Forest law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon: Costs and income effects

Despite recent success in reducing forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon, additional forest conservation efforts, for example, through ‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’ (REDD+), could significantly contribute to global climate-change mitigation. Economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services could promote conservation, but deforestation often occurs on land without crucial tenure-security prerequisites. Improving the enforcement of existing regulatory disincentives thus represents an important element of Brazil's anti-deforestation action plan. However, conservation law enforcement costs and benefits have been much less studied than for conditional payments. We develop a conceptual framework and a spatially explicit model to analyze field-based regulatory enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon. We validate our model, based on historical deforestation and enforcement mission data from 2003 to 2008. By simulating the current conservation law enforcement practice, we analyze the costs of liability establishment and legal coercion for alternative conservation targets, and evaluate corresponding income impacts. Our findings suggest that spatial patterns of both deforestation and inspection costs markedly influence enforcement patterns and their income effects. Field-based enforcement is a highly cost-effective forest conservation instrument from a regulator's point of view, but comes at high opportunity costs for land users. Payments for environmental services could compensate costs, but will increase budget outlays vis-à-vis a command-and-control dominated strategy. Both legal and institutional challenges have to be overcome to make conservation payments work at a larger scale. Decision-makers may have to innovatively combine incentive and disincentive-based policy instruments in order to make tropical forest conservation both financially viable and socially compatible.     

层次分析及 GIS空间分析在矿山岩溶塌陷预测评估中的应用--以某大理石矿为例

以某大理石矿矿山地质环境调查资料为基础,通过对矿山岩溶塌陷的机理分析,采用层次分析法,选取地下水活动、覆盖层特征、岩溶发育程度和人类活动强度四个方面,共6个评价指标,建立某大理石矿岩溶塌陷预测评估体系。在确定各评价指标权重和各评价因子分级标准的基础上,以 MAPGIS 空间分析作为数据处理工具和系统运行平台,生成某大理石矿岩溶塌陷易发性分区图。     

The critical scale of fluctuation for active lateral forces in spatially variable undrained clays

This study addresses the phenomenon of the critical scale of fluctuation (SOF) for active lateral force (P_a) in undrained clay when there is a spatial variability in the clay. The phenomenon is significant under shear strength (τ_f) random fields but is insignificant under unit weight (γ) random fields. It is found that the phenomenon of the critical SOF is connected to the nature of the spatial averaging, which is “line averaging” under τ_f random fields and is “area averaging” under γ random fields. The former averaging effect (line) is significantly weaker than the latter (area), so the tendency for the critical slip plane to seek for a favorable location is stronger for the τ_f random field than for the γ random field. Hence, the phenomenon of the critical SOF is more pronounced under τ_f random fields than under γ random fields. The underlying mechanisms for the phenomenon of the critical SOF will be explored in this paper.     

Reliability analysis of piles in spatially varying soils considering multiple failure modes

In most limit state design codes, the serviceability limit checks for drilled shafts still use deterministic approaches. Moreover, different limit states are usually considered separately. This paper develops a probabilistic framework to assess the serviceability performance with the consideration of soil spatial variability in reliability analysis. Specifically, the performance of a drilled shaft is defined in terms of the vertical settlement, lateral deflection, and angular distortion at the top of the shaft, corresponding to three limit states in the reliability analysis. Failure is defined as the event that the displacements exceed the corresponding tolerable displacements. The spatial variability of soil properties is considered using random field modeling. To illustrate the proposed framework, this study assesses the reliability of each limit state and the system reliability of a numerical example of a drilled shaft. The results show the system reliability should be considered for the serviceability performance. The importance measures of the random variables indicate that the external loads, the performance criteria, the model errors of load transfer curves and soil strength parameter are the most important factors in reliability analysis. Moreover, it is shown that the correlation length and coefficient of variation of soil strength can exert significant impacts on the calculated failure probability.     

基于腹地划分的中国城市群空间影响范围识别

城市群空间影响范围的界定是认清城市群内中心城市与腹地、城市与城市间相互关联的基础。采用主成分分析法计算中国287个地级及以上城市的结节性指数,利用累积耗费距离法和k阶数据场,综合测度了交通可达性与空间场能,根据场强"取大"原则对城市腹地进行了划分,依据城市腹地范围界定了城市群的空间影响范围。结果表明:①中国地级以上城市最大和最小结节性指数相差157.53倍,城市平均可达时间为193.43 min,场能平均值为5 412,最大和最小城市腹地相差3 751倍;②23个城市群中,空间影响范围最大的是北疆城市群,空间平均场强最大的是中原城市群;③城市群在空间上呈现为发育程度不同的"11+9+3"的分布格局和逆时针90°旋转的"β"型城市群连绵带发展格局;④基于腹地划分的城市群空间影响范围充分考虑了现实的交通网络和地形地貌特点,实现了对广域空间范围内城市腹地范围和城市群空间影响范围的定量测度。     

Bayesian area-to-point kriging using expert knowledge as informative priors

Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example. The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.     

Chemical and physical properties affecting strontium distribution coefficients of surficial-sediment samples at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

 The U.S. Geological Survey and Idaho State University, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, conducted a study to determine strontium distribution coefficients (K_ds) of surficial sediments at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Batch experiments using synthesized aqueous solutions were used to determine K_ds, which describe the distribution of a solute between the solution and solid phase, of 20 surficial-sediment samples from the INEEL. The K_ds for the 20 surficial-sediment samples ranged from 36 to 275 ml/g. Many properties of both the synthesized aqueous solutions and sediments used in the experiments also were determined. Solution properties determined were initial and equilibrium concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and strontium, pH and specific conductance, and initial concentrations of potassium and sodium. Sediment properties determined were grain-size distribution, bulk mineralogy, whole-rock major-oxide and strontium and barium concentrations, and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area. Solution and sediment properties were correlated with strontium K_ds of the 20 surficial sediments using Pearson correlation coefficients. Solution properties with the strongest correlations with strontium K_ds were equilibrium pH and equilibrium calcium concentration correlation coefficients, 0.6598 and –0.6518, respectively. Sediment properties with the strongest correlations with strontium K_ds were manganese oxide (MnO), BET surface area, and the >4.75-mm-grain-size fraction correlation coefficients, 0.7054, 0.7022, and –0.6660, respectively. Effects of solution properties on strontium K_ds were interpreted as being due to competition among similarly charged and sized cations in solution for strontium-sorption sites; effects of sediment properties on strontium K_ds were interpreted as being surface-area related. Multivariate analyses of these solution and sediment properties resulted in r² values of 0.8071 when all five properties were used and 0.8043 when three properties, equilibrium pH, MnO, and BET surface area, were used. Received: 30 November 1998 · Accepted: 16 February 1999     

用雷达回波资料识别雹云的最新进展

本文评述了当前国内外利用雷达回波资料识别雹云的现状,着重介绍了笔者近年来利用雷达回波资料建立雹云识别模式的研究工作,并展望了雹云识别的未来发展前景。     

基于Oracle Spatial的多元重力场信息数据库的设计与应用

随着地球重力场信息多元化的发展及其应用领域越来越广,科学高效的管理和应用重力场信息数据就显得尤为重要。文中介绍了基于Oracle Spatial技术设计与构建的重力场信息数据库的结构框架,分析了存储数据信息的种类、属性及特点,研究了数据的存储方式。在多元化重力场数据与基础地图数据统一管理的基础上,初步实现了多元化重力场信息的存储、查询、计算、绘图及显示等功能。     

全球海洋人为碳储量估算及时空分布研究进展

海洋是全球最大的碳汇,确定海洋中人为碳含量及其时空变化是一件具有挑战性的工作。就当前海洋人为碳含量确定方法、人为碳储量及其随时间变化进行综述总结。研究表明海洋仍然可以吸收并储藏大量的人为碳,但未来对于海洋吸收储藏人为碳的研究仍具有诸多不确定性。已有证据表明稳态海洋的概念不完全正确,需要在非稳态条件下重新定义人为碳并开展研究。同时需要积累更多的观测数据,采用包括观测和模式模拟等手段来研究不同时间尺度的人为碳的吸收和储藏过程。