A statistical approach to disentangle environmental forcings in a lacustrine record: the Lago Chungará case (Chilean Altiplano)

A high resolution multiproxy study (magnetic susceptibility, X-ray diffraction, XRF scanner, gray-colour values, Total Organic Carbon, Total Inorganic Carbon, Total Carbon and Total Biogenic Silica) of the sedimentary infill of Lago Chungará (northern Chilean Altiplano) was undertaken to unravel the environmental forcings controlling its evolution using a number of different multivariate statistical techniques. Redundancy analyses enabled us to identify the main provenance of the studied proxies whereas stratigraphically unconstrained cluster analyses allowed us to distinguish the “outsiders” as result of anomalous XRF scanner acquisitions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to identify and isolate the main underlying environmental gradients that characterize the sedimentary infill of Lago Chungará. The first eigenvector of the PCA could be interpreted as an indicator of changes in the input of volcaniclastic material, whereas the second one would indicate changes in water availability. The chronological model of this sedimentary sequence was constructed using 17 AMS ¹⁴C and 1 ²³⁸U/²³⁰Th dates in order to characterize the volcaniclastic input and the changes in water availability in the last 12,300 cal years BP. Comparison of the reconstructed volcaniclastic input of Lago Chungará with the dust particle record from the Nevado Sajama ice core suggested that the Parinacota volcano eruptions were the main source of dust during the mid and Late Holocene rather than the dry out lakes as has previously been pointed out. The comparison of the water availability reconstruction of Lago Chungará with three of the most detailed paleoenvironmental records of the region (Paco Cocha, Lake Titicaca and Salar Uyuni) showed an heterogeneous (and sometimes contradictory) temporal and spatial pattern distribution of moisture. Although the four reconstructions showed a good correlation, each lacustrine ecosystem responded differently to the moisture oscillations that affected this region. The variations in the paleoenvironmental records could be attributed to the dating uncertainities, lake size, lake morphology, catchment size and lacustrine ecosystem responses to the abrupt arid events.     

中-东西伯利亚及俄罗斯远东地区构造和成矿作用的研究进展

俄罗斯地质学家在近20年来以岩石圈板块构造理论和地体分析方法,对中-东西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东地区构造和区域成矿作用的研究取得了一系列重要进展。这些进展集中体现在2个多国合作项目取得的成果和2部最新的科学专著中。作者重点介绍了中-东西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东地区区域构造演化、区域构造和区域成矿单元及一些重要金属矿床的基本特征,并对本区地质演化的某些重要问题（转换陆缘、蒙古-鄂霍茨克造山带等）做了讨论,以此向读者提供一个有关俄罗斯东部地区上述领域基本研究现状的梗概。     

Inelastic spectra to predict period elongation of structures under earthquake loading

Period lengthening, exhibited by structures when subjected to strong ground motions, constitutes an implicit proxy of structural inelasticity and associated damage. However, the reliable prediction of the inelastic period is tedious and a multi‐parametric task, which is related to both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Along these lines, the objective of this paper is to investigate and quantify the elongated fundamental period of reinforced concrete structures using inelastic response spectra defined on the basis of the period shift ratio (T_in/T_el). Nonlinear oscillators of varying yield strength (expressed by the force reduction factor, R_y), post‐yield stiffness (a_y) and hysteretic laws are examined for a large number of strong motions. Constant‐strength, inelastic spectra in terms of T_in/T_el are calculated to assess the extent of period elongation for various levels of structural inelasticity. Moreover, the influence that structural characteristics (R_y, a_y and degrading level) and strong‐motion parameters (epicentral distance, frequency content and duration) exert on period lengthening are studied. Determined by regression analyses of the data obtained, simplified equations are proposed for period lengthening as a function of R_y and T_el. These equations may be used in the framework of the earthquake record selection and scaling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical and empirical analyses of the triggers of coastal chalk cliff failure

The triggering factors of rock falls remain unknown due to a lack of exhaustive, regular and accurate surveys. Based on an inventory of 331 rock falls collected weekly between 2002 and 2009 from Veules‐les‐Roses to Le Treport (Upper Normandy), the relationships between coastal chalk cliff rock falls (dates and geomorphological features) and external factors commonly agreed as triggering (rainfall, temperature variations, tide and wind) are studied. The combination of multivariate statistical and empirical analyses indicates that (1) ‘cold and dry weather’ and ‘high rainfall and high wind’ are the conditions most likely to trigger rock falls, (2) the main triggering factors of rock falls are effective rainfall (for rock falls mostly between 200 and 1400 m³ or larger than 10 000 m³ and coming from the whole cliff face), freeze/thaw cycles (especially for rock falls smaller than 200 m³ and coming from the foot and top of the cliff face) and marine roughness (rock falls mainly smaller than 200 m³ and coming from the cliff foot). However, the contribution of each factor to triggering is difficult to determine because of combinations of factors (85% of 331 cases), relays of processes and hysteresis phenomena. In view of these first results, it is still presumptuous to predict the location and time of triggering of rock falls. However, the statistical and naturalistic approaches adopted and the observations made in this study are from an original database, and constitute a real starting point for the prediction and prevention of the hazard of coastal chalk cliff rock falls in Upper Normandy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向GTP的三维地质模型空间剖切方法与应用

广义三棱柱（GTP）是近年来提出并被广泛应用于三维地质建模领域的一种较为成熟的空间数据模型,可满足大多数地质钻孔数据的三维地质建模的要求。然而,现有针对GTP模型的三维空间剖切分析方法,仍无法适用于偏斜钻孔数据所建三维地质模型高效多次任意剖切、不能支持较为复杂的地质模型空间分析的问题。本文通过对GTP剖切算法改进研究,提出了采用动态四面体剖分法减小数据冗余;鉴于GTP形态较为复杂,可对剖切后保留多面体进行拓扑关系的重组,解决任意多次剖切问题;将多次“面-体”形式的单剖切运算组合为一次“体-体”形式的复合剖切运算的方法,可高效实现对三维地质模型空间分析。本文着重面向GTP体元的多重任意切剖平面的剖切问题,在分析了GTP体元特征的基础上,弥补了三维地质建模领域中对GTP体元任意、多重剖切方法研究的不足。应用实例表明,上述改进算法可以提高GTP剖切计算速度,并能够快速实现巷道掘进模拟,以及空间开挖模拟等复杂的空间分析功能。     

Beta Gyres in Global Analysis Fields

A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre, which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current. Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Adminis-tration (KMA), the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP, and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our anal...     

数值预报同化系统中观测资料误差分析

在观测资料同化系统中,观测误差均方差与背景场误差均方差共同决定着观测信息与背景场信息的相对重要性以及这些信息在空间及不同变量间的扩展方式,故在资料同化系统中起到决定性作用.因此,观测误差均方差的合理估计是非常重要的.采用贝塞尔函数拟合方法,从探空观测资料与背景场的偏差(IV)协方差中分离出探空资料的观测误差均方差与模式的背景场误差均方差;再从其他观测资料偏差协方差中扣除背景场误差均方差来估计其它观测误差均方差.观测误差均方差分析使用2006年8月1-31日观测资料,国家气象中心T213L31全球中期分析预报系统的6小时预报作为背景场.结果显示估计的观测误差均方差是比较合理的.     

灰色理论在地球物理勘探开发中的应用综述

简要介绍了灰色理论的基本原理及灰关联分析、灰色聚类、灰色预测、灰色建模四种基本方法.通过回顾灰色理论的发展历程及研究现状,以及灰色理论在地震解释、地质评价、测井解释三方面应用研究的最新进展,指出灰色理论的发展趋势和方向.随着油田勘探开发进程的不断深入,灰色理论将受到越来越广泛的重视,在油气的勘探开发中所发挥的作用将越来越明显.     

基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数计算公式

为更加合理地计算基于位移的高桩码头抗震设计动力放大系数,采用40组地震动记录研究了双向水平地震作用下的码头动力放大系数。研究表明,码头的偏心距和分段长度以及地震波的入射角度对动力放大系数影响较大,地震动强度和近断层效应的影响可近似予以忽略。基于对动力放大系数计算结果的统计分析,提出了相应的计算公式,并确定了动力放大系数的变异系数和概率分布。     

2D numerical investigation of segmental tunnel lining under seismic loading

Segmental tunnel linings are now often used for seismic areas. However, the influence of segment joints on the segmental lining behavior under seismic loading has not been thoroughly considered in the literature. This paper presents a numerical study, which has been performed under seismic circumstance, to investigate the factors that affect segmental tunnel lining behavior. Analyses have been carried out using a two-dimensional finite difference element model. The proposed model allows studying the effect of the rotational joint stiffness, radial stiffness and the axial stiffness of the longitudinal joints. The numerical results show that a segmental lining can perform better than a continuous lining during earthquake. It has been seen that the influence of the joint distribution, the joint rotational stiffness, the joint axial stiffness, Young׳s modulus of the ground surrounding the tunnel, the lateral earth pressure factor and the maximum shear strain should not be neglected. Some important differences of the segmental tunnel lining behavior under static and seismic conditions have been highlighted.