Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

Recent Developments in Marine Diamond Mining

The marine diamond deposits of southern Africa owe their existence to fluvial transport down the Orange River to the South Atlantic. On the coast, they were moved, sorted and concentrated by high-energy sea and wind conditions to create a veneer of diamondiferous gravels on the sea floor. Large scale, offshore production by De Beers Marine commenced in 1989 in Namibian waters. The company now acts as a contractor for Namdeb, a corporation owned jointly with the Namibian governments. Some junior public companies also produce diamonds by large-scale mechanized means and conduct extensive exploration programs. Two important developments have occurred recently. Firstly, equipment for the recovery of diamonds from the seabed has been successfully borrowed from other industries. Large drills from onshore civil engineering have been modified for marine sampling and mining. Remotely controlled, seabed-mounted, excavational systems have assumed a major role. The new systems allow both evaluation sampling and subsequent mining to be undertaken by similar or the same equipment, making the results compatible. They permit highly selective extraction and enhanced recovery of the gravels from irregular bedrock in water approaching 200 m deep. But none is universally applicable offshore, each being the preferred system under different conditions. Secondly, the total output of sea diamonds from Namibian waters has increased to 0.8 million carats annually and now exceeds that from all the country's onshore sources. An industry has become established. Corporate and individual perseverence, government encouragement, new technology, shareholders' risk finance, and De Beers' diamond marketing have all played a role in the success. Future diamond production may increase as companies meet the challenge of working lower grade, higher volume deposits, which will require new approaches to the mining process. With a decrease in the physical risk of marine mining, the most variable inputs in operational planning and production forecasting are recovered grade and throughout rate, together with equipment availability. The importance of reliable grade estimation from sufficient sampling density is widely perceived, but the greatest performance risk can involve the predicted excavation rate and ''mineability'' of the seabed sediments. Published reserve statements would benefit from a requirement to specify the planned mining method, the consequent cutoff grade to be employed, and whether or not test mining has been undertaken.     

Impacts of a bottom trawling exclusion zone on Snow Crab abundance and fish harvester behavior in the Labrador Sea, Canada

The Hawke Box trawling exclusion zone off southern Labrador is a 8610 km² closed area implemented in 2003 to protect soft-shelled pre-recruit Snow Crab and juvenile cod from mortality imposed by shrimp trawling and other bottom-impact fisheries. This study utilizes survey, logbook, and observer data from the Snow Crab and Northern Shrimp fisheries to assess the effectiveness of the Hawke Box in protecting and possibly enhancing the Snow Crab resource off southern Labrador. The results indicate that the exclusion zone has failed to protect pre-recruit crabs largely due to a redistribution and intensification of directed Snow Crab effort inside the Box in the years following closure. This unexpected outcome resulted in a high level of fishery-induced mortality to pre-recruit crabs and masked any potential positive outcomes from the cessation of trawling. The shortcomings that contributed to the failure of this exclusion area are discussed in relation to the current state of knowledge on the effectiveness of marine protected areas in general as management tools for conserving aquatic resources.     

Fishers' perceptions as indicators of the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

How users perceive the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is fundamental for the social acceptance of these zones. Moreover, their perceptions may be relevant for monitoring the effects of MPAs on extractive activities. This study analyzes artisanal fishers' perceptions of the performance of a north-western Mediterranean coastal MPA, which encompasses two no-take zones (NTZs). Three viewpoints have been considered: the effect on the personal activity of fishers, the effect on the local fishery and the effect on the ecosystem. In order to test the hypothesis that biomass export (spillover) - which had previously been evidenced from the two NTZs - may influence fishers' perceptions of NTZ effects, fishers' perceptions were compared with both declared and observed fishing activity over an one-year period.The results show that negative perceptions of NTZs are either nil or are negligible. Most fishers are aware of the beneficial effects of NTZs on ecosystems and fisheries. However, they remain to be convinced of the beneficial effects of the NTZs on their own activity. For instance, the proximity of a NTZ appears never to be involved in the choice of a fishing spot. This partial lack of correspondence between scientific expectation and fishers' perceptions is discussed in the light of fishing habits in the zone adjacent to NTZs, and takes into account fishing grounds, targeted species and seniority (defined as the number of years the fisher has been fishing within the MPA). All three factors appear to influence fishers' perceptions. For example, having a positive perception about a NTZ and spending more time fishing in the adjacent zone are habits that can be associated with fishers with less seniority. Fishers' perceptions obviously indicate the social acceptance of the MPA and are an essential monitoring tool for MPA managers. However, perceptions cannot be seen as a substitute for scientific monitoring, as both approaches are clearly complementary.     

Methods of social assessment in Marine Protected Area planning: Is public participation enough?

Addressing social and economic considerations is crucial to the success of Marine Protected Area (MPA) planning and management. Ineffective social assessment can alienate local communities and undermine the success of existing and future MPAs. It is rare to critique the success of methods used currently to incorporate social and economic considerations into MPA planning. Three Australian MPA planning processes covering three states and incorporating federal and state jurisdictions are reviewed in order to determine how potential social impacts were assessed and considered. These case studies indicate that Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is under-developed in Australian MPA planning. Assessments rely heavily on public participation and economic modelling as surrogates for dedicated SIA and are followed commonly by attitudinal surveys to gauge public opinion on the MPA after its establishment. The emergence of issues around public perception of the value of MPAs indicates the failure of some of these proposals to adequately consider social factors in planning and management. This perception may have potential implications for the long term success of individual MPAs. It may also compromise Australia's ability to meet international commitments for MPA targets to gazette at least 10% of all its marine habitats as MPAs. Indeed, this is demonstrated in two of the three case studies where social and economic arguments against MPAs have been used to delay or block the future expansion of the MPA network.     

Ambivalent climate of opinions: Tensions and dilemmas in understanding geoengineering experimentation

Due to the fear of the consequences of climate change, many scientists today advocate the research into—but not deployment of—geoengineering, large-scale technological control of the global climate, to reduce the uncertainty around its efficacy and harms. Scientists propose in particular initiating field trials of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). This paper examines how the meanings of geoengineering experimentation, specifically SAI field trials, are reconfigured in the deliberation of the lay public. To this end, we conducted focus groups with Japanese citizens in June 2015 on the geoengineering concept and SAI field trials. Our main findings are as follows: the ‘climate emergency’ framing compelled the lay public to accept, either willingly or reluctantly, the need for ‘geoengineering research’; however, public discourse on SAI field trials was ambiguous and ambivalent, involving both tensions and dilemmas in understanding what the SAI field trial is for and about. Our results exhibit how the lay public wrestles with understanding the social, political, and ethical implications of SAI field trials in multiple dimensions, namely, accountability, controllability, predictability, and desirability. The paper argues that more clarity in the term ‘geoengineering research’ is needed to facilitate inclusive and pluralistic debates on geoengineering experimentation and not to preemptively arrive at a consensus that ‘we need more research.’ We conclude that ambivalence about both the pros and cons of geoengineering experimentation seems to be enduring; thus, instead of ignoring or repressing it, embracing ambivalence is required to keep the geoengineering debate democratic and inclusive.     

Stop FEMA Now: Social media,activism and the sacrificed citizen

In an era of late capitalism and climate crisis, an expanding, heterogeneous network of people find themselves precariously positioned at the edge of disaster. This paper explores how Stop FEMA Now, a coalition of U.S. flood disaster survivors and other coastal homeowners, used social media to challenge neoliberal policies that produced – and then privatized – environmental risk. I find that social media played a crucial and sometimes unexpected role in enabling activists to organize across difference and cohere around an identity that emphasized their multiple layers of vulnerability and responsibilization. Through images that reembedded natural disasters in their political and economic contexts, activists exposed their historic and ongoing abandonment by neoliberal policies and state failures. Ultimately, such abandonments forfeited coastal homeowners to a future marked by fiscal and climate crisis, constituting them as sacrificed citizens. And yet, I also propose that the struggles of sacrificed citizens offer new possibilities for coalitions and pluralisms.     

Charting the emergence of a ‘knowing system’ for climate change adaptation in Australian regional natural resource management

Climate change increases the complexity and uncertainty of regional natural resource management (NRM), calling into question the appropriateness of linear knowledge-transfer approaches. In this paper we reflect on knowledge practices among a partnership of researchers and NRM planners, under a federal program of NRM investment intended to ‘deliver information’ to regional NRM planners to support planning for climate change. We unpack ‘container’ and ‘conduit’ metaphors of linear, one-way communication invoked by the starting conditions, and explore whether more relational ways of communicating were achieved. A key theme emerged early in the research that NRM planners felt overwhelmed by the sheer volume of information available and discouraged by the irrelevance of much of it to their climate change planning. Our research-practice collaboration unfolded in this context and through ongoing face-to-face and virtual engagement over a period of two years. The collaborative approach featured joint identification of priority activities, co-design of planning approaches, and the iterative co-development of an online ‘information portal’, which acted as a boundary object. We report the emergence of a ‘knowing system’, resulting from these efforts to foster relationships and co-produce boundary objects in a particular geographic context. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of investing in the capacity of researchers and NRM practitioners to engage in collaborative research partnerships premised on the emergence of knowing systems.     

变形监测数据处理方法的对比分析

本文介绍了长江中下游水患区沉降监测工程概况,对研究变形监测点位稳定性的方法做了分析研究。主要内容包括:利用最近三年的洞庭湖周边地区的水准数据,依次采用稳健估计法,平均间隙法,单点位移分量法对所选水准基准点的稳定性作定量分析并进行比较得出相关结论。     

Using ESDA with social weights to analyze spatial and social patterns of preschool children's behavior

To study the development of spatial and social behavior of preschool children, micro-level spatiotemporal data were collected for the first time in both spatial and social context using a novel behavioral coding system. These unique behavioral data enable us to explore the group-level, dynamic, spatial, and social patterns of preschool children's playing behavior from a hybrid geographic and social perspective. In this research, GIS and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques are employed together to study group-level spatial and social behavior emerging from children's everyday activities and interactions. ESDA with social weights is proposed to explore spatial and social patterns of preschool children's behavior at the same time. The results highlight the utility of this approach for studying the relationships between preschool children's playing behavior and preschool's environmental settings and the relationships between preschool children's personal activities and the formation of their social network space.