利用树轮重建九房山滑坡活动年份

理解地貌过程以及认识过去灾害发生的频率,是自然灾害风险评价的重要任务。树木年轮由于其具有定年准确、连续性强、分辨率高和易于复本等特点,近年来被用到恢复过去灾害发生的时间。随着滑坡、泥石流等山地地质灾害性事件发生频率的增加,地质灾害风险管理和评价受到了越来越多的关注。在样品量足够的前提下,树木年轮方法可以精确地确定滑坡事件发生的年份。以甘肃南部武都区外纳乡的九房山滑坡为研究对象,利用树木年轮分析方法对该滑坡的灾害事件发生的时间进行了初步的研究。结果显示:1.树木年轮样品在1980—1982年,1984—1987年以及1991-1993年都出现了年轮宽度迅速减小或者迅速增加的现象。本研究将1980—1982年,1984—1987年以及1991—1993年定为滑坡活动年份,其中1992年和1993年的滑坡与当地记载的滑坡年份一致。强降水,地震影响以及不合理的灌溉活动都可能导致滑坡的复活,但降雨仍是导致九房山滑坡复活的重要因素。2.树木年轮样品中出现的偏心木和伪轮现象也是对滑坡灾害发生的佐证,说明受到滑坡灾害的影响,树木的生长环境发生了改变。     

略阳县农居房屋抗震现状调查与评价研究

为精准识别贫困山区农居房屋结构现状完好程度,本文开展略阳县境内41894栋农居房屋抗震现状实地调查,搜集整理域内孕灾环境和致灾因子强度,统计分析域内各行政镇（办）经济水平、农居房屋抗震结构类型和震害等级,预测震害矩阵,计算平均震害指数,并评价抗震能力。研究结果表明:域内农居房屋抗震结构类型包括土木结构、砖木结构和砖混结构;域内农居房屋在VI度地震作用下基本完好的比例为74.04%,在VII度地震作用下发生轻微破坏以下震害等级的比例为83.45%,在VIII度地震作用下发生中等破坏以下震害等级的比例为85.46%;域内农居房屋在地震烈度为VI、VII、VIII、IX、X度时的平均震害指数分别为0.13、0.23、0.32、0.49、0.71,抗震性能较差,不满足“小震不坏、中震可修、大震不倒”的抗震设防目标。     

宁镇地区地质灾害预报模型——以镇江润州区为例

宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。     

都市水源区村域社会−生态系统脆弱性空间分异的地理影响模式——以上海市青浦区为例

以上海市青浦区为例,采用数据包络模型、空间自相关模型、多元Logistic回归模型、地理探测器和层次聚类模型分析该区184个行政村社会?生态系统脆弱性的空间差异及地理影响机制。研究表明：① 基于熵权集结交叉的“投入?产出”效率模型对村域社会?生态系统脆弱性评价结果更具可信度和精确性,2018年行政村社会?生态系统脆弱性空间上呈由东向西逐渐降低的变化趋势,脆弱性均值为0.583;② 地理因素对经济发达村域社会?生态系统脆弱性空间分异仍旧具有重要影响。距上海市中心距离、距淀山湖距离、距青浦区中心距离和水域面积成为影响该区社会?生态系统脆弱性的4种主导地理因素,其地理影响力呈现系统结构空间差异和种类属性替代及程度转化;③ 依据地理因素影响力聚类分析将该区社会?生态系统脆弱性地理因素空间耦合模式分为10种,多地理因素耦合模式是主要决定类型,呈现中部多因素主导和两侧单因素主导并存的多元环状地域决定格局;针对不同类型提出调控区域社会?生态系统脆弱性的可行方式。     

Optimal rural land use allocation in central China: Linking the effect of spatiotemporal patterns and policy interventions

Rural land use development is experiencing a transition stage of socioeconomic and land use development in China. Historic land use transition process and policy interventions have key influence on the applicability of land use allocation solutions in future land use management. Strategic land use allocation is therefore required to possess a good adjustment capability to the transition process. Although heuristic optimization methods have been promising to solve land use allocation problems, most of them ignored the spatially explicit effect of historic land use transition and policies. To help resolve this issue, this study aims to optimize future land use pattern in the context of rural land use development. We took Yunmeng County, one of the typical major grain producing and rapidly urbanizing areas in central China, as a case study and solved the sustainable land use allocation problem by using an improved heuristic optimization model. The model was constructed based on the integration of a spatial discrete particle swarm optimization and cellular automata-Markov simulation approach. The spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions were represented by the CA-Markov as in spatially explicit transition rules, and then incorporated into the discrete PSO for optimal land use solutions. We examined the influence of the joint effect of spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions on the land use allocation outcome. Our results demonstrate the robustness and potential of the proposed model, and, more importantly, indicate the significance of incorporating the spatiotemporal land use patterns and policy interventions into rural land use allocation.     

实施东西合作促进区域经济发展--以驻马店地区为例

乡镇企业东西合作工程是国家推进区域经济协调发展的重大举措。在总结、评价、分析驻马店地区成功实践和经验的基础上,提出进一步推进东西合作的建议。     

Kīlauea summit overflows: their ages and distribution in the Puna District, Hawai'i

 The tube-fed pāhoehoe lava flows covering much of the northeast flank of Kīlauea Volcano are named the 'Ailā'au flows. Their eruption age, based on published and six new radiocarbon dates, is approximately AD 1445. The flows have distinctive paleomagnetic directions with steep inclinations (40°–50°) and easterly declinations (0°–10°E). The lava was transported ∼40 km from the vent to the coast in long, large-diameter lava tubes; the longest tube (Kazumura Cave) reaches from near the summit to within several kilometers of the coast near Kaloli Point. The estimated volume of the 'Ailā'au flow field is 5.2±0.8 km³, and the eruption that formed it probably lasted for approximately 50 years. Summit overflows from Kīlauea may have been nearly continuous between approximately AD 1290 and 1470, during which time a series of shields formed at and around the summit. The 'Ailā'au shield was either the youngest or the next to youngest in this series of shields. Site-mean paleomagnetic directions for lava flows underlying the 'Ailā'au flows form only six groups. These older pāhoehoe flows range in age from 2750 to <18,000 BP, and the region was inundated by lava flows only three times in the past 5000 years. The known intervals between eruptive events average ∼1600 years and range from ∼1250 years to >2200 years. Lava flows from most of these summit eruptions also reached the coast, but none appears as extensive as the 'Ailā'au flow field. The chemistry of the melts erupted during each of these summit overflow events is remarkably similar, averaging approximately 6.3 wt.% MgO near the coast and 6.8 wt.% MgO near the summit. The present-day caldera probably formed more recently than the eruption that formed the 'Ailā'au flows (estimated termination ca. AD 1470). The earliest explosive eruptions that formed the Keanakāko'i Ash, which is stratigraphically above the 'Ailā'au flows, cannot be older than this age. Received: 10 October 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999     

汶川地震滑坡危险性评价——以武都区和文县为例

利用GIS技术详细研究汶川地震在甘肃省陇南市武都区和文县触发的滑坡地质灾害的分布规律及其与地震烈度、地形坡度、断层、高程、地层岩性的相关关系,采用基于GIS的加权信息量模型的崩塌滑坡危险性评价方法,对研究区的地震滑坡危险性进行学科分析。结果表明：极高危险区在高程上主要分布在集水高程区,高度危险区主要沿白水江、白龙江等主干河流两侧极高易发区的边界向两侧扩展,轻度和极轻度危险区面积占比较小,主要分布在低烈度、活动断裂不发育、人类活动微弱的高海拔地区,另外国道G215沿极高危险性区域分布明显;利用危险性等级分区结果统计人口公里格网数据,得到武都区和文县潜在影响人口,发现研究区约78万人将受到地震滑坡灾害的潜在影响。     

Characteristics and implications of some Loch Lomond Stadial moraine ridges and later landforms,eastern Lake District,northern England

Moraine ridges and mounds of inferred Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) age have been mapped at three sites (Fordingdale, Swindale and Wet Sleddale) in part of the eastern Lake District, northern England, and indicate glaciers were more widespread than envisaged by Sissons (1980, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh: Earth Sciences, Vol. 71, pp. 13–27). The moraines delimit closely the downslope/downvalley limits of the former glaciers but there is no geomorphological evidence with which to define their upslope/upvalley margins. The former glaciers are considered to have been nourished within the confines of their individual valley, cirque and hillside embayment respectively, rather than being outlet glaciers of plateau icefields. Estimated equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) are within the range of values determined previously for LLS glaciers in the Lake District and do not necessitate revision of established palaeoclimatic parameters. Individual ELAs were probably influenced by local factors; all three former glaciers had accumulation-area aspects between north and east, limiting the impact of direct solar radiation during the ablation season, and were adjacent to extensive areas of high ground to the west and/or south that would have facilitated transfer of snow to their surfaces by winds from those directions. In Fordingdale, three essentially contemporaneous depositional landforms occur upslope of the moraines and are considered to represent hillslope adjustments following wastage of glacier ice from the site. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山西省大同市新荣区石墨矿岩石矿物地球化学特征与成因

山西省大同市新荣区石墨矿带总体呈北东—南西向展布, 长约22 km, 赋矿层位为中下太古界右所堡组, 岩性为含石墨黑云斜长片麻岩。目前该矿带上已有7个勘查区, 累计查明晶质石墨矿物资源量约 5000万吨, 但对其矿床成因类型研究相对较少。本文收集整理和分析总结了区域内地质资料及化验分析结果, 采用变质岩原岩恢复的四种方法确定该矿带的成因: 从石墨矿带的矿体产状和岩石组合、岩相学和矿物学特征定性判断该矿带矿床为沉积岩区域深变质成矿类型; 矿体样品地球化学微量元素比值(Sr:Ba等)符合副变质岩特征; 稀土元素配分曲线及其研究表明矿体及围岩具有沉积岩变质特征; 以TiO2-F图解、[(al+fm)–(c+alk)]/Si图解以及(al-alk):c图解展示的岩石化学特征半定量地确认新荣区石墨矿带矿床为以黏土岩为主的区域变质成矿。新荣区石墨矿带成因类型的确定填补了该区域矿床成因类型研究的空白, 为下一步地质找矿及建模提供了重要依据; 三种图解相结合, 逐步缩小原岩范围, 锁定原岩类型, 为变质岩原岩恢复及矿床成因研究提供了新的思路和判别方法。