应用K指数和TOT指数作江苏中期降水预报的试验

用国家气象中心的T63和T106中期数值预报产品，计算所划定区域的K指数和TOT指数作为预报因子，并统计与江苏省9个代表站降水的相关。用逐步回归方法建立了江苏省4－7月第4－6天的PP降水预报方程36个、MOS降水预报方程108个，多级判别临界值144组。在此基础上经统计制作江苏省降水概率预报。     

2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验

随着精细化降水预报的要求和发展,模式对站点定量降水预报已成为天气预报业务的主要参考依据之一。本文对乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统DOGRAFS v1.0在2016年夏季全疆105个站点的24h累积降水量的预报性能进行统计检验。结果表明：(1)除山区外,全疆晴天预报准确率达到85%以上,其中南疆盆地、吐鄯托盆地晴天预报准确率达到95%以上。(2)对于小雨出现较多的站点,预报准确率达到55%以上、部分站点达到70%,同时上述区域存在15%左右的报强率;对于降水较少的南疆盆地和吐鄯托盆地整体以漏报为主,漏报率在80%以上。(3)北疆大部分地区和南疆西部山区的中雨预报准确率整体在30%左右;中雨日数较多的中天山及其两侧预报准确率约60%,该区域也存在20%左右的报强率;其他地区预报降水较实况以偏弱为主。(4)大雨及以上量级降水,模式预报整体表现为偏弱,对于大降水出现较多的地区预报平均准确率为25-30%。     

阿拉善左旗雷暴活动特征分析

利用阿拉善左旗气象局1971—2000年30年的雷暴资料,对阿拉善左旗雷暴的年、月、日变化及产生和消失的方位进行了统计分析,得到了阿拉善左旗雷暴的变化规律。     

Interdecadal variation of precipitation days in August in the Korean Peninsula

The present study examines a climate regime shift in the time series of the number of rainy days during August in the Korean Peninsula. The statistical change-point analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred in the time series around 1998, providing a rationale to divide it into two parts: 1975–1997 for the shorter rainy-day period and 1998–2012 for the longer rainy-day period. To examine the cause of recent rapid increases in the number of days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the averages of large-scale environments between the 1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period were analyzed.The differences in stream flows showed that anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the East Asian continent while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the western North Pacific at all layers of the troposphere. The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in the western North Pacific were associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) developed a little more toward the Korean Peninsula recently. Consequently, the Korean Peninsula has been affected by anomalous south westerlies that supplied warm and humid airs from low tropical regions to the Korean Peninsula. The vertical thermal instability (warm anomaly at lower-level and cold anomaly at middle and upper-level) developed near the Korean Peninsula. In addition, upper tropospheric jets were reinforced further recently near the Korean Peninsula to provide good environments for development of upward flows. The frequency of TCs that affect the Korean Peninsula in August also increased rapidly since 1998.     

Discharge and suspended sediment flux estimated along the mainstream of the Amazon and the Madeira Rivers (from in situ and MODIS Satellite Data)

Water and suspended sediment fluxes are considered during the period 2000–2008 in a region including the full Amazon River from the confluence of the Negro River to Santarém, the end part of the Solimões River, and the lower part of the Madeira River. Three types of data are used: water discharge estimated from field measurements, and suspended sediment obtained from field measurements and derived from MODIS satellite data. A generalized least square method including a propagating term is developed in order to propagate the signal upward and downward the river. The approach is introduced and tested. Several experiments are considered in order, first, to estimate the ability to propagate the signal from stations located before the confluences of Negro and Madeira Rivers to stations located on the Amazon River; second to investigate the possibility to propagate the signal along the Amazon River which dynamics is coupled with floodplains dynamics; and third to produce optimal solutions of water and sediment fluxes. For each experiment, the influence of field and satellite data is compared. The approach is efficient in the upper part of the region of study where the Solimões, the Negro and the Madeira Rivers meet and fails in the lower part of the region where interactions between Amazon River and floodplains play an important role on the fluxes’ dynamics. The optimal experiment includes in situ and satellite data from all the stations available and is used to analyse the recent evolution of suspended sediment flux along the Amazon River and its interaction with the large coupled floodplains. A high accumulation rate is observed during the 2000–2002 period, followed by decreasing rates until 2005 and by increasing values in 2006 and 2007. Our results suggest that floodplains extending along a river reach of 390 km-long between Itacoatiara and Óbidos trap about 15% of the suspended sediment flux passing at Óbidos. The simulated deposition rate is of about 0.3 Mt km⁻¹ yr⁻¹ corresponding to an accretion rate of about 27 mm yr⁻¹.     

叶面积指数(LAI)的遥感定量方法综述

总结了当前遥感定量研究叶面积指数(LAI)的两种主要方法:统计模型法和光学模型法,阐述了各自的机理和研究进展,在此基础上,讨论了两种方法的优缺点及未来的发展趋势。     

精密补偿器水准仪受地球磁场影响的检测统计分析

根据精密补偿器水准仪受地球磁场影响的检测统计,证实了磁场对不同型号的补偿器水准仪有不同程度的影响。分析了受磁影响的主要原因,并提出防磁措施及应注意的一些问题。     

自由网平差方法及统计特性新探

本文结合参数平差和主成分估计理论,导出了误差方程中含多重共线性时未知参数的求解公式,并以定理的形式,证明了主成分估计的解是极小范数解。由此,将主成分估计推广到秩亏网平差中,同时导出了未知参数估值之协因数阵的计算公式,同时,证明了自由网平差的传统特性。     

战区军事地理系列专题地图制图研究

本文论述了制作战区军事地理系列专题图的必要性和可能性:以济南战区为例,以军事地理学和地图制图学为基础理论,探讨了战区军事地理系列专题地图的图幅构成与设计的基本原理和方法;并在微机上初步研制了制作该系列专题地图的软件系统。