Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

新冠肺炎流行病学模型的最优参数化

现如今,新冠肺炎(COVID-19)严重威胁着世界各国人民的生命健康.许多流行病学模型已经被用于为政策制定者和世界卫生组织提供决策参考.为了更加深刻的理解疫情趋势的变化特征,许多参数优化算法被用于反演模型参数.本文提议使用结合了高斯-牛顿法和梯度下降法的Levenberg-Marquardt(LMA)算法来优化模型参数...     

渤、黄海北部海冰年代时空变化特征分析

本文取上世纪后50年至2003年度冬季渤海地区气温作为与渤海冬季冰情有关的气候指标。分析得出,渤海地区冬季气温随着年代呈上升趋势,特别是80年代中期至本世纪初尤为明显。受其影响,渤海冬季的冰情时空分布状况发生了较大变化。其特点是:初冰日较多年平均值推后、终冰日较多年平均值提前,冰期较多年平均值偏短,冰厚较多年平均值偏薄,结冰范围(沿岸固定冰宽度和浮冰外缘线)较多年平均值偏小,甚至有些海区已多年未曾见到海冰了。     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

质点-网格海冰模式在渤海的数值预报试验

在海冰动力学和热力学的研究基础上,开发应用于渤海的质点-网格海冰模式.该模式采用质点-网格法,有效地避免了传统海冰模式的数值扩散问题.该模式采用冰厚分布函数取代传统渤海业务海冰预报模式中平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水的三类海冰分型.应用质点-网格海冰模式对2003年～2004年冬季渤海冰情进行了业务化逐日数值预报试验,并对预报结果进行统计检验和分析比较.     

圆形数值波浪水池斜向和多向入射波浪模拟研究

为了研究斜向入射波浪,基于三维不可压缩两相流模型,开发了一套圆形数值波浪水池数值模型。在圆形波浪水池中,通过源项造波法成功生成了任意入射方向的波浪,并且利用人工摩擦项模拟阻尼区以数值耗散反射波浪。模型基于嵌入式多块网格体系,采用FVM法(finite volume method)离散Navier-Stokes方程,VOF法(volume of fluid)追踪自由水面。试验结果表明,斜向入射波浪的模拟结果与理论值基本一致,圆形波浪水池在模拟斜向入射波浪时,有效区域的面积较传统波浪水池显著增大,而且有效区域受波浪入射角度的影响也较小。同时,通过叠加多列斜向入射波浪,模拟出了多向交叉波列,并通过与理论结果对比,发现其具有较高的精度。     

气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展

气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。 统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。      

我国多雨季和少雨季的一些统计特征

通过对我国31年124季降水距平图的分析发现1.全国性的特多(少)雨季中,在高原东侧(95—105°E间)总有一少(多)雨带出现。2.多(少)雨季之后仍为多(少)雨季的持续性以春一夏最好,秋冬最差。3.一年中出现多雨季的次数与黑潮海温和西太平洋副高强度呈正相关。     

HP—3808A测距仪测距精度分析

本文采用数理统计方法,详细分析了HP—3808A激光测距仪近几年来积累的测量数据,求得仪器平均测距相对精度为1:70万。并且讨论了进一步提高测距精度的技术措施。