中国近海异常海温数值预报模式研究Ⅱ.因子分析和试预报

首先对近海异常海温模式的主要影响因子作了概量估计.在此基础上对形成异常高温和异常低温的有利天气系统、主要影响因子和形成时间尺度进行了比较,进而对试预报(后报)个例的选取、初值的形成、试预报结果及其检验进行了说明.最后对这一研究进行了总结和讨论.     

Benthodytes palauta,a new species of deep-sea holothuroid (Elasipodida: Psychropotidae) from the western Pacific Ocean

A new species of Psychropotidae holothuroid, Benthodytes palauta sp. nov., was collected from the Kyushu-Palau Ridge at a depth of 2666 m. This new species is characterized by a leathery body wall, red-violet skin, five pairs of dorsal papillae, nineteen pairs of tube feet, and a narrow brim. The internal organs include one Polian vesicle, two tufts of gonads, and no respiratory trees. Ventral ossicles are large and spinous, with crosses of four arms with central bipartite apophyses. Papillae ossicles are crosses with four arms with bipartite apophyses. The dorsal ossicles were few and large, and cross-shaped with four arms and central bipartite apophyses. Tentacle ossicles were large and rod-shaped or slender rods. Gonad ossicles were primary crosses of four arms and brim ossicles were cross-shaped with spines. The phylogenetic analyses of this species support that B. palauta sp. nov. belongs to Benthodytes. Furthermore, the paraphyletic relationships were confirmed; however, a revision of the genus Benthodytes is needed to resolve its phylogenetic relationship.     

Cloud to IDA: Efficient fragility assessment with limited scaling

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) leads to curves expressed in terms of structural response versus intensity, commonly known as the IDA curves. It is known that implementation of IDA usually involves significant computational effort and most often significant scaling of the original records to various intensity levels. Employing as the performance variable the critical demand to capacity ratio (DCR) throughout the structure, which is equal to unity at the onset of the limit state, facilitates the identification of the intensity values at the onset of a desired limit state and hence the implementation of the IDA procedure. Employing the structural response to un‐scaled records and the corresponding regression‐based response predictions (a.k.a., the “Cloud Analysis”) helps in identifying the range of intensity values corresponding to demand to capacity ratio values in the vicinity of unity. The Cloud to IDA procedure for structural fragility assessment is proposed on the premise of exploiting the Cloud Analysis results to obtain the IDA curves both with minimum number of analyses and minimum amount of scaling. The transverse frame of a shear‐critical 7‐story older RC building in Van Nuys, CA, which is modeled in Opensees with fiber‐section considering the flexural‐shear‐axial interactions and the bar slip, is employed as a case study. It is demonstrated, by comparing the results to IDA and other state of the art non‐linear dynamic procedures based on no scaling or spectral‐shape‐compatible scaling, that the Cloud to IDA procedure leads to reliable results in terms of structural fragility and risk for the prescribed limit state.     

Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.     

Modified seismic design of concentrically braced frames considering flexural demand on columns

Special concentrically braced frames (SCBFs) are considered as one of the most economical and effective lateral force‐resisting systems in structures located in the regions of high seismicity. Steel braces in a braced frame undergo large axial deformations in tension and compression to dissipate the seismic energy. However, past studies have shown that SCBFs exhibit the soft‐story hinge mechanisms and unpredictable failure patterns under earthquake loading conditions. These inelastic responses along with the use of continuous structural sections as columns over consecutive floors induce flexural demand that is not considered in the current design practice. In this study, the evaluation of seismic performance of nine SCBFs designed as per the current practice has been carried out for three different story heights (i.e., three‐story, six‐story, and nine‐story) and three types of brace configurations (namely, chevron, split X, and single X). Three additional design techniques are also explored based on (i) the inclusion of column moments in the design; (ii) the theory of formation of plastic hinges; and (iii) the design of braces considering the forces computed at their post‐buckled stages. Nonlinear dynamic analyses of these study frames have been evaluated numerically using a computer software Perform‐3D for a suite of 40 ground motions representing the design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake hazard levels. Analyses results showed that the SCBFs designed as per the modified procedures achieved the desired performance objectives without the formation of soft‐story mechanism. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seven decades of hydrogeomorphological changes in a near-natural (Sense River) and a hydropower-regulated (Sarine River) pre-Alpine river floodplain in Western Switzerland

Hydropower alteration of the natural flow and sediment regime can severely degrade hydromorphology, thereby threatening biodiversity and overall ecosystem processes of rivers and their floodplains. Using sequences of aerial images, we quantified seven decades (1938/1942–2013) of spatiotemporal changes in channel and floodplain morphology, as well as changes in the physical habitats, of three floodplain river reaches of the Swiss pre-Alps, two hydropower-regulated and one near-natural. In the Sarine River floodplain, within the first decades of hydropower impairment, the magnitude and frequency of flood events (Q₂, Q₁₀, Q₃₀) decreased substantially. As a result, the area of pioneer floodplain habitats that depend on flood activity and sediment dynamic, such as bare sediments, decreased dramatically by approximately 95%. However, by 2013 vegetated areas had generally increased in comparison to the pre-regulation period in 1943, indicating general vegetative colonization. Between 1943 and 2013, the active channel underwent essential narrowing (up to 62% width reduction in the residual flow reach) and habitat turnover rates were very low (5% of the total floodplain area changed habitat type five to six times). In contrast, from the 1950s onwards, the near-natural floodplain of the Sense River experienced recurrent narrowing and widening, and frequent changes between bare and vegetated areas, reflecting the shifting habitat mosaic concept typical for natural floodplains. In the three reaches investigated, we found that the active floodplain width and erosion of vegetated areas were primarily controlled by medium to large floods (Q₁₀, Q₃₀), which combined with reduced time intervals between ordinary floods ≥ Q₂ most likely mobilized streambed sediments and limited the ability of vegetation to establish itself on bare gravel bars within the parafluvial zone. These findings can contribute to restoration action plans such as controlled flooding and sediment replenishments in the Sarine and other floodplain rivers of the Alps. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国K-Ar法地质年龄标准物质ZBH-15黑云母的研制

为满足K-Ar定年中K和40Ar*分析的质量监控及Ar-Ar定年时中子通量监测的需要,我国氩同位素专家研制了一种K-Ar法年龄标准物质———采自北京房山花岗闪长岩体的ZBH-15黑云母。其40Ar/39Ar阶段加热实验结果表明,年龄谱平坦,39Ar析出量高达98.3%。坪年龄为132.2±0.2 Ma,总气体年龄为131.3±0.5 Ma,证明该黑云母结晶以后未受过热扰动。36Ar/40Ar-39Ar/40Ar反等时线年龄为132.3±0.8 Ma,40Ar/36Ar初始值为293.9±1.4,与大气氩丰度比值(295.5±0.5)处于同一范围,表明该样品不含过剩氩。在0.05显著性水平下经统计学检验,证明K和40Ar*的F值小于F临界值,说明该样品是均匀的。国内外7个实验室参加了K和40Ar*的定值分析。用同位素稀释法测定40Ar*含量,火焰光度法测定K含量。统计检验结果显示,K和40Ar*的全部定值数据服从正态分布并具等精度。定值分析结果的认定值及不确定度分别为:40Ar*=(1.814±0.014)×10-9mol/g,K=7.59%±0.02%,K-Ar年龄t=132.8±1.3 Ma(2σ)。此标准物质纯度为98.8%,粒度为0.15~0.25 mm,重量为2070 g,缩分成225瓶,每瓶9.2 g。可供我国K-Ar和Ar-Ar法实验室使用43 a。     

农业生态地质环境质量综合评价：以吉林省乾安县为例

乾安县是吉林省重要的粮食生产县之一。近３０年来,由于人口剧增,人为对农业资源的过量开发,导致干旱缺水,耕地碱化、贫瘠化和沙化,地氟病也十分严重,制约了农业的可持续发展。本文以农业生态环境地质的理论为基础,以系统论为指导,将该区的地质地貌作为一个大系统,该系统由水资源环境、土地资源环境、生物资源环境和农业社会环境４个子系统组成。进而,建立了农业生态地质环境质量评价的指标体系,并采用层次权重分析法和综     

港口波况恶化的观测和分析技术

首先分析了港口波况恶化的可能成因,确定观测和分析目标。根据港内波浪中船行波占相当份量的因素和测量作业不能干扰港务活动的要求,讨论了有关港内波浪观测仪器设备、测站布设、观测方法和质量控制的问题。根据波况恶化分析的要求和非平稳波动过程的特点,研究了波浪频谱和特征值的计算、波浪能量的方向分布、不规则波沿海墙的反射和风浪、涌浪及船行波计算的技术。最后作为实例对某港进行了波况恶化的观测和分析。     

石嘴山一矿地质构造的控气性分析

通过分析地质构造与煤层瓦斯含量,涌出量及煤与瓦斯突出之间的关系。总结出地质构造控气（煤层瓦斯）的四种类型及地质构造分级控突（煤与瓦斯突出）的三种形式,对矿井开展斯预测与防治有指导作用。