不开强环境风垂直风切变;强对流降水过程中垂直风切变主要是风速随高度变化而产生的,弱对流降水过程中垂直风切变主要表现为风向随高度的变化。(4)飑线沿着出流边界和引导气流方向移动。(5)飑线在雷达回波上的共同点:都出现典型弓形回波,减弱的标志亦是阵风锋逐渐远离回波主体,弓形回波逐渐断裂,强回波后侧的层状云回波面积开始增大;不同点在于弓形回波的演变方式不同,弱对流降水过程中的弓形回波有超级单体风暴的典型结构,而强对流降水过程中弓形回波的形成是由强降水超级单体的发展而来,单体结构明显不同于经典超级单体中非降水或弱降水超级单体。(6)速度场上低层存在着径向速度的大值区,中低层有辐合,并伴有中气旋存在,中层存在明显的MARC(Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence)。1km高度以下的径向速度大值区、MARC和中气旋对地面灾害性大风有提前预警作用。     

内蒙古哈达门沟金矿构造演化及成矿控矿构造特征

哈达门沟金矿是内蒙古迄今最大的金矿床,具有超大型金矿床规模。金的成矿作用对岩性没有明确的选择性,而主要是受褶皱断裂构造的控制。成矿流体主要来自深源,在有利的构造扩容带中聚积成矿。研究表明,该区的构造变形从早到晚,力学性质往往从塑性到脆性,构造规模从小到大,构造类型则是褶皱与剪切带同时形成,或相间发育。该区主要经历了4个期次的强烈褶皱剪切作用,并形成了主要的成矿控矿构造。第一期构造变形时岩石的流变性较强,褶皱幅度较小,一般多表现为小规模的塑性流变褶皱,并产生了小规模韧性剪切带;第二期(主期)褶皱以乌拉山主峰为主的东西向区域规模的复式背、向斜(形),并在主期褶皱的倒转翼发育了一系列与褶皱同向延伸的脆韧性剪切带,它们构成了区域性构造薄弱带;第三期为横跨叠加褶皱,使近东西向褶皱发生了南北向蛇形弯曲,伴随该期褶皱作用形成了低绿片岩相韧脆性剪切带,为深源成矿流体的贯入与集聚成矿提供了很好的赋存空间,是主要的成矿控矿构造;第四期构造变形则以区域性隆升作用为主,使早期褶皱发生横弯褶皱的同时,还将深部形成的金矿体抬升至浅部。文中在成矿控矿构造研究的基础上,探讨了矿床成矿规律,提出了找矿远景。