社会物理学视角下中国农村工业时空演化——以河南省芝田村为例

以五次实地调研为基础,对农村工业从民国初期至今进行阶段划分并总结其阶段特征;运用折射定律、万有引力定律定量分析工农效率及折射率,验证了微观尺度上可以反映更大尺度运行状况的理论假设。结果表明:(1)工业相对于农业有更高的效率。(2)引力与距中心村(镇)二次方正相关。(3)波动伴随工业发展的整个过程。国家政策在早期起主导作用;随着时间发展,外界经济环境逐渐成为决定性因素。(4)私有企业比集体企业折射率高是集体企业改制的主要原因,但前者承受经济风险的能力明显低于后者。(5)工农折射率与企业规模呈正相关。(6)企业组织效率:集群>集聚>分散。产业集群是农村工业发展的方向。在工业发展的初期,效率与企业规模之间存在指数增长关系,但随着向更高阶段的演进,将产生自我抑制作用。     

基于MODIS的珠江三角洲地区区域热岛的分布特征

通过MODIS地温数据,研究了珠三角地区由于快速的城市化过程造成的区域性大范围温度升高现象,即"区域"热岛现象。分析结果表明,MODIS数据能够较好地反映出区域城市化进程中区域地表热环境的变化。不同下垫面的温度差异是形成区域热岛的基础。在大规模连片的城市化过程中,城镇用地的周边区域受到温度升高的影响,地表温度也相应升高,从而造成了区域大面积的温度升高,形成了区域热岛。从空间形态看,区域热岛的空间格局与城镇用地的空间布局具有较高的相关性,大城市或城市连绵区往往是区域热岛的中心。城市连绵区及其周边区域的热岛现象十分明显,而位于研究区的西南和东北方位的城镇分布比较分散,对应的区域热岛现象并不显著。     

碳足迹研究进展及其对低碳旅游研究的启示

旅游业不仅是气候变化的受害者,也是造成气候变化的重要原因。基于生命周期评价理论的碳足迹研究,可以对产品或服务从“摇篮”到“坟墓”的整个生命过程所排放的直接和间接的CO2量进行估算。通过整理国内外对碳足迹研究起源,碳足迹内涵,碳足迹分类,碳足迹研究理论与方法,区域碳足迹,碳足迹与贸易、碳足迹与家庭生活,碳足迹计算器,碳足迹标签等方面的研究,总结国内外在碳足迹研究上的差异,并从旅游碳足迹研究,低碳旅游政策,碳汇旅游,低碳旅游衡量标准等方面提出低碳旅游研究的启示。     

Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021–2050) and a distant-future (2069–2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961–1990).Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961–2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty.Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.     

新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探

从新疆地区地震活动性、灾害背景及区域协同联动应急模式出发,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性及区域特性等原则的基础上,采用层次分析法建立了县级行政单元的地震应急能力评价指标体系;继而建立了基于基础设施条件、基础人力物力财力、(县级)专项能力和专项经验及基础环境背景4个一类指标集的县(市)绝对地震应急能力综合评价模型,并根据新疆地区4类人员问卷调查资料,计算和分析了样本支持条件下各指标的权重及结果,将其应用在新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力等级划分中。结果表明,地震应急能力的空间分布格局的产生与区域经济发展水平和地理位置等方面所具备的优势是相适应的,安居富民工程对提升区域地震应急能力发挥了重要作用,少数民族聚集区应急能力有待加强,寒旱、高海拔地区等特殊地理因素影响不可忽视。     

The Circular Economic Development Level of Beijing’s Service Sector Based on AHP Modeling

As a mega-city constrained by resources and the environment, Beijing has developed a leading service sector, and it is necessary to evaluate the service sector circular economy in this major global city. Here, we establish an indicator system including internal subsystem (economic production, resources consumption, waste emissions, and waste recycling), external subsystem (industry correlation) and mutualistic subsystem (society development), and use AHP modeling to evaluate the period from 2000 to 2013. We found that the development of the service sector circular economy in Beijing experienced an increase from 2000 to 2008, then a decrease from 2009 to 2013. This change mainly resulted from the decrease in Beijing’s GDP following the international financial crisis in 2008. The internal subsystem greatly influences the service sector circular economy:synthetic weight of economic production, resource consumption, waste emissions and waste recycling was 0.367,0.136,0.136 and 0.075, respectively. Within the external subsystem, industrial correlation has a weak connection with Beijing’s service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, this result illustrates that the development of the service sector circular economy has an intimate relationship with other cities or provinces around Beijing, such as Tianjin and Hebei. As are presentative of the mutualistic subsystem, society development has a positive nexus with the service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, proving that the development of the service sector circular economy can improve the service sector employment ratio in Beijing. We conclude with some suggestions on how to develop the service sector circular economy in Beijing.     

大兴安岭和长白山地形影响东北夏季降水的数值模拟研究

利用区域数值模式WRF-ARW（V3.9）开展高分辨率数值模拟试验,研究了东北地区大兴安岭和长白山地形对该地区夏季降水的单独和共同影响。结果表明,东北地区两大山脉地形可以显著影响东北及其周边区域的大气环流和降水。大兴安岭和长白山地形的阻挡作用使得夏季偏南气流在两个山脉的迎风坡一侧堆积,引起局地水汽增加并产生上升运动,因此两个山脉的迎风坡一侧降水增加;而在两个山脉的背风坡一侧,局地水汽减少并伴随下沉运动,因此两个山脉的背风坡一侧降水减少。大兴安岭地形的存在使得其东侧到松嫩平原地区夏季降水增加1.09 mm d?1（相较参照试验增幅为30%）,而使其西侧蒙古东部地区夏季降水减少0.69 mm d?1（相较参照试验减幅为24%）;长白山地形的存在使得长白山南侧到朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水增加1.76 mm d?1（相较参照试验增幅为26%）,而使其北侧三江平原地区夏季降水减少0.81 mm d?1（相较参照试验减幅为22%）。当大兴安岭与长白山同时存在时,两者的协同作用会减弱蒙古东部、松嫩平原和朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水的响应,而增强三江平原地区夏季降水的响应。该研究结果对于理解东北地区当代气候的形成具有重要的科学意义。     

贵州煤田地质局技术队伍建设问题探讨

目前地质市场由计划经济转化为市场经济,市场的竞争究其本质是人才竞争。因此应该采取科学合理的技术人才资源管理方法和管理体制,以整体和局部、近期和长远为目标进行有计划、有步骤的技术队伍建设,注重从才培养,激励地质技术人员专业技能的提高,采用倾斜政策留住人才、招纳人才,只有这样贵州煤田地质局才能在不久的将来拥有一支精干、高效的地质专业技术队伍,确保全局乃至二级单位适应煤田地质市场的需要,保证全局科学、和谐健康有序的发展。     

兴文世界地质公园的旅游循环经济模式探讨

随着旅游经济的飞速发展,旅游环境问题日趋严重。本文将循环经济的新理念引入到兴文世界地质公园的旅游中,可构建旅游循环经济的新型发展模式。在兴文旅游循环经济中形成三大循环:旅游小循环——四大景区内部的旅游资源的循环利用;旅游中循环——旅游业与其他产业部门之间的循环,组织生态产业链联结不同的产业部门,形成共享资源和互换副产品的产业组合;旅游大循环——整个社会的循环,大力发展绿色消费市场和资源回收产业,完成"旅游资源——旅游产品——旅游再生资源"的闭合环路。这三种旅游循环模式的整合使整个兴文县经济、社会及环境相互协调,从而实现旅游资源的循环利用和旅游环境的可持续发展。     

Thule Fishing Revisited: The Economic Importance of Fish at the Pembroke and Bell Sites,Victoria Island,Nunavut

Geografisk Tidsskrift—Danish Journal of Geography 110(2):261–278, 2010

In a comprehensive overview of evidence for fishing in the Thule period of the eastern North American Arctic, Whitridge (2001) noted that fish bones are either extremely rare or absent in archaeofaunal samples, despite the fact that artifact assemblages typically contain a variety of fishing implements. In this paper, we present new faunal data from two sites on southeastern Victoria Island, Nunavut, which offer a marked contrast to this pattern. The Pembroke site, located just north of Cambridge Bay, is a small Thule site probably occupied during an early migration into the region. The Bell site, located on the Ekalluk River, is a more substantial site, occupied for a much longer duration during the Thule period. These sites are located in areas devoid of many taxa preferred by Thule peoples, which led the sites' occupants to rely on caribou and fish for much of their winter subsistence. At the Bell site, storage of caribou and fish was critical for winter survival. However, the occupants of the Pembroke site appear to have been unable to acquire sufficient stores during the fall, and therefore relied on fishing through the ice during winter to supplement their inadequate stores. Although both sites indicate a more important economic role for fish than has been recorded on any other eastern Arctic Thule winter site, the use of fish at the two sites differs markedly, adding nuance to archaeologically known Thule subsistence patterns.