2010年4月14日玉树MS7.1地震对余震的触发研究

研究了2010年4月14日青海玉树7.1级地震产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化对余震及区域地震活动空间分布的影响.在考虑震源区附近区域构造应力场的基础上,由震源区构造应力和主震破裂产生的应力叠加,计算得到最容易破裂的余震断层面,进而计算玉树主震在上述余震断层面上产生的库仑破裂静态应力变化.结果表明,库仑应力变化图像与余震分布较为吻合,说明玉树主震对大部分余震有触发作用.利用相同方法计算了玉树主震对周边更大范围内地震的应力触发影响,发现大部分区域地震活动空间分布与库仑应力变化图像基本一致,中小地震大多发生在正向触发区域,但量值较小.对余震断层面与主震完全一致的情形进行了同样的计算,与前述方法计算结果的对比显示,考虑区域应力场的计算方式所得库仑破裂应力变化图像,能够更好地与余震及区域中小地震空间分布图像相吻合.     

Engaging stakeholders in fisheries and marine research

Despite knowledge-brokering being of high interest to public policy, there is a lack of research integrating the knowledge of stakeholders and scientists, principally because public policies remain viewed as top-down controlled. To help European research policies make a positive difference to society, there is a need to better engage stakeholders with the delivery of research and to demonstrate an impact and value that it brings. The pertinent question addressed by this communication is: how can a deeper and more systematic engagement of stakeholders be enabled through European research activities? Enabling stakeholder participation in European research activities requires there to be an incentive for researchers and stakeholders to engage, and the capacity of stakeholders to operate effectively in the research framework. Unsurprisingly, the establishment of communications and cultures conducive to shared problem solving is high priority, as is the need to work towards a governance structure that helps link research with policy outcomes, while at the same time resonating directly with stakeholders. The Regional Advisory Councils could be a strong force in bringing stakeholders knowledge to bear on the scientific issues relevant to management, but their strategy and capacity to mobilise the skills to do so are not yet ready.     

Modeling regional sediment transport and shoreline response in the vicinity of tidal inlets on the Long Island coast,United States

A new numerical model was developed to simulate regional sediment transport and shoreline response in the vicinity of tidal inlets based on the one-line theory combined with the reservoir analogy approach for volumetric evolution of inlet shoals. Sand bypassing onshore and sheltering effects on wave action from the inlet bar and shoals were taken into account. The model was applied to unique field data from the south coast of Long Island, United States, including inlet opening and closure. The simulation area extended from Montauk Point to Fire Island Inlet, including Shinnecock and Moriches Inlets. A 20-year long time series of hindcast wave data at three stations along the coast were used as input data to the model. The capacity of the inlet shoals and bars to store sand was estimated based on measured cross-sectional areas of the inlets as well as on comprehensive bathymetric surveys of the areas around the inlet. Several types of sediment sources and sinks were represented, including beach fills, groin systems, jetty blocking, inlet bypassing, and flood shoal and ebb shoal feeding. The model simulations were validated against annual net longshore transport rates reported in the literature, measured shorelines, and recorded sediment volumes in the flood and ebb shoal complexes. Overall, the model simulations were in good agreement with the measured data.     

中国区域地质志空间数据库结构设计

在MapGIS平台上,采用关系数据库模型以及统一的系统库,设计了中国区域地质志中各类专业图数据库图层命名的原则,各类要素编码的方法,各类属性表的内容、结构,开发了数据库管理系统和一系列辅助软件,在提高建设数据库的效率和保证数据库质量精确的同时,实现了数据库系统用户访问、数据共享、数据查询等多种功能.中国区域地质志系列图...     

淮河流域能量和水分循环观测系统及作用

淮河流域是中国南北气候重要的过渡带,气象灾害频繁发生。这里水网、农田、丘陵、山地、城镇密布,地-气作用复杂,干冷与暖湿空气时常交汇于此,造成局地或流域旱涝经常发生。淮河流域处于梅雨区,且是中国重要的农业生产基地,具有气象和水文综合观测系统,积累了长序列的气象和水文观测资料。因此,淮河流域是研究能量和水分循环的理想试验区。国家自然科学基金重大项目“淮河流域能量与水分循环试验和研究（HUaihe river Basin Experiment,简称HUBEX）”于1998、1999年夏在淮河流域开展了气象和水文联合观测试验。文中回顾了HUBEX试验的目的、观测网设计与布局,介绍了HUBEX推动下的淮河流域综合观测网的发展,总结了HUBEX观测试验对区域气候事件和暴雨等灾害性天气机理研究、提高模式模拟和预报能力及建立长期连续的气象观测数据集等方面的成果和作用。      

Precipitation anomalies,economic production,and the role of “first-nature” and “second-nature” geographies: A disaggregated analysis in high-income countries

Linkages between hydroclimate variability and economic development are often theorized to be present only in developing economies. Using spatially small-scaled data from multiple decades for European regions, we examine the relationship between precipitation anomalies and economic performance in highly developed economic systems. We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis to mitigate the bias potentially arising from spatial aggregation because precipitation realizations tend to vary drastically within larger sized economic units. We modify original precipitation indices to capture the dynamic expectation formation of economic agents about climate conditions to measure deviations from these anticipated environmental states. Using panel model regressions in a quasi-experimental research design, we analyse whether deviations from average growth rates of aggregated economic output are potentially non-linearly related to the magnitude of precipitation deviations from the anticipated climate norm within regions, after accounting for any shocks common to all regions. We find that precipitation deviations that exceed critical thresholds (intermediate anomalies) for both unusually dry and unusually wet years reduce regional growth rates. The adverse impacts are more pronounced for overly dry periods. Importantly, the relationship between economic growth and precipitation anomalies is not generalizable across all regions. Natural geographical circumstances such as prevailing climatic conditions (“first-nature” geographies) and human-made socio-economic factors such as sector structure and income level (“second-nature” geographies) moderate the anomaly response. The empirical findings substantiate the necessity to incorporate precipitation variability into the assessment of economic costs of climate change; not only in developing countries or agricultural societies but also in highly developed economic systems. Moreover, the empirical results have important implications for policy makers as uneven effect sizes at the subnational level suggest that policy measures should be targeted in space and coordinated between national and regional levels of government.     

一组RegCM4动力降尺度对中国群发性高温事件的模拟评估

基于高分辨率格点数据集CN05.1和区域气候模式RegCM4对4个全球气候模式动力降尺度模拟（CdR、EdR、HdR、MdR）,识别了观测和模拟的1981—2005年中国群发性高温事件（CHTE）。在此基础上,评估了模式对中国CHTE的模拟能力。结果表明：4个动力降尺度模拟以及多模式集合（MME）均能很好地模拟出中国CHTE频次、持续时间和累计强度的空间分布。不过,HdR模拟的CHTE发生次数在新疆地区略偏少,而其他3个模拟试验的CHTE次数在中国东南部略偏多。观测中CHTE持续时间、极端强度、累计强度、最大影响面积、平均影响面积、综合强度等的频率分布规律均能被合理再现。MME也能很好模拟观测揭示的CHTE综合强度以及频次、持续时间、强度、影响面积等单项指标的上升趋势。单模式成员亦可再现大多数指标的上升趋势,但也存在一定不足,如EdR模拟的CHTE综合强度呈减弱趋势,MdR模拟的CHTE频次和极端强度呈弱的下降趋势。     

不同升温情景下中国东北地区平均气候和极端气候事件变化预估

利用区域气候模式RegCM4的逐日气温和降水资料,预估1.5℃和2.0℃升温情景下,东北地区平均气候和极端气候事件的变化。结果表明：RCP4.5排放情景下,模式预计在2030年和2044年左右稳定达到1.5℃和2.0℃升温;两种升温情景下,东北地区气温、积温、生长季长度均呈增加趋势,且增幅随着升温阈值的升高而增加;1.5℃升温情景下,年平均气温增幅为1.19℃,年平均降水距平百分率增幅为5.78%,积温增加247.1℃·d,生长季长度延长7.0 d;2.0℃升温情景下气温、积温、生长季长度增幅较1.5℃升温情景下显著,但是年和四季降水普遍减少,年降水距平百分率减小1.96%。两种升温情景下,极端高温事件显著增加,极端低温事件显著减少,极端降水事件普遍增加。霜冻日数、结冰日数均呈显著减少趋势,热浪持续指数呈显著增加趋势;未来东北地区降水极端性增强,不仅单次降水过程的量级增大,极端降水过程的量级也明显增大,随着升温阈值的增大,极端降水的强度也逐渐增大。     

Livelihoods and the transformative potential of cities: Challenges of inclusive development in Rustenburg,North West Province,South Africa

Urban geographers increasingly incorporate the potential of so‐called informal livelihood activities to provide resources that can be creatively managed in the transformation of urban space, particularly to the benefit of less well off and marginalized residents. This paper reports a case study in Rustenburg, North West Province, South Africa, where city managers began to promote inclusive development in the early 1990s, just prior to the formal dismantling of the apartheid system. The findings reveal that Rustenburg's urban transformation process, over a decade later, continued to reproduce repressive practices that limit the informal livelihood activities of the urban majority. Apparently efforts of well‐meaning city managers to implement a sustainable and inclusive development process are often rendered futile at the point of actually defining the constituents of urban socioeconomic transformation.