全球纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式分析

本文从能量平衡角度,考虑海气相互作用和纬向间的差异,设计了一个纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式,进行了模式平衡态求解、敏感性试验以及随机分析。并对模式部分计算结果进行了与实测资料的比较,验证了模式的合理性和可信性。     

Water balance modelling in lateritic terrain

An analytical approximate model for unsaturated flow in a spatially variable field, coupled with infiltration and evapotranspiration at the upper boundary and a fluctuating water-table at the lower boundary, has been developed. The unsaturated flow equations depend on parameterizations of θ(Φ) and K(Φ). They are based on the notion of a moving, discontinuous front. The field heterogeneity refers to saturated hydraulic conductivity only. Horizontal variability is considered, and the flow medium is approximated as a set of uncorrelated, vertically homogeneous columns. Expectations and variances obtained with this approach have been compared with observations of the field hydrological processes. Three important aspects of the hydrology in this lateritic terrain are rapid water-table response, Hortonian surface runoff generation and soil suction variability. The stochastic conceptualization used explains to a high degree these characteristics, although some limitations are demonstrated.     

Efficient stochastic analysis of unsaturated slopes subjected to various rainfall intensities and patterns

Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world. This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rainfall-induced slope failure probability. An unsaturated slope under rainfall infiltration in spatially varying soils is selected in this study to investigate the influences of the spatial variability of soil properties (including effective cohesion c′, effective friction angle φ′ and saturated hydraulic conductivity k_s), as well as rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern on the slope failure probability. Results show that the proposed framework in this study is capable of computing the failure probability with accuracy and high efficiency. The spatial variability of k_s cannot be overlooked in the reliability analysis. Otherwise, the rainfall-induced slope failure probability will be underestimated. It is found that the rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern have significant effect on the probability of failure. Moreover, the failure probabilities under various rainfall intensities and patterns can be easily obtained with the aid of the proposed framework, which can provide timely guidance for the landslide emergency management departments.     

随机Petri网在地震应急协同能力定量评价与动态分析中的应用

地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。     

Inverse modeling of lichen growth curves and implications for lichenometric dating

Lichenometric dating represents a quick and affordable surface exposure dating method that has been widely used to provide a minimum age constraint on tectonic and geomorphic landscape changes as well as buildings and anthropogenic landscape changes in various settings during the late Holocene. Despite its widespread usage, this method has several limitations. Major problems relate to the sampling of lichen population on any given rock surface and the modeling of growth curves. In order to overcome these issues, it has been suggested to subdivide the rock surface into some areas and measure the largest lichen thallus on each one. However, how to express the data in terms of a probability distribution function and link it to an age of last exposure of the rock surface are still a matter of debate. Here, we propose a novel approach to the modeling of lichen growth curves by treating lichen growth as a continuous-time Markov process with a time-varying rate and additive Brownian noise. Given the growth rates, the probability distribution of the lichen population at any time can then be obtained by solving the Fokker–Planck equation. This method is illustrated using a dataset from the Huashan area of eastern China, which consists of measurements of the largest thalli on 12 rock surfaces of known age. We first build up the probability distribution of the lichen population for each rock surface based on extreme value theory and then use these to optimize the growth curve by minimizing the Jensen–Shannon divergence. A new method is also proposed to use the growth curve to map a sample of size data from an undated rock surface to the calendar age domain so as to yield a fully probabilistic estimate of the exposure age of the undated rock surface rather than a point estimate.     

Seismic ground motion relationship in southern China based on stochastic finite-fault model

The characteristics of seismic ground motions in southern China are difficult to determine statistically due to a lack of strong ground motion data. In this study, a stochastic finite-fault ground motion model was adopted to simulate the seismic ground motions at bedrock for southern China, based on parameters derived from small and medium earthquakes that have occurred in the region. From these, the response spectra was estimated. A set of ground motion attenuation relations hipswas then developed based on simulated peak ground motions and response spectral parameters through regression, which would be applicable for use in engineering practice. Through comparisons, it was demonstrated that the proposed ground motion relationships are generally consistent with those obtained from other reported ground motion attenuation models for southern China.     

Eulerian spatial moments for solute transport in three-dimensional heterogeneous,dual-permeability media

A Eulerian analytical method is developed for nonreactive solute transport in heterogeneous, dual-permeability media where the hydraulic conductivities in fracture and matrix domains are both assumed to be stochastic processes. The analytical solution for the mean concentration is given explicitly in Fourier and Laplace transforms. Instead of using the fast fourier transform method to numerically invert the solution to real space (Hu et al., 2002), we apply the general relationship between spatial moments and concentration (Naff, 1990; Hu et al., 1997) to obtain the analytical solutions for the spatial moments up to the second for a pulse input of the solute. Owing to its accuracy and efficiency, the analytical method can be used to check the semi-analytical and Monte Carlo numerical methods before they are applied to more complicated studies. The analytical method can be also used during screening studies to identify the most significant transport parameters for further analysis. In this study, the analytical results have been compared with those obtained from the semi-analytical method (Hu et al., 2002) and the comparison shows that the semi-analytical method is robust. It is clearly shown from the analytical solution that the three factors, local dispersion, conductivity variation in each domain and velocity convection flow difference in the two domains, play different roles on the solute plume spreading in longitudinal and transverse directions. The calculation results also indicate that when the log-conductivity variance in matrix is 10 times less than its counterpart in fractures, it will hardly influence the solute transport, whether the conductivity field is matrix is treated as a homogeneous or random field.     

The effect of random recharge on uniform steady free-surface flow in heterogeneous porous formations

The effect of parametric uncertainty in recharge rate and spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity upon free-surface flow is investigated in a stochastic framework. We examine the three-dimensional free-surface gravitational flow problem for sloped mean uniform flow in a randomly heterogeneous porous medium under the influence of random recharge. We develop analytic solutions for the variance of free-surface position, head, and specific discharge on the free surface. Additionally, we obtain semi-analytic solutions for the statistical moments of head and specific discharge beneath the free-surface. Statistical moments are derived using a first-order approximation and then compared with their parallel in an unbounded medium. The effect of recharge mean and variability on the statistical moments is analyzed. Results can be applied to more complex flows, slowly varying in the mean.     

未来极端降水对气候平均变暖敏感性的蒙特卡罗模拟试验

利用Weibull分布拟合逐日降水的原始分布模式,并基于统计降尺度和蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法,对中国东部区域各站逐日极端降水量在未来气候变暖条件下的响应特征进行统计数值试验.结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,区域平均温度的改变即可导致区域极端降水概率分布特征的变动.从两个典型代表区域的预估结果中可见,长江中下游南部平均降水量对平均温度升高有正响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率分布曲线有明显的向右平移,导致大量级的极端降水的再现期缩短即概率增大.山东及渤海湾区域平均降水量对平均温度升高有负响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率密度分布尺度参数变小更明显,即方差增大,表现为左右两侧概率密度增加,同样导致大量级的极端降水再现期缩短即概率增大.本文仅考察了气候均值改变条件下,未来区域气候极端值的概率预估的可行性方案.对于未来气候方差的变化并未作试验,但理论上已经证明,未来气候极端值的概率对于气候方差变化的敏感性可能更大.由于目前尚未整卵出考察方差变化的较为完整的实际观测资料,该问题还有待进一步深入研究.     

数字化地图印刷一种随机挂网计算模型

基于彩色图像像素3刺激值与相应网点面积率之间的α幂修正的Neugebauer方程,建立由常规的调幅网为基础的调频挂网计算模型,以此实现分色胶片随机挂网