A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE QUALITY CONTROL METHOD FOR GUANGDONG GPS/PWV DATA AND ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN ITS ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor (GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system. In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases (on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control, only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.     

刺激隐核虫甘油醛-3-磷酸脱氢酶的分子特征

从刺激隐核虫(Cryptocaryon irritans)滋养体/包囊前体c DNA文库中筛选出了甘油醛-3-磷酸脱氢酶基因(Ci GAPDH),定点诱变Ci GAPDH基因开放阅读框内的非通用密码子后,构建其原核表达载体p GEX-4T-3/Ci GAPDH,转化到大肠杆菌BL21(DE3)中,用异丙基硫式-B-D-半乳糖苷诱导表达,结果大肠杆菌成功表达了r Ci GAPDH蛋白。用抗r Ci GAPDH蛋白的鼠血清进行免疫印迹分析,结果抗血清能够识别刺激隐核虫各期虫体的天然Ci GAPDH蛋白,其表观分子质量为37.3 ku,与根据氨基酸序列推算的理论值相符;实验表明r Ci GAPDH蛋白具有很好的免疫原性,而且Ci GAPDH在生活史的各阶段均有表达,符合持家基因的特征。利用间接免疫荧光抗体实验(IFAT)检测天然Ci GAPDH蛋白在刺激隐核虫幼虫上的定位,结果表明天然Ci GAPDH蛋白主要分布在幼虫的细胞质内,且在胞口位置分布最多。对Ci GAPDH的进一步研究可能为刺激隐核虫感染的药物靶点的寻找多条线索。     

高、低阶煤润湿性对甲烷吸附/解吸的影响

为研究不同煤阶煤体润湿性对煤层气吸附/解吸的影响,采集寺河煤矿3号煤与大佛寺煤矿4号煤样品进行接触角测量及吸附/解吸实验,通过热力学计算分析等量吸附热特征。结果表明,大佛寺4号煤水润湿性远好于寺河3号煤,原因在于大佛寺4号煤为低变质长焰煤,其所含羧基、羟基等含氧官能团数量较多,同时具有物质组分亲水性好及孔裂隙较发育的优势。煤体润湿性影响煤自身含水率大小,间接影响煤层气吸附/解吸特征。大佛寺4号煤与寺河3号煤润湿性、含水率、解吸率及采收率间关系复杂,受临界含水量制约,存在温度临界点。等量吸附热对比发现煤体亲水性不利于煤层气的吸附。煤层气吸附放热远小于解吸吸热,存在解吸滞后,且解吸滞后程度随着吸附/解吸量增加而逐渐减弱,低阶煤的减弱趋势更加明显。      

Geo3DML与GOCAD数据模型与转换研究

三维地质模型数据交换格式Geo3DML已在一定范围进行试用,其制定解决了我国目前三维地质模型数据格式繁多、交换困难的问题,极大地方便了三维地质模型数据的管理与共享。GOCAD是国际上公认的主流建模软件,在地质工程、地球物理勘探、矿业开发、水利工程中有广泛的应用,被众多石油公司和服务公司等用户广泛认可。通过对Geo3DML标准格式和GOCAD数据格式进行对比分析研究,实现了基于Geo3DML标准的三维地质模型数据与GOCAD三维地质模型数据的相互转换,对于进一步实现三维地质模型数据的共享和集成管理具有重要意义。     

荔湾3-1气田管线路由海底峡谷段斜坡稳定性分析

针对南海荔湾3-1气田管线穿过的海底峡谷区6个典型斜坡剖面,分别采用有限元强度折减法和极限平衡法开展斜坡稳定性分析,模型考虑了土层强度随深度的变化。计算结果对比表明,有限元强度折减法与极限平衡法分析结果一致,其中与Spencer法结果最接近,稳定系数相对误差小于3.5%。重力作用下各斜坡基本处于相对稳定状态,峡谷中下部土强度较低且坡度较高的局部区域接近临界状态,峡谷头部因坡度相对较小且土体强度相对较大,其斜坡稳定系数相对较高。地震水平加速度能够明显降低该区斜坡的稳定系数,且随着加速度值的增大滑动深度逐渐变大。当水平加速度达到0.2g时峡谷中下部区域大部分会发生滑动。海底地形坡度和土层强度是影响峡谷区斜坡稳定性的主要因素,且稳定系数与滑动面对局部坡度和强度分布较为敏感,合理的稳定性评价依赖于精确的地形数据与土层力学参数。     

荔湾3-1组块浮托安装实船监测与数值模拟

目前海洋平台日趋集成化、模块化,重量和体积都逐渐增大,使得适合安装大型组块的浮托安装法得到飞速发展。介绍荔湾3-1大型导管架平台浮托安装中使用的实测技术,对驳船的运动监测和海洋环境监测等测量数据进行分析,分析结果被应用于指导整个浮托安装过程,保证浮托安装符合安全施工标准。对浮托安装载荷转移阶段采用数值计算方法进行作业过程模拟,将计算结果与实测结果进行对比分析,两者具有较好的相似性。     

A3航摄仪在海岛海岸带测绘中的应用研究

基于广州及深圳海岛海岸带区域的1∶2 000航空摄影测量项目,对比分析A3航摄仪在有、无地面像控点情况下的空中三角测量精度。结果表明,在无地面像控点的情况下,A3仍可满足海岛海岸带区域大比例尺成图的精度要求,且航摄效率高、成图周期短。本研究可为A3在海岛海岸带区域的应用提供参考。     

Analyses and forecasts of a tornadic supercell outbreak using a 3DVAR system ensemble

As part of NOAA’s "Warn-On-Forecast" initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then evaluated using retrospective short-range ensemble analyses and probabilistic forecasts of the tornadic supercell outbreak event that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma, USA. A 36-member multi-physics ensemble system provided the initial and boundary conditions for a 3-km convective-scale ensemble system. Radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four WSR-88 Ds were assimilated into the ensemble using the ARPS 3DVAR technique. Five data assimilation and forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the system to data assimilation frequencies, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and fixed- and mixed-microphysics ensembles. The results indicated that the experiment with 5-min assimilation frequency quickly built up the storm and produced a more accurate analysis compared with the 10-min assimilation frequency experiment. The predicted vertical vorticity from the moist-adiabatic in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme was larger in magnitude than that from the latent heat scheme. Cycled data assimilation yielded good forecasts, where the ensemble probability of high vertical vorticity matched reasonably well with the observed tornado damage path. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the 3DVAR analysis and forecast system can provide reasonable forecasts of tornadic supercell storms.     

V-3θ图与沙尘大风天气预测分析

依据欧阳首承的理论和天气学原理,利用V-3θ图中的信息,文章以酒泉站为例,将该图中一些信息数字化,图中的信息针对大风天气做多元线性回归分析,并得出逐步回归方程,结果表明,沙尘大风的发生与V-3θ图中800h Pa湿度、700h Pa风速、不稳定层结的起点、厚度以及滚流相关性明显,依据此方程进行检验预报,效果良好。     

3S技术在突发地质灾害应急管理中的应用

针对传统灾害应急管理中存在重灾后应急处置、轻灾前应急管理的问题,提出了一种基于3S技术的突发地质灾害应急管理方法。将3S技术与突发地质灾害应急管理过程进行了深度融合,深入分析了3S技术在突发地质灾害应急管理中的作用,主要包括突发地质灾害时空数据获取与管理、空间信息二三维可视化表达、应急监测与评估、空间分析等方面。并在此基础上,基于MapGIS K9平台设计并实现了突发地质灾害应急管理原型系统,为突发地质灾害应急信息化相关应用系统提供原型支撑。