Traveltime measurements from noise correlation: stability and detection of instrumental time-shifts

We test the feasibility of using Green's functions extracted from records of ambient seismic noise to monitor temporal changes in the Earth crust properties by repeated measurements at regional distances. We use about 11 yr of continuous recordings to extract surface waves between three pairs of stations in California. The correlations are computed in a moving 1-month window and we analyse the temporal evolution of measured interstation traveltimes. The comparison of the arrival times in the positive and negative correlation time of Rayleigh and Love waves allows us to separate time-shifts associated with any form of physical change in the medium, those resulting from clock drift or other instrumental errors, and those due to change in the localization of the noise sources. This separation is based on the principle of time symmetry. When possible, we perform our analysis in two different period bands: 5–10 and 10–20 s. The results indicate that significant instrumental time errors (0.5 s) are present in the data. These time-shifts can be measured and tested by closure relation and finally corrected independently of any velocity model. The traveltime series show a periodic oscillation that we interpret as the signature of the seasonal variation of the region of origin of the seismic noise. Between 1999 and 2005, the final arrival time fluctuations have a variance of the order of 0.01 s. This allows us to measure interstation traveltimes with errors smaller than 0.3 per cent of the interstation traveltime and smaller than 1 per cent of the used wave period. This level of accuracy was not sufficient to detect clear physical variation of crustal velocity during the considered 11 yr between the three stations in California. Such changes may be more easily detectable when considering pairs of stations more closely located to each other and in the vicinity of tectonically active faults or volcanoes.     

High-resolution structures of the Landers fault zone inferred from aftershock waveform data

High-frequency body waves recorded by a temporary seismic array across the surface rupture trace of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake were used to determine fault-zone structures down to the seismogenic depth. We first developed a technique to use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic seismograms for arbitrarily oriented tabular low-velocity fault-zone models. We then generated synthetic waveform record sections of a linear array across a vertical fault zone. They show that both arrival times and waveforms of P and S waves vary systematically across the fault due to transmissions and reflections from boundaries of the low-velocity fault zone. The waveform characteristics and arrival-time patterns in the record sections allow us to locate the boundaries of the fault zone and to determine its P - and S -wave velocities independently as well as its depth extent. Therefore, the trade-off between the fault-zone width and velocities can be avoided. Applying the method to the Landers waveform data reveals a low-velocity zone with a width of 270–360 m and a 35–60 per cent reduction in P and S velocities relative to the host rock. The analysis suggests that the low-velocity zone extends to a depth of ∼7 km. The western boundary of the low-velocity zone coincides with the observed main surface rupture trace.     

Large to intermediate-scale aquifer heterogeneity in fine-grain dominated alluvial fans (Cenozoic As Pontes Basin,northwestern Spain): insight based on three-dimensional geostatistical reconstruction

Facies reconstructions are used in hydrogeology to improve the interpretation of aquifer permeability distribution. In the absence of sufficient data to define the heterogeneity due to geological processes, uncertainties in the distribution of aquifer hydrofacies and characteristics may appear. Geometric and geostatistical methods are used to understand and model aquifer hydrofacies distribution, providing models to improve comprehension and development of aquifers. However, these models require some input statistical parameters that can be difficult to infer from the study site. A three-dimensional reconstruction of a kilometer scale fine-grain dominated Cenozoic alluvial fan derived from more than 200 continuously cored, closely spaced, and regularly distributed wells is presented. The facies distributions were reconstructed using a genetic stratigraphic subdivision and a deterministic geostatistical algorithm. The reconstruction is only slightly affected by variations in the geostatistical input parameters because of the high-density data set. Analysis of the reconstruction allowed identification in the proximal to medial alluvial fan zones of several laterally extensive sand bodies with relatively higher permeability; these sand bodies were quantified in terms of volume, mean thickness, maximum area, and maximum equivalent diameter. These quantifications provide trends and geological scenarios for input statistical parameters to model aquifer systems in similar alluvial fan depositional settings.     

Whole mantle SH velocity model constrained by waveform inversion based on three-dimensional Born kernels

A whole mantle SH velocity model is obtained by using a unique data set and techniques. Body and surface waveforms including major and multi-orbit phases are used as a data set and are inverted by using 3-D Born kernels. The resultant model, SH18CE, reveals the different natures of the two major upwelling systems: the strong low velocity anomalies beneath Africa extend for more than 1000 km from the core–mantle boundary (CMB), whereas those beneath the Pacific are restricted to 300–400 km from the CMB. The results also show the variable natures of stagnant slabs on the 670 discontinuity around Japan: the depths of the strongest high velocity anomalies within the stagnant slabs are different region by region, which is consistent with the detailed delay time tomography model in this area.     

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

兰州市空气质量预报系统结构及效果检验

文中从潜势预报、浓度预报、统计预报和数值预报 4方面介绍了兰州市空气质量预报业务系统的研究方法和结构特点。对 2 0 0 1年 4～ 10月兰州市空气质量预报与日报 (实况 )进行了分析研究 ,结果表明 ,该系统对兰州市空气质量预报有较强的预报能力 ,适用于兰州市空气质量预报业务。     

中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。