DOES WIND STRESS DEPEND ON SEA-STATE OR NOT? – A STATISTICAL ERROR ANALYSIS OF HEXMAX DATA

There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up.     

浅谈雅江县城南各种地质灾害的关系

对雅江县城南地质灾害的产生原因作了查明，为下一步综合整治提供依据。     

茅台酒酿酒高梁的地质环境研究

茅台酒对酿酒高梁有严格要求，适于茅台酒传统酿造工艺的高梁只产于仁怀县的某些地区，主要是受地质环境的控制。仁怀高梁对某些常量和微量元素有着鲜明的选择性，对磷和钼表现出强烈的吸收作用。岩－土剖面元素的迁聚，对磷和铝的供应是确定仁怀高梁品质和产量的关键。侏罗系砂泥岩、二叠系煤系地层的岩－土剖面，元素淋溶微弱，总量丰富，有效态含量高，组合良好，能正常进行岩－土－高梁系统的物质转化与元素迁移，能充分供应高梁生长所需的磷和钼等元素，是茅台酒酿酒高梁的最宜种植区。     

A physical statistical approach to erosion

Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated.     

地质雷达及其在环境地质中的应用

本文结合近几年联邦德国在环境地质方面的研究工作对地质雷达在环境工程领域中的应用范围及其局限性作了简要总结,文中并介绍了地质雷达技术的方法原理及存在问题。     

Radon,Lung Cancer Risk and Environmental Geology in Gejiu Area

The incidence of lung cancer in the Gejiu area of Yunnan Province ranks the first in the world.The radon level(indoor,soil) was measured in the Gejiu area by the SSNTD method from 1990 to 1996,The result indicates an extensive high-level of indoor radon in that area though U and Th are lower in local limestones,The indoor radon level of houses located in the geologic fault zone is 6 times high that 2km far from the fault zone.The reason probably is that the radon level of soil in the fault is 6-8 times high that 1 km far from the faults.our data indicate that a lower range of radon levels,0-100Bq.m^-3,exists in healthy families.However,a higher radon level,over 800 Bq.m^-3,is often found corresponding to that of cancer patients‘ homes(the house-owners are suffering from either lung cancer or leukaemia or liver cancer),Obviously,an increase in lung cancer incidence follows an increase in indoor radon level,The risk of cancer induced by indoor radon is no longer an inference,but a fact.     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events: a robust approach

In Smith (1986, J. Hydrol. 86, 27–43), a family of statistical distributions and estimators for extreme values based on a fixed number r > = 1 of the largest annual events are presented. The method of estimation was numerical maximum likelihood. In this paper, we consider the robust estimation of parameters in such families of distributions. The estimation technique, which is based on optimal B-robust estimates, will assign weights to each observation and give estimates of the parameters based on the data which are well modeled by the distribution. Thus, observations which are not consistent with the proposed distribution can be identified and the validity of the model can be assessed. The method is illustrated on Venice sea level data.     

普通克里格法在矿产储量计算中的应用

普通克里格法能充分利用样品信息，有效地提高块段平均品位及矿产储量精度。以刁泉银铜矿为实例，介绍了该方法的理论和方法应用以及储量计算流程图。     

测井技术在灰岩地区隧道深孔勘探中的应用

鄂西地区完整灰岩地层的视电阻率、密度、声波、自然伽马等曲线形态受灰岩胶结物质成份和泥质含量影响并具有一定的规律性，当灰岩地层受到构造、溶蚀作用产生破碎带、岩溶、裂隙等不良地质体或存在地下含水体时，各测井物理参数发生变化并在曲线形态上呈现异常反映，据此可以对不良地质体的位置、规模、类型进行准确判断。测井技术在鄂西地区灰岩地区隧道深孔勘探中的应用，补充、验证了钻探资料，为隧道设计、施工提供了可靠的依据。