Evolution of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy

In the present paper the morphodynamics of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy, is analysed by comparing data gathered during two different surveys carried out in 1991 and 2001, respectively. In particular, a morphometric analysis on the most recent data and a qualitative analysis of the differences between bottom bedform patterns, are carried out. At locations characterised by greater depths, only minor changes to the planimetric configuration of the field, i.e. crest orientation (which is seen to be orthogonal to the direction of net gross sand transport) and wave length are observed, while differences in wave length and crest direction are more evident in more shallow areas. On the other hand, wave height has significantly increased in the whole field. A possible explanation of such a change, based on the previsions of a theory which relates sand-wave growth and migration to the main components of the tidal ellipse, is provided.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究

本文假设地震的发生与时间的关系遵循稳态泊松模型,假设地震震级M服从参数为1/β的指数分布,其中β=b/loge,在此基础上生成地震目录.用最小二乘法估算b值,分别从样本数量、震级间隔、震级误差三方面分析b值误差的大小.统计分析结果表明,b值的标准偏差随着样本数量的增多而减小;随着震级间隔的增大而减小;震级误差使b值的标准误差变大.本文可以为利用真实地震目录求b值时选择适当的方法提供参考.     

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mitigating the effects of sand dunes on seismic data from the Rub al Khali basin,Saudi Arabia

The Rub Al Khali region in Saudi Arabia is characterized by the presence of sand dunes separated by salt flats, also called Sabkhas. In general, the elevation of dunes in this region varies between 90 and 250 m above sea level. The presence of these sand dunes, along with the rapidly changing surface topography poses challenges for seismic data acquisition and processing. The high contrast in acoustic impedance between the dune base and the underlying formation often results in amplification of seismic waves that are recorded at stations located on the surface of sand dunes. Attempts to address the issue using conventional surface-consistent amplitude scaling methods without reducing these amplification effects generally fail, thus compromising the suitability of the processed data for amplitude versus offset analysis. In this study, we propose a new reference site technique to reduce the effects of sand dune amplification, enabling the production of data sets that are suitable for amplitude versus offset processing. The proposed technique uses a deterministic approach to derive surface-consistent, frequency-dependent de-amplification functions for shots and stations located on the dunes only. Two-dimensional synthetic and field data examples show that the technique significantly reduces the effects of sand dune amplification.     

汶川地震滑坡危险性评价——以武都区和文县为例

利用GIS技术详细研究汶川地震在甘肃省陇南市武都区和文县触发的滑坡地质灾害的分布规律及其与地震烈度、地形坡度、断层、高程、地层岩性的相关关系,采用基于GIS的加权信息量模型的崩塌滑坡危险性评价方法,对研究区的地震滑坡危险性进行学科分析。结果表明：极高危险区在高程上主要分布在集水高程区,高度危险区主要沿白水江、白龙江等主干河流两侧极高易发区的边界向两侧扩展,轻度和极轻度危险区面积占比较小,主要分布在低烈度、活动断裂不发育、人类活动微弱的高海拔地区,另外国道G215沿极高危险性区域分布明显;利用危险性等级分区结果统计人口公里格网数据,得到武都区和文县潜在影响人口,发现研究区约78万人将受到地震滑坡灾害的潜在影响。     

Pyroclastic flows and surges over water: an example from the 1883 Krakatau eruption

Pyroclastic deposits from the 1883 eruption of Krakatau are described from areas northeast of the volcano on the islands of Sebesi, Sebuku, and Lagoendi, and the southeast coast of Sumatra. Massive and poorly stratified units formed predominantly from pyroclastic flows and surges that traveled over the sea for distances up to 80 km. Granulometric and lithologic characteristics of the deposits indicate that they represent the complement of proximal subaerial and submarine pyroclastic flow deposits laid down on and close to the Krakatau islands. The distal deposits exhibit a decrease in sorting coefficient, median grain size, and thickness with increasing distance from Krakatau. Crystal fractionation is consistent with the distal facies being derived from the upper part of gravitationally segregated pyroclastic flows in which the relative amount of crystal enrichment and abundance of dense lithic clasts diminished upwards. The deposits are correlated to a major pyroclastic flow phase that occurred on the morning of 27 August at approximately 10 a.m. Energetic flows spread out away from the volcano at speeds in excess of 100 km/h and traveled up to 80 km from source. The flows retained temperatures high enough to burn victims on the SW coast of Sumatra. Historical accounts from ships in the Sunda Straits constrain the area affected by the flows to a minimum of 4x10³ km². At the distal edge of this area the flows were relatively dilute and turbulent, yet carried enough material to deposit several tens of centimeters of tephra. The great mobility of the Krakatau flows from the 10 a.m. activity may be the result of enhanced runout over the sea. It is proposed that the generation of steam at the flow/seawater interface may have led to a reduction in the sedimentation of particles and consequently a delay in the time before the flows ceased lateral motion and became buoyantly convective. The buoyant distal edge of these ash-and steam-laden clouds lifted off into the atmosphere, leading to cooling, condensation, and mud rain.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为2700个单元,对地质灾害进行现状评价,并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加,编制了全国地质现状等值线图,在现状评价基础上,对地质灾害进行趋势预测,将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素,运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判,编制了1:600万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

Burial and scour around short cylinder under progressive shoaling waves

The results of a laboratory experimental program aimed at better understanding the scour around and burial of heavy cylindrical objects under oscillating flow on a sandy bed are described. This study was motivated by its application to the dynamics of isolated cobbles/mines on a sandy floor under nonlinear progressive waves, such as that occur in shallow coastal waters beyond the wave-breaking region. In the experiments, nonlinear progressive waves were generated in a long wave tank of rectangular cross-section with a bottom slope. Model mines (short cylinders) were placed on the sandy bottom and the temporal evolution of the bed profile and the velocity field in the near field of the object were observed. Experiments were conducted at relatively high Reynolds numbers for a range of flow conditions, which can be characterized by the Keulegan–Carpenter number and Shields parameter. Depending on the values of these parameters, four different scour regimes around the cylinder including periodical burial of cylinder under migrating sand ripples were observed; they were classified as: (i) no scour/burial, (ii) initial scour, (iii) expanded scour, and (iv) periodic burial cases. A scour regime diagram was developed and the demarcation criteria between different regimes were deduced. Semi-empirical formulae that permit estimation of the scour depth with time, the equilibrium maximum scour depth and length, and conditions necessary for the burial of the cylinder as a function of main external parameters are also proposed.     

Impact of mega-scale sand extraction on tidal dynamics in semi-enclosed basins: An idealized model study with application to the Southern North Sea

Long-term considerations of repeated and increasing sand extraction on the Netherlands Continental Shelf (North Sea) may lead to the creation of a mega-scale extraction trench in front of the Dutch coast (length hundreds of km, width over 10 km, depth several m). We investigate the impact of such a huge topographic intervention on tidal dynamics, which is a key aspect in hydrodynamics, and indirectly also affecting morphodynamics and ecology.     

我国海洋动力灾害研究进展与展望

海洋动力灾害(包括灾害性海浪、风暴潮、海冰、海啸等)是对我国沿海地区造成破坏和损失最大的自然灾害之一。开展海洋动力灾害研究具有重要意义和迫切的国家需求。本文回顾我国建国以来在海洋动力灾害研究方向的主要进展,重点针对近年来我国在海洋动力灾害数值模拟预报以及灾害风险评估等方面的进展进行综述,并在此基础上提出未来的发展展望,希望给海洋防灾减灾科研工作者提供参考。