降水效果的数值分析和设计优化研究

降水在各类工程中使用的越来越多,已形成了一套设计和施工方法,但其降水效果分析却少有人研究。针对某露天煤矿开挖中的降水疏干工程,开展了大规模的数值模拟研究。在掌握水文地质条件的基础上,通过Modflow建立了较合理的数值模型,对不同工况的降水效果进行了详细的分析,实际计算表明,加井时间、调整单井抽水量、井的数目、井的排列以及它们的相互作用对降水效果有很大影响。分批次、分时段、优化井排列和调整单井抽水量是提高降水效果的设计措施和优化设计的重要影响因素,这些因素的作用规律将为降水设计和施工以及实际工程效果提供重要理论依据。     

长沙某高边坡支护设计优化

结合长沙某高边坡支护工程实例，详细研究边坡岩土条件及环境条件，充分挖掘岩土参数潜力：≯耋翌睾；方綦建藉蓑术、经济对比分析，优选锚杆网格梁法进行边坡加固支护。实践表明，锚杆网格梁法是一种加固高边坡性价比很好的方法。     

重庆多历时极值降水的概率型优选及应用

基于重庆34个国家气象站1981—2016年5 min,24 h至3 d的过程最大雨量共18个年极值降水序列,利用线性矩法计算6种常用概率分布函数的模型参数,通过备选最优模型筛选法客观选取各站各历时极值降水的最优概率模型,并将优选结果应用于重庆不同历时百年重现期降水的计算。结果表明:模型优选方法得到的重庆各站不同历时极值降水的最优线型略有差异,广义极值分布占比最大,三参数Weibull分布次之,三参数对数正态分布第三,皮尔逊Ⅲ型和Gumbel分布相当,指数分布最差。最优线型计算的重庆不同历时百年重现期降水的空间分布大值区由短历时的点状分布向长历时的片状分布转变,渝东北的大值中心受地形影响不断向北移动。基于线性矩法的概率模型参数估计及客观的线型优选过程具有较强的可操作性和适应性,可应用于其他工程气象参数的推算中。     

阻塞结构对近海台风异常路径影响的数值试验

采用数值试验方法，研究了近海台风移动路径对环境动力因子的敏感性特征。数值模拟结果表明，台风北侧阻塞高压结构的变化，对近海台风路径异常现象的发生有显著影响。     

Operational Evaluation of the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by a CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar System

In this paper, the quantitative precipitation estimation based on hydrometeor classification (HCA-QPE) algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar promoted by the CINRAD/SA radar of China. The HCA-QPE algorithm, the localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall (CSU-HIDRO) and Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE) algorithms, and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE (DRVC-QPE) algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30, 2017 in the Guangdong Province. The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction, its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5mm h^(-1); and the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater the QPE improvement. And the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms. This study preliminarily verified the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.     

A New Strategy for Solving a Class of Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems Related to Weather and Climate Predictability

There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.     

基于多属性决策的区域大气复合污染多目标优化控制方法研究

大气复合污染是我国目前面临的主要大气环境问题。科学减排对大气复合污染形成起主要作用的一次污染物和二次污染的前体物,是治理大气复合污染的有效手段。本文提出了一种新的区域大气复合污染多目标优化模型,并结合多目标进化算法和基于决策者偏好的多属性决策技术,寻找治理大气污染的最优控制策略。与传统的单目标优化控制技术相比,本文提出的方法在保证环境达标的前提下,同时兼顾治理成本和行业可持续性发展这两种在一定程度上互斥的目标,并融入了决策者从当地实际情况出发对目标重要性的权衡,更加符合管理实践的需求,可为科学治理区域大气复合污染提供借鉴。     

热带测雨卫星对淮河一次暴雨降水结构与闪电活动的研究

文中利用热带测雨卫星 (TRMM )搭载的测雨雷达 (PR)、闪电成像仪 (LIS)、GOES卫星红外通道辐射亮温(TBB)对 2 0 0 3年淮河汛期一锋面气旋系统的两个时次的探测结果 ,分析研究了降水结构及闪电活动 ,并与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水的结构和闪电活动进行了比较。GOES的TBB、降水系统中的对流降水与层云降水比例、闪电活动频数随时间的变化均能表征锋面气旋系统的发展。TRMMPR探测结果表明 :冷锋降水狭窄细长 ,且均为强对流降水 (特别在冷锋加强时 ) ;暖锋宽广 ,且为大片层云降水 ,但其中存在面积不等的强对流降水云团 ;与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水垂直结构的比较表明 ,锋面气旋降水的最大降水率出现在近地面 ,而中尺度强降水的最大降水率出现在低空 (3.0～ 3.5km) ,表明两者之间的降水微物理过程存在差别。TRMMLIS探测结果表明 :闪电活动均发生在冷锋的强对流降水云团中 ,暖锋中虽有强对流降水 ,但无闪电活动 ;闪电活动频数高所对应的降水廓线中、上部存在大量的冰相粒子。     

Extraction of Lithium from Salt Lake Brine using N523-TBP Mixture System

In this work,problems encountered by tri-butyl phosphate( TBP) in the industrialization of lithium extraction from salt lake brine were discussed in detail. The behavior of N,N-bi-( 2-ethylhexyl) acetamide( N523) during lithium extraction was investigated,and its disadvantages were analyzed in the view of practical application. An N523-TBP mixture extraction system was proposed to alleviate or avoid the defects that N523 and TBP met when they were used separately. The optimal composition of this mixture extraction system was determined to be 20% N523-30% TBP-50% kerosene.The effects of brine acidity,Fe/Li molarity ratio,phase ratio and chloride ion concentration on lithium extraction efficiency were discussed. The operation conditions in single-stage extraction were optimized as brine acidity = 0. 05 mol/L,Fe/Li molarity ratio = 1. 3,and phase ratio = 2. The high concentration of chloride ions in brine was beneficial for the extraction of lithium. The structure of the extracted complex was proposed as( LiFeCl_4·n N523·m TBP)·( 2-n) N523·( 2-m) TBP( m + n = 2) by chemical analysis and slope-fitting methods. The extraction thermodynamic functions were calculated preliminarily,and the results suggested that the extraction process was an exothermic( ΔH 0) and spontaneous( ΔG 0) reaction,and the degree of disorder increased( ΔS 0) during the extraction process. This work will give some guidance to the lithium industry of Qinghai in both the fundamental theory and practical application.     

新疆霾天气监测的优化对策研究

针对新疆气象局普查全疆105个国家级气象站1951—2008年人工观测的霾天气历史记录时,发现新疆霾天气人工观测历史资料的统计数据出现明显不符合实际情况的异常现象,为探究出现这些异常现象的根本原因,研究人员分别采用历史资料统计法、问卷调查法、归纳分析法等多种方法,面向全疆观测员、预报员、业务管理人员等收集其对霾天气监测现状的看法和建议,进而归纳和总结出新疆霾天气监测业务中存在的主要问题,并针对存在的问题提出新疆霾天气监测的优化对策与措施,这些优化对策与措施已经应用于新疆气象观测站的日常霾天气业务中,且取得了一定的成效。