能源环境研究的理论、方法及其主要进展

能源充足和环境清洁是保障国家能源安全、实现可持续发展的重要保证, 能源环境研究对 于中国具有独特的现实意义。能源环境是不同种类能源在不同状态、利用方式和区域尺度下对环 境影响的形式、程度及其相互关系的总和, 可以用“能源环境立方体”分析框架中能源种类、生命 周期、区域尺度三个纬度来分析。目前能源环境研究的主要方向包括不同能源的环境影响研究、 化石燃料能源开发利用环境影响研究、农村能源对生态环境和健康的影响研究等方面, 还与能源 经济、能源技术、能源政策等领域的研究紧密相连。本文在系统总结能源环境研究的基本内涵、分 析框架和理论基础, 以及能源环境领域常用的模型和方法的基础上, 对国内外学者在该领域的研 究进展进行了详细述评, 提出了未来能源环境研究的主要趋势和展望。     

LISEM: A SINGLE-EVENT,PHYSICALLY BASED HYDROLOGICAL AND SOIL EROSION MODEL FOR DRAINAGE BASINS. II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,VALIDATION AND APPLICATION

A new hydrological and soil erosion model has been developed and tested: LISEM, the Limburg soil erosion model. The model uses physically based equations to describe interception, infiltration and soil water transport, storage in surface depressions, splash and flow detachment, transport capacity and overland and channel flow. From the validation results it is clear that, although the model has several advantages over other models, the results of LISEM 1.0 are far from perfect. Based on the sensitivity analysis and field observations, the main reasons for these differences seems to be the spatial and temporal variability of the soil hydraulic conductivity and the initial pressure head at the basin scale. Another reason for the differences between measured and simulated results is our lack or understanding of the theory of hydrological and soil erosion processes.     

A methodology for defining seismic scenario‐structure‐based limit state criteria for rc high‐rise wall buildings using net drift

As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。     

Spatiotemporal variations of aridity index over the Belt and Road region under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Aridity index reflects the exchanges of energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere, and its variation can be used to forecast drought and flood...     

Study on forecast scenarios for simulation of future urban growth in Shenyang City based on SLEUTH model

The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988-2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was pro-jected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and ur-ban planning sce...     

Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.     

Rigid‐plastic seismic design of reinforced concrete structures

In this paper a new seismic design procedure for Reinforced Concrete (R/C) structures is proposed—the Rigid‐Plastic Seismic Design (RPSD) method. This is a design procedure based on Non‐Linear Time‐ History Analysis (NLTHA) for systems expected to perform in the non‐linear range during a lifetime earthquake event. The theoretical background is the Theory of Plasticity (Rigid‐Plastic Structures). Firstly, a collapse mechanism is chosen and the corresponding stress field is made safe outside the regions where plastic behaviour takes place. It is shown that this allows the determination of the required structural strength with respect to a pre‐defined performance parameter using a rigid‐plastic response spectrum, which is characteristic of the ground motion alone. The maximum strength demand at any point is solely dependent on the intensity of the ground motion, which facilitates the task of distributing required strength throughout the structure. Any artificial considerations intended to adjust results according to empirical observations are avoided, which, from a conceptual point of view, is considered to be an advantage over other simplified design procedures for seismic design. The procedure is formulated using a step‐by‐step format followed by a design example of a 4‐storey‐R/C‐plane‐frame. Results are compared with refined NLTHA and found to be extremely encouraging. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.     

GCM STUDIES ON ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA*

Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.