基于1985—2010年历史资料的山东省台风灾害风险评估

基于对1985—2010年间的多种历史资料和数据分析,对山东省成灾台风进行了灾害风险评估。为减少不同时期社会经济发展水平对灾害损失评估结果的影响,用标准化方法分析评估了各年的灾害损失。采用模糊数学的方法建立了综合定量指标,利用所建立的指标综合地考察了台风灾害的影响。在分析各致灾因子的作用时,将台风灾情与人文、社会要素相结合,并利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台进行了综合分析。评估结果表明,标准化的台风灾害损失情况呈逐年下降趋势,并呈现地域差异,具有明显的时空分布特征。本文研究结果可望为山东省沿海地区台风灾害的防灾减灾工作提供参考。     

Residential energy consumption and associated carbon emission in forest rural area in China: A case study in Weichang County

Rural energy consumption in China has increased dramatically in the last decades, and has become a significant contributor of carbon emissions. Yet there is limited data on energy consumption patterns and their evolution in forest rural areas of China. In order to bridge this gap, we report the findings of field surveys in forest villages in Weichang County as a case study of rural energy consumption in northern China. We found that the residential energy consumption per household is 3313 kgce yr-1(kilogram standard coal equivalent per year), with energy content of 9.7 × 107 kJ yr-1, including 1783 kgce yr-1 from coal, 1386 kgce yr-1 from fuel wood, 96 kgce yr-1 from electricity, and 49 kgce yr-1 from LPG. Per capita consumption is 909 kgce yr-1 and its energy content is 2.7 × 107 kJ yr-1. Due to a total energy utilization efficiency of 24.6%, all the consumed energy can only supply about 2.4 × 107 kJ yr-1 of efficient energy content. Secondly, household energy consumption is partitioned into 2614 kgce yr-1 for heating, 616 kgce yr-1 for cooking, and 117 kgce yr-1 for home appliances. Thirdly, the associated carbon emissions per household are 2556 kgC yr-1, including1022 kgC yr-1 from unutilized fuel wood(90% of the total fuel wood). The rest of emissions come from the use of electricity(212 kgC yr-1), coal(1301 kgC yr-1) and LPG(21 kgC yr-1). Fourthly, local climate, family size and household income have strong influences on rural residential energy consumption. Changes in storage and utilization practices of fuel can lead to the 10%-30% increase in the efficiency of fuel wood use, leading to reduced energy consumption by 924 kgce yr-1 per household(27.9% reduction) and 901 kgC yr-1 of carbon emissions(35.3% reduction).     

青岛市崂山区农村集体土地所有权确权登记工作初探

开展农村集体土地所有权确权登记发证工作,是为了进一步确定土地所有权,维护农民集体合法权益,促进农村社区和谐稳定的现实需要。该文在结合崂山区农村集体土地所有权确权登记发证工作的基础上,介绍了崂山区集体所有权用地的现状,指出了当前存在的问题,提出了加强组织领导和技术指导、广泛宣传、加强争议调处、加强已有成果的应用、强化督查的对策建议。     

Poverty and HIV prevalence in Ghana: a geographical perspective

There is a widespread belief that poverty leads to the spread of HIV/AIDS. However, intra-country comparisons of the phenomenon have been limited. This study seeks to fill this gap by examining the relationship between poverty and HIV prevalence amongst the 10 administrative regions of Ghana. Based on the available data for poverty and HIV, certain distinct patterns emerge. For example, poverty levels are the highest in the three northern regions (Upper East, Upper West and Northern region) even though their HIV prevalence is one of the lowest. It clearly follows that there are more complex forces at work than just the effects of poverty alone. To unravel some of these puzzles, the paper proposes a key role for culture, globalization and geographical accessibility. In addition, it is suggested that local level studies in a multivariate framework have much to contribute to the identification and quantification of relevant relationships.     

Making the countryside more like the countryside? Rural planning and metropolitan visions in post-quake Chengdu

In 2008, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck southwest China less than 100 km north of Chengdu, the booming capital of Sichuan Province. The city government undertook a massive reconstruction project in its rural hinterlands that was guided by existing policies to develop rural areas through coordinated urban and rural planning. Planners sought to avoid replicating urban settlements in rural areas by developing recognizably “pastoral” villages, an approach that is being widely echoed in the relatively new discipline of rural spatial planning in China. This paper argues that such design concessions evade the key feature of the new villages: the concentration of rural residents. The Chengdu government, though this symbolic and actual de-peopling of rural landscapes, has recast rural space as an environmental amenity and an abstract stock of arable land. Drawing on interviews, site visits, and policy and media documents, the paper analyzes the metropolitan plans that provided the framework for rural reconstruction in post-quake Chengdu, and connects these to a model village site in Chengdu’s rural periphery. The case illustrates the need to understand site-level village planning in the context of regional political economies of land, and highlights the new role that metropolitan governments are playing in rural development strategies.     

甘肃沙尘暴短期、短时业务化预报方法研究

利用1955~2002年甘肃省80个站的观测资料，对发生在甘肃境内的64个强或特强沙尘暴个例逐个进行了天气气候分析，总结了甘肃沙尘暴天气气候特点，沙尘暴爆发的天气类型，移动路径。得出沙尘暴短期和临近预报的着眼点，建立了甘肃沙尘暴短期预报概念模型。通过用计算机语言和模块化设计方案，成功设计了中国西北地区沙尘暴监测预警人机交互预报平台，实现了沙尘暴监测预警预报业务化。     

山东省农村土地综合整治中权属管理问题研究

在农村土地整治工作中,土地权属管理是保护权利人合法权益、保证农村土地整治顺利进行的基础。因此,理顺土地权属关系、加强农村土地整治权属管理至为重要。该文对山东省66个土地综合整治项目和2006-2011年城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目涉及的土地权属管理工作进行了调研,全面分析了土地权属管理现状,结合工作中存在的问题,提出了相应的对策建议,以期为今后土地整治权属管理方面的深入研究起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

西藏农牧区民居工程特征分析

根据西藏地理、气候特征,结合农牧民生产、生活习俗,分析了农牧区民居的结构类型、抗震能力及存在的问题,提出了相应的措施。     

基于全域土地综合整治的乡村空间治理——以山东省淄博市沂源县流水片区为例

乡村空间治理是国土空间治理的重要组成部分，全域土地综合整治是实施乡村空间治理的重要手段。乡村空间治理从要素上是对山水林田湖草等自然资源要素的治理，从功能空间上是对生态空间、生产空间和生活空间的治理。以山东省沂源县流水片区为例，探讨基于全域土地综合整治的乡村空间治理路径和方式。乡村生态空间治理，首先构建乡村生态空间网络，强化重要生态空间保护，注重山体、水系等生态空间修复；其次，优化产业发展布局，促进特色产业规模化发展；再次，优化村落空间结构形态、完善街巷空间组织、增加公共活动空间、营造温馨庭院空间，使得人们能够“望得见青山，看得见绿水，记得住乡愁”。     

元胞空间分区及其对GeoCA模型模拟精度的影响

采用双约束空间聚类方法对元胞空间进行分区,在此基础上对不同的分区分别求取元胞转换规则,从而提高 元胞自动机的模拟精度。以杭州市土地利用变化为例,采用本文提出的基于双约束空间聚类的分区元胞自动机模型对 研究区域2000年—2005年的土地利用变化进行模拟,并利用逐点对比法和Moran I指数对模拟结果进行精度评估。结果 表明：(1)采用双约束空间聚类算法对元胞空间进行分区,可以保证同一分区内的元胞既在空间上邻近,又具有相对一 致的非空间属性信息,分区效果较好;(2)与不分区元胞自动机模型和基于空间聚类的分区元胞自动机模型相比,双约 束空间聚类元胞自动机模型具有较高的模拟精度,尤其是在空间形态和整体结构上具有较好的模拟效果。