Simulating regional grain yield distributions to support agricultural drought risk assessment

Most food insecure countries do not have long-term records of either agricultural drought or the impacts of agricultural drought on food security. This lack of data impedes famine early warning and crop insurance programs. One recent paper addresses this issue by using resampled rainfall data, a basic crop yield model, and linear regression to simulate distributions of grain yield. We expand on this process by incorporating flexible regression models and defining a set of criteria to test model performance. We also examine how well a model fit on national data can emulate yield distributions at regions within a country. We find that models with spatially varying coefficients are better able to simulate distributions than basic linear regression models. Generalized additive models also perform well but do not offer substantial improvement over varying coefficient models. We also find that simulated yield distributions are most accurate in higher producing regions that have lower within region diversity of yields.     

Environmental controls on food web regimes: A fluvial perspective

Because food web regimes control the biomass of primary producers (e.g., plants or algae), intermediate consumers (e.g., invertebrates), and large top predators (tuna, killer whales), they are of societal as well as academic interest. Some controls over food web regimes may be internal, but many are mediated by conditions or fluxes over large spatial scales. To understand locally observed changes in food webs, we must learn more about how environmental gradients and boundaries affect the fluxes of energy, materials, or organisms through landscapes or seascapes that influence local species interactions. Marine biologists and oceanographers have overcome formidable challenges of fieldwork on the high seas to make remarkable progress towards this goal. In river drainage networks, we have opportunities to address similar questions at smaller spatial scales, in ecosystems with clear physical structure and organization. Despite these advantages, we still have much to learn about linkages between fluxes from watershed landscapes and local food webs in river networks. Longitudinal (downstream) gradients in productivity, disturbance regimes, and habitat structure exert strong effects on the organisms and energy sources of river food webs, but their effects on species interactions are just beginning to be explored. In fluid ecosystems with less obvious physical structure, like the open ocean, discerning features that control the movement of organisms and affect food web dynamics is even more challenging. In both habitats, new sensing, tracing and mapping technologies have revealed how landscape or seascape features (e.g., watershed divides, ocean fronts or circulation cells) channel, contain or concentrate organisms, energy and materials. Field experiments and direct in situ observations of basic natural history, however, remain as vital as ever in interpreting the responses of biota to these features. We need field data that quantify the many spatial and temporal scales of functional relationships that link environments, fluxes and food web interactions to understand how they will respond to intensifying anthropogenic forcing over the coming decades.     

Environmental drivers of megafaunal assemblage composition and biomass distribution over mainland and insular slopes of the Balearic Basin (Western Mediterranean)

The influence of mesoscale physical and trophic variables on deep-sea megafauna, a scale of variation often neglected in deep-sea studies, is crucial for understanding their role in the ecosystem. Drivers of megafaunal assemblage composition and biomass distribution have been investigated in two contrasting areas of the Balearic basin in the NW Mediterranean: on the mainland slope (Catalonian coasts) and on the insular slope (North of Mallorca, Balearic Islands). An experimental bottom trawl survey was carried out during summer 2010, at stations in both sub-areas located between 450 and 2200 m water depth. Environmental data were collected simultaneously: near-bottom physical parameters, and the elemental and isotopic composition of sediments. Initially, data were analysed along the whole depth gradient, and then assemblages from the two areas were compared. Analysis of the trawls showed the existence of one group associated with the upper slope (US=450–690 m), another with the middle slope (MS=1000–1300 m) and a third with the lower slope (LS=1400–2200 m). Also, significant differences in the assemblage composition were found between mainland and insular slopes at MS. Dominance by different species was evident when the two areas were compared by SIMPER analysis. The greatest fish biomass was recorded in both areas at 1000–1300 m, a zone linked to minimum temperature and maximum O₂ concentration on the bottom. Near the mainland, fish assemblages were best explained (43% of total variance, DISTLM analysis) by prey availability (gelatinous zooplankton biomass). On the insular slope, trophic webs seemed less complex and were based on vertical input of surface primary production. Decapods, which reached their highest biomass values on the upper slope, were correlated with salinity and temperature in both the areas. However, while hydrographic conditions (temperature and salinity) seemed to be the most important variables over the insular slope, resource availability (gelatinous zooplankton and Calocaris macandreae) predominated and explained 59% of decapod assemblage variation over the mainland slope. Both fish and decapods were linked to net primary production recorded over the mainland 3 months before sampling, while the delay between the input of food from the surface and fish abundance was only 1 month on the insular slope. Our results suggest that trophic relationships over insular slopes probably involve a shorter food chain than over mainland slopes and one that is likely more efficient in terms of energy transfer.     

Food,Morality and Identity: mobility,remittances and the translocal community in Paama,Vanuatu

Migration and remittances characterise many small Pacific islands, where local livelihoods are limited, and the need for money has increased. A majority of Paamese have left the island of Paama, in the central island chain of Vanuatu, and more now live in the capital city, Port Vila, than on Paama. Remittances are bidirectional, between the island and Vila, a duality that has rarely been discussed in Melanesia. Almost every household on Paama and in Vila is involved in sending and receiving remittances. Remittances usually involve food: ‘modern’ foods (such as rice) flowing from Vila, and island foods (yams and laplap) travelling to Vila. While such transfers make little formal economic sense, they emphasise a constant process of negotiating and manipulating social relationships. Food, as an expression of identity and locality, is a powerful and repetitive reminder of moral obligations and rural–urban kinship connections. The material significance of exchange is thus less than its affective significance, within the field of reciprocity that structures kin relationships. Food and remittances have become metaphors for defining the experience of migration, as their meaning and function are more than to merely provide a source of nutrition. They have also become the means of structuring a translocal moral economy.     

A comparison of raster-based travel time surfaces against vector-based network calculations as applied in the study of rural food deserts

While the term food insecurity is gaining popularity in contemporary literature, there is debate as to how tenets of this phenomenon can be quantitatively measured. One of these tenets, proximity to food resources, which is used to measure food deserts, can be measured within a digital GIS (Geographic Information System). Metrics such as Euclidean and network distance represent planimetric distance measurements between locations and resources, but do not truly represent the empirical cost that serves as a barrier, most notably time and/or money, to those who must decide to travel to these resources. While the vector data model has been the standard by which these calculations are done within a GIS, raster-based travel time surfaces can serve as a faster, replicable and scalable alternative. However, little research has been done to test the efficacy of these surfaces and their alignment with vector-based network calculations. In this research, we developed two travel-time surfaces for a rural region in southeastern North Carolina. One represented travel times to grocery stores and while the other represented travel time to convenience stores. We found that the travel times derived from this surface were statistically consistent with vector-based counterparts for sample sizes at a 95% confidence. When utilized correctly using an appropriate scale and spatial resolution, these surfaces have the potential to be effective tools in the study of food deserts.     

Unreported fishing, hungry people and political turmoil: the recipe for a food security crisis in Madagascar?

Madagascar, the world's fourth largest island, is one of the world's poorest developing countries, and its people depend heavily on marine resources for subsistence and income. Exports of these resources and foreign fishing access agreements are also important, at least from a large-scale economic perspective. In recent years, concerns have been voiced amongst local fishers and industry groups regarding the growth of the country's fishing effort. Despite these concerns, existing knowledge of the scale, composition and trends of Malagasy fisheries remains poor, and there is negligible information regarding unreported catches and illegal fishing in Madagascar's waters. Small-scale fisheries, which are often substantial in developing countries such as Madagascar, are often unreported or underestimated. Unfortunately, fisheries legislations, management plans and foreign fishing access agreements are often influenced by these incomplete data, leading to serious over-estimations of resource availability. This also appears to be the situation in Madagascar, where the reconstruction of total catches by all Malagasy fisheries sectors conducted here showed that total catches between 1950 and 2008 were twice the volume reported by national fisheries agencies. Most importantly, much of the subsistence sector is missing from official statistics, and signs of decline have already been observed in several stocks, suggesting that current levels of catches are likely to be exceeding sustainable yields. This has profound implications for the economic and ecological sustainability of fisheries, as well as food security in a country where people rely heavily on the ocean for their daily protein needs and livelihoods.     

To be ethical or to be good? The impact of ‘Good Provider’ and moral norms on food waste decisions in two countries

One-third of all food produced in the world is lost or wasted, which has negative consequences for societies and the environment. Thus, curbing food waste is critical to securing human well-being and protecting the environment. This study examines the drivers of household food waste decisions by investigating the activation and deactivation of moral norms and introducing the concept of the ‘good provider’ in an augmented norm-activation model (NAM). A survey of 643 consumers in Australia and Singapore explores the ‘good provider’ norm as a driver of food waste behaviours in both cultures. For Australians, ‘good provider’ norms suppress intentions to avoid food waste, most likely to provide for the immediate family, which can be a motive that overrides moral concern about food waste in an individualistic culture. For Singaporeans, ‘good provider’ norms do not suppress food waste intentions, possibly due to the value placed on thrift by a long-term-oriented culture. The paper significantly extends the previous research on norms, culture and sustainable consumption and provides policy and practical implications for curbing food waste in different cultural contexts.     

Trade-offs between carbon,water, soil and food in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region from remotely sensed data

It is important to ensure the efficient supply of land ecosystem services when the competition for land is increasing. In this paper we simulated the ecosystem services function under two scenarios, including carbon sequestration, agricultural production, water and soil conservation, and analyzed the tradeoffs among these ecosystem services in Guanzhong-Tianshui region from 2000 to 2050. Then the productive efficiency of ecosystem services was assessed under two scenarios and compared their production possibility frontiers (PPFs). Through the simulation analysis of their optimum allocation, we also provide the scientific evidence to the development of ecosystem. The natural rules were revealed that if these trade-offs emphasize the potential to sequester carbon in the landscape, along with very little loss of agricultural production, much more water is used. It could be identified to adhere to combine the exploitation and utilization, remediation and protection for land to promote the effective circulation of land eco-system, and meet the society’s preferences for land ecosystem service function by adjusting the use of multiple eco-services.     

青岛文昌鱼的实验室培育──饵料和沙对幼虫成活的影响

于1991年6月-1992年12月对青岛文昌鱼进行室内培育研究。结果表明：1．沙是青岛文昌鱼幼虫生长发育必需的，但在实验室条件下，细沙比全沙和粗沙更有利于其生存。2．就单胞藻而言，等鞭金藻是青岛文昌鱼幼虫生长和变态较理想的饵料。     

《中华人民共和国渔业法修订草案（征求意见稿）》对渔获物可追溯制度的构建

近来日本核污染水排放计划及其实施使渔获物可追溯制度举世瞩目,虽然普遍性的国际条约短期内难以达成,但各具特色的国别渔获物可追溯制度竞相出现。《中华人民共和国渔业法修订草案（征求意见稿）》虽然提出“渔获物可追溯制度”,但未明确其定义、范围、违法责任和执行机制。作为渔获物进出口大国,渔获物可追溯制度对于我国打击IUU捕捞、保障渔业对外贸易和食品安全具有重要意义。文章基于我国类似制度安排和实践经验,参考国际上有关制度的相关规定,提出并论证渔获物可追溯制度的实质要素及最优立法模式,以此推进规则的全国统一和国际化进程。