A study on feasibility of SI for identification of earthquake damages in Taiwan

Using the actual damage data of the strong earthquakes in Taiwan, the effectiveness of the earthquake risk indices, namely, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral intensity (SI), is verified. PGA and Housner's [Housner GW. Spectrum intensity of strong-motion earthquakes. In: Proceedings of symposium on earthquakes and blast effects on structures. EERI, UCLA; 1952] definition of SI are directly compared. A three-parameter spectral intensity system with spectral intensities SI_a, SI_v, and SI_d in the acceleration, velocity, and displacement regions, respectively, is discussed. Here, the effectiveness of SI, SI_a, SI_v, and SI_d has been compared by using the available earthquake-damage data in Taiwan. Three period ranges, namely, 0.1–0.6, 0.6–1.6, and 1.6–3.0 s were used for structures of 1–6 stories, 7–20 stories, and 21 and more stories, respectively. The results indicate that the three-parameter system is a good risk index of the damage potential of earthquakes.     

一次山区龙卷的双部雷达回波监测分析

利用秦皇岛S波段和承德C波段天气雷达资料、NCEP 1°×1°6h再分析资料、中尺度物理量及灾情报告,对2009年7月20日河北承德平泉县一次龙卷天气过程进行了综合分析。结果表明,龙卷发生在西高东低的山谷中,冷空气南压,高空西南急流动量下传,使得低层中尺度水平风场-V分量沿山谷西部增大,产生不对称小尺度山谷风次级环流,...     

大别山北缘地质找矿中遥感方法的研究

本项工作着重探讨在植被覆盖、地质背景十分复杂的地区，利用遥感信息寻找金矿及其它多金属矿的方法。即从地层岩系、构造及构造交叉部位、蚀变带这三个方面，进行地质找矿专题信息特征提取方法的研究。最后，通过信息提取及影像综合特征，进行遥感地质制图，圈定找矿有希望的地段。     

1981-2008年中国陆地植被NPP对气候变化响应的敏感性试验

在验证CENTURY模型对中国陆地植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity,NPP)模拟能力的基础上,利用该模型探讨了1981-2008年中国陆地植被NPP的年际变异和变化趋势对CO₂浓度、温度和降水变化的响应。结果表明,中国陆地植被NPP对不同气候因子的响应程度存在明显不同。其中,CO₂浓度变化对植被NPP年际变异的影响不显著,但能够引起中国大部分地区植被NPP趋势系数增大;温度对中国中高纬度地区植被NPP的年际变化影响显著,但就全国范围而言,植被NPP年际变异对温度变化的响应程度总体低于对降水变化的响应程度;降水变化是对中国植被NPP变化趋势起主导作用的气候因子。此外,综合考虑温度和降水变化的影响发现,植被NPP变化趋势的响应特征类似于降水单独变化时植被NPP变化趋势的响应特征。     

世界主要海洋强国综合实力测评研究

文章在回顾世界海洋强国发展历程和分析现阶段发展特点的基础上,构建国家层面的海洋综合实力评价指标体系,并结合层次分析法和加权积决策理论建立了综合实力测评模型。通过选取世界上8个有代表意义的海洋强国,结合其海洋综合实力的现状分析,利用测评模型对其进行测评排序,为我国"海洋强国"战略的科学规划提供参考。     

Groundwater storage change detection from in situ and GRACE-based estimates in major river basins across India

ABSTRACT

India has been the subject of many recent groundwater studies due to the rapid depletion of groundwater in large parts of the country. However, few if any of these studies have examined groundwater storage conditions in all of India’s river basins individually. Herein we assess groundwater storage changes in all 22 of India’s major river basins using in situ data from 3420 observation locations for the period 2003–2014. One-month and 12-month standardized precipitation index measures (SPI-1 and SPI-12) indicate fluctuations in the long-term pattern. The Ganges and Brahmaputra basins experienced long-term decreasing trends in precipitation in both 1961–2014 and the study period, 2003–2014. Indeterminate or increasing precipitation trends occurred in other basins. Satellite-based and in situ groundwater storage time series exhibited similar patterns, with increases in most of the basins. However, diminishing groundwater storage (at rates of >0.4 km³/year) was revealed in the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin based on in situ observations, which is particularly important due to its agricultural productivity.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

三维地震数据离散光滑插值的共轭梯度法

针对三维地震数据插值,提出采用Laplacian算子进行光滑约束的插值方法,并借鉴Mallet研究的离散光滑插值思路,采用预条件共轭梯度法,直接生成网格节点上的值,从而回避寻求满足插值方程的函数. 为了实现其中Laplacian算子的快速求逆,文中引入Claerbout螺旋坐标系谱因式分解理论. 在螺旋坐标系下,Laplacian算子的表示矩阵具有Toeplitz结构,其快速求逆可由谱法LU分解实现. 基于二维离散光滑插值,文中还给出共轭梯度法与NMO相结合的沿时间切片逐层处理的离散光滑插值流程. 最后,应用该方法对模型数据和实际三维地震数据进行了处理.     

基于土地利用变化的生态风险评价——以广西岑溪市为例

该文以1999年及2009年岑溪市土地利用数据为来源,在GIS的支持下,分析了10年来研究区内的土地利用变化的时空特点及其转化过程,结合土地利用综合指数、耕地垦殖指数、植被覆盖指数、景观破碎度指数评价了土地利用变化的生态风险。研究表明：研究区域内10年间土地利用类型发生了复杂的相互转换,其中林草地、建设用地和耕地为研究区内变化面积最大的3种土地利用类型;受经济快速发展和城市化进程加快的影响,土地利用的广度和深度不断增大,全市土地利用趋于破碎化,土地生态风险程度有所增加。     

多种模式降水预报的稳定性特征研究

预报的稳定性是指对同一时段在不同时间发布的多时效预报结论的一致性,是模式预报质量的一个重要方面,较大的不稳定性会给使用者造成困扰。为深入了解业务常用模式的稳定性,使用相对标准偏差指标计算不同时效预报的降水量波动大小,并改进了Flip-Flop指数（改进后简称FFnorm）,计算多时效降水量预报变化趋势的翻转程度,衡量预报变化趋势的稳定性,对2种全球模式（ECMWF、NCEP-GFS）、3种区域模式（CMA-MESO、CMA-SH9、HHUPS-ST）,在中国6个气候分区中降水预报的稳定性进行对比分析,分为实况有降水和暴雨及以上降水2种情况进行了讨论。结果表明：实况有降水时,相对区域模式来说,全球模式的多时效降水预报的相对标准偏差较小,即模式降水量预报的波动较小;各模式对西南区的西部、东北区的东部以及华南区的南部预报的波动性相对较小,西北区的西部波动性较大。就多时效降水量预报变化趋势而言,2种情况下均为CMA-MESO、NCEP-GFS和 ECMWF的稳定性较好,其FFnorm指数小于HHUPS-ST和CMA-SH9模式,其中CMA-MESO对西南区、华南部分地区降水量预报变化趋势的稳定性较为突出;CMA-SH9的指数最大,多时效降水量预报变化趋势稳定性较差;各模式对长江中下游地区的FFnorm指数相对较大,多时效预报趋势的稳定性较差。有降水时,CMA-MESO随时效临近的降水量预报变化趋势稳定（单调递增、单调递减或不变）的频次最多,其次是NCEP-GFS,2种降水情况下,该2种模式的降水量预报均为随时效临近单调递增次数大于递减次数,且CMA-MESO单调递增特征尤其显著。以上特征能够为模式调试和预报决策提供参考。