一次人工增雨作业中CA—FCM与其他评估方案的比较研究

根据2002年4月5日河南省人工催化增雨作业数据,分别采用作业区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案、区域趋势相关回归评估方案、区域趋势协变量多元回归评估方案、FCM（浮动对比区历史回归）评估方案、以降水量为协变量的CA—FCM评估方案和以降水量与整层大气可降水量为协变量的CA—FCM评估方案进行效果评估。结果表明：协变量由降水量和整层大气降水量2个组成的CA—FCM方法,由于引入了不受催化影响的物理协变量作为控制因子．以及采用了聚类分析提高了对比区和影响区相关性,其评估效果最好,显著水平高于0．05;其他评估方法评估效果较差。     

A straightforward approach for using single time domain simulations to assess characteristic extreme responses

Short-term wave design approach of marine structures, using nonlinear time domain simulations, is a design procedure that is recognized by various modern standard codes. One of the most challenging points of this approach is the evaluation of the characteristic extreme values for response parameters used in the design check equations. The most straightforward and recommended way to evaluate a response characteristic value is by fitting an extreme value probability distribution to the N-sample of extreme values extracted from N independent time domain simulations with duration equal to the short-term period indicated by the code, which is usually taken as 3 h. However, this procedure would not be practical for some types of marine structures, such as risers and mooring lines, under numerous design load cases and demanding huge finite element models. A more feasible approach would be to assess the response extreme value distribution using only a single short-term time domain simulation with duration shorter than 3 h. But reduced time simulations always introduce some additional statistical uncertainty into the extreme values estimates. This paper discusses a workable way of properly taking into account the statistical uncertainty associated with the simulation length in the assessment of a characteristic short-term extreme response value based on a single time series.     

Time series analysis of mantle cycles Part I: Periodicities and correlations among seven global isotopic databases

In this study, seven isotopic databases are presented and analyzed to identify mantle and crustal episodes on a global scale by focusing on periodicity ranging from 70 to 200 million years (Myr). The databases are the largest, or among the largest, compiled for each type of data – with an objective of finding some samples from every region of every continent, to make each database as global as conceivably possible. The databases contain zircon Lu/Hf isotopic data, whole-rock Sm/Nd isotopic data, U/Pb detrital zircon ages, U/Pb igneous zircon ages, U/Pb non-zircon ages, whole-rock Re/Os isotopic data, and large igneous province ages. Part I of this study focuses on the periodicities of age histograms and geochemical averages developed from the seven databases, via spectral and cross-correlation analyses. Natural physical cycles often propagate in exact integer multiples of a fundamental cycle, referred to as harmonics. The tests show that harmonic geological cycles of ～93.5 and ～187 Myr have persisted throughout terrestrial history, and the cyclicities are statistically significant for U/Pb igneous zircon ages, U/Pb detrital zircon ages, U/Pb zircon-rim ages, large igneous province ages, mean ε_Hf(t) for all samples, mean ε_Hf(t) values for igneous-only samples, and relative abundance of mafic rocks. Equally important, cross-correlation analyses show these seven time-series are nearly synchronous (±7 Myr) with a model consisting of periodicities of 93.5 and 187 Myr. Additionally, the similarities between peaks in the 93.5 and 187 Myr mantle cycles and terminal ages of established and suspected superchrons provide a framework for predicting and testing superchron periodicity.     

黑河流域降水统计——动力降尺度问题研究

依据区域气候模式RIEMS2.0输出的3 km高分辨率数据和站点降水记录分析了中国西北黑河流域降水的动力降尺度和统计—动力降尺度问题,检验了多种因子组合下多元线性回归（MLR）和贝叶斯模式平均（BMA）降尺度模型,评估了降尺度降水的均方根误差、相关系数、方差百分率及“负降水”偏差率等方面的统计特征。结果表明,动力降尺度降水相关系数最高,误差也最大,降水方差达到观测值的1.5～2倍;除相关系数外,统计—动力降尺度模型的几个统计特征均最优,纯统计模型次之。检验表明,仅用700 hPa位势高度场、经向风和比湿等构建的统计降尺度模型估计的站点降水相关系数较低,均方根误差也较大。当在统计降尺度模型中引入模式降水因子后站点降水的估计得到明显改善,其中MLR类模型的降水相关系数和方差百分率均明显高于BMA类模型,均方根误差二者相当,但前者“负降水”出现频次明显大于后者,“负降水”偏差主要出现在降水稀少的冬半年及黑河中、下游干旱或极端干旱区,上游出现频率较低,其中MLR类模型“负降水”出现频次明显高于BMA类模型,后者仅出现在黑河中、下游地区。包含模式降水因子的统计—动力降尺度模型能减少“负降水”出现...     

雷暴单体合并进行中雷达回波参数演变及闪电活动的特征分析

雷暴单体合并是促使对流系统成长、增强、持久的重要因素,合并与灾害性天气有着密切的关系。针对23次合并样本（其中有闪电活动的样本10例）,利用多普勒雷达和Safir3000闪电定位系统的探测数据,基于雷达回波参数的构建与计算,分别以一次冰雹暴雨过程和一次强降水过程为例,对合并及雷暴系统的演变进行了物理过程分析,对所有样本特征进行了统计归纳。最后发现并验证了雷达回波参数F_V40up-6（即6 km以上对流单体大于40 dBz体积的变率）常常在合并进行中出现突然减小现象,简称为"突降";同时揭示了合并进行中闪电活动的特征。具体结论如下:（1）就合并最初开始位置而言,高度在5 km之下的样本最多,比例达86%。从合并用时看（即RHI图中30 dBz回波开始衔接至最强回波合为一体为止）,全都在6-36 min,其中用时在12 min以内的占56.5%;达到30 min的仅占16%。合并开始后,在97%的样本中,回波参数V₄₀（即大于40 dBz的总体积）、V_40up-6（即6 km以上大于40 dBz的总体积）出现增大;V₄₀增幅为7%-590%,V_40up-6增幅为3%-638%;V_40up-6最大值出现时刻距合并开始时刻12-18 min的,占总样本的60.1%;24-36 min的,占总样本的34.8%。（2）在雷暴单体合并进行中有"突降"现象的,占总样本的87%;其中又有77%的"突降"出现在距合并开始后的6-18 min内。（3）在10个闪电活动样本中,有9个样本在合并开始后,闪电频数出现了"跃增",甚至出现峰值;全部样本中参与放电的主正电荷区高度随着"突降"均有下降,降幅在1-4 km,而此时的闪电频数几乎没有变化。      

基于青藏高原春季感热异常信号的中国东部夏季降水统计预测模型

使用1980-2014年由青藏高原中东部的地面气象观测台站观测资料计算得到的地表感热通量以及中国东部高分辨率的降水格点资料,在年代际变化和年际变率两个时间尺度上,使用最大协方差分析方法研究了青藏高原春季感热与中国东部夏季6、7和8月降水的关系,基于最大协方差关联因子的时间尺度分解回归分析方法建立了一个降水统计预测模型。青藏高原春季感热的各个关联预报因子与中国东部夏季各月降水的相关分析表明,在年代际成分中,6、7和8月在中国东部绝大部分地区均存在显著相关,方差贡献分别为75.6%、99.9%和79.7%;在年际成分中,相关区域在6月是华南地区、华北沿海地区和江淮流域,7月是华南地区西南部、长江流域、东北地区东南部和黄河中下游地区,8月是东北地区和华南地区西部,方差贡献分别为42.7%、43.4%和32.0%。预测模型的解释方差分析和后报试验检验表明,7月对整个中国东部地区预测效果最好,6月主要在长江以南地区,而8月主要在东北地区和华南地区西部预测效果较好。该预测模型能很好描述青藏高原春季感热与中国东部夏季各月降水的关联性,并对局地降水实现较好的定量预测,具有在短期气候预测业务应用的价值。      

Automatic selection of weights for GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: site selection of transmission towers as a case study

Transmission line (TL) siting consists of finding suitable land to build transmission towers. This is just one of the numerous complex geographical problems often solved using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), which is a set of techniques that weight several geographical features to identify suitable locations. This technique is mostly employed using expert knowledge to identify the correct set of weights; thus adding a certain amount of subjectivity to the analysis, meaning that for the same problem if we change the experts involved, we may reach different results.This research is a first attempt to try and solve this issue. We employed a statistical analysis to quantitatively calculate these weights and we tested our method on a case study about transmission line siting in Switzerland. We compared the distances between each sample in our dataset, in this case study these are location of transmission towers, with each geographical feature, e.g. distance from water features. Then we calculate the same distances but for random points, sampled throughout the study area. The reasoning behind this method is that if samples present a distance from a geographic feature statistically different from the random, it means that the feature played an important role in dictating the location of the sample. In this case for instance, high-voltage transmission towers are purposely built as far away as possible from urban areas. Random points are on the contrary by definition sampled without any constraint. Therefore, when comparing the two datasets, we should find that transmission towers have a larger average distance from urban areas than random points. This allows us to determine that this criterion (i.e. distance from urban centers) is important for planning new TL.The results indicate that this method can successfully weight and rank the most important criteria to be considered for an MCDA analysis, in line with weights proposed in the literature. The advantage of the proposed technique is that it completely excludes human factors, thus potentially increasing the social acceptance of the MCDA results.     

地球轨道旋回沉积节律研究进展——兼论轨道旋回的沉积学特征、年代学意义和研究方法

地球轨道旋回是古代沉积记录中常见的由地球轨道参数变动控制的沉积节律,它不仅自身表现显著的节律性,而且通过反馈体系强烈影响着沉积作用。同时,轨道旋回节律在不同的沉积背景下以不同的沉积特征显现和规则性叠加。地球轨道旋回赋有的规则频率变化特征又使其具有年代学意义和应用价值,它是天文地质学、地层学及沉积学研究的重点内容。根据国内外资料综述了这些方面的研究进展,并探讨了地球轨道旋回的研究方法。     

全球变化中的地球化学基线值研究及中国的研究现状

介绍了“全球地球化学制图”(IGM)项目及其在中国的进展情况。展望了我国地球化学基线值研究工作方向及研究重点。     

2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验

随着精细化降水预报的要求和发展,模式对站点定量降水预报已成为天气预报业务的主要参考依据之一。本文对乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统DOGRAFS v1.0在2016年夏季全疆105个站点的24h累积降水量的预报性能进行统计检验。结果表明：(1)除山区外,全疆晴天预报准确率达到85%以上,其中南疆盆地、吐鄯托盆地晴天预报准确率达到95%以上。(2)对于小雨出现较多的站点,预报准确率达到55%以上、部分站点达到70%,同时上述区域存在15%左右的报强率;对于降水较少的南疆盆地和吐鄯托盆地整体以漏报为主,漏报率在80%以上。(3)北疆大部分地区和南疆西部山区的中雨预报准确率整体在30%左右;中雨日数较多的中天山及其两侧预报准确率约60%,该区域也存在20%左右的报强率;其他地区预报降水较实况以偏弱为主。(4)大雨及以上量级降水,模式预报整体表现为偏弱,对于大降水出现较多的地区预报平均准确率为25-30%。