西南区域持续性干旱事件的行星尺度和天气尺度扰动信号

以2009-2010年发生在中国西南地区的持续性干旱事件为例,通过干旱和大气变量的物理分解得到了一些干旱事件发生的新认识.气象干旱多为年循环的气候干季与干旱扰动的叠加所致.一次干旱扰动大约为30-50天,而一次持续性干旱事件是由几次干旱扰动组成的.大气高度场和风场中存在三种时间尺度的扰动.一种是年际行星尺度的大气扰动,与ENSO冷暖事件有关,起源于赤道并传播到中高纬度地区需要2-4年.另一种是季节内行星尺度的大气扰动,与来自赤道地区的30-50天振荡有关.此外,大气中还存在天气尺度的扰动.利用行星尺度大气扰动向赤道外传播与天气尺度扰动的叠加,区域持续性干旱事件能够找到前期预报信号.     

休闲渔业对渔业经济高质量发展的贡献度研究

为测度当前我国休闲渔业的发展规模,选取2013—2018年的休闲渔业产值和渔业经济产值为变量,构建了直接贡献率、间接贡献率和回归分析法建立的边际贡献率模型,测算了休闲渔业对渔业总产值的贡献度。结果表明,2014—2018年的直接贡献率分别为4.38%、4.95%、14.3%、6.58%和12.5%,2014—2018年的间接贡献率分别为0.317%、0.261%、0.752%、0.403%和0.533%,2013—2018年,休闲渔业对于渔业经济总值的边际贡献率为9.9%,由数据得出,当前我国休闲渔业规模还很小,发展水平也很低,整体实力也很薄弱。为此提出：加大休闲渔业的政策扶持力度;设计最为合理的休闲渔业项目;加大休闲渔业的宣传;加强休闲渔业与高校的合作,培养更多的休闲渔业方向的高精尖人才;推动休闲渔业从业者专业素养整体水平的提高;鼓励休闲渔业从业者之间的帮助;健全完善休闲渔业的监督管理体制;加强组织领导,促进休闲渔业发展。     

基于ARMA模型的广元市中区经济增长预测分析

利用广元市市中区1978年到2004年GDP数据,构建了广元市市中区时间序列趋势的ARMA模型.在此基础上,对广元市市中区2006年到2010年未来5年内的GDP进行了预测,并针对该区"十一五"规划的各项目标任务提出了一些对策建议,为广元市市中区未来的发展提供参考依据.     

Is the Montreal Protocol a model that can help solve the global marine plastic debris problem?

The impacts of plastic debris on the marine environment have gained the attention of the global community. Although the plastic debris problem presents in the oceans, the failure to control land-based plastic waste is the primary cause of these marine environmental impacts. Plastics in the ocean are mainly a land policy issue, yet the regulation of marine plastic debris from land-based sources is a substantial gap within the international policy framework. Regulating different plastics at the final product level is difficult to implement. Instead, the Montreal Protocol may serve as a model to protect the global ocean common, by reducing the production of virgin material within the plastics industry and by regulating both the polymers and chemical additives as controlled substances at a global level. Similar to the Montreal Protocol, national production and consumption of this virgin content can be calculated, providing an opportunity for the introduction of phased targets to reduce and eliminate the agreed substances to be controlled. The international trade of feedstock materials that do not meet the agreed minimum standards can be restricted. The aim of such an agreement would be to encourage private investment in the collection, sorting and recycling of post-consumer material for reuse as feedstock, thereby contributing to the circular economy. The proposed model is not without its challenges, particularly when calculating costs and benefits, but is worthy of further consideration by the international community in the face of the global threats posed to the ocean by plastics.     

Escaping the corporate net: Pragmatics of small boat direct marketing in the U.S. Salmon fishing industry of the Northeastern pacific

This article considers corporate power in the fishing industry of southeast Alaska and Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, as experienced by direct marketing salmon gillnet fishermen. Tracing the evolution of a small family-based fish business, this paper examines survival strategies of independent fishermen in a context of concentrated corporate power. Topics addressed include corporate domination of the fishing industry, “niche” alternatives to the commodity system, alliance with the farmers’ market movement, obstacles to direct sales and the critical role of family participation.     

Regional disparities in China's marine economy

Understanding the performance of each coastal area as it develops is the primary task of policy-makers in a marine economy; however, quantitative regional differences in China's marine economy have not been empirically examined. This paper offers a methodological contribution by applying a series of techniques, including the variation coefficient, Gini coefficient, and Theil index decomposition, to illustrate the relative differences among coastal areas. Additionally, the coastal areas of China were divided into two categories to reveal the provincial differences and regional disparities in China's marine economy. The results show that although the numerical economic differences in Gross Ocean Product (GOP) among coastal areas have increased significantly during the 21st century, the gaps among coastal regions have gradually decreased. In addition, China's marine economy presents three levels of regional development (developed, medium-developed, and developing). The results of the Theil index decomposition show that the overall difference in China's marine economy is derived mainly from differences within the three macro marine economic regions; these differences account for more than 95% of the overall difference. Furthermore, the underlying reasons for and driving mechanism of regional differences in China's marine economy can be illuminated in terms of differences in natural resource endowments and geographic locations; industrial agglomeration and diffusion; changes in regional development policy; and foreign investment. These findings offer basic data support and policy recommendations for marine economy management at the national and regional levels.     

21世纪海上丝绸之路背景下的广东省蓝碳发展研究

海洋碳汇即蓝色碳汇,简称"蓝碳"。文章以21世纪海上丝绸之路建设为背景,以广东省蓝碳发展现状和需求为主线,分析广东省发展蓝碳对控制温室气体排放、保护海洋生态环境和实施"一带一路"建设的重要意义,论述发展碳汇渔业、修复典型海洋生态系统、控制陆源排放、开发可再生能源等蓝碳发展途径;在此基础上提出广东省发展蓝碳的主要对策,即完善政策保障体系、增强科技支撑能力、完善蓝碳产业链条、拓展国际交流合作、探索海洋碳排放交易试点、加强生态环境治理和发挥示范带动作用。     

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.     

海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济效率影响研究

产业结构变动对经济增长影响已经得到了现代经济增长理论的肯定,但是产业结构变动对经济增长效率的影响一直是学术界没有解决的问题。目前中国已经进入了中等收入国家,粗放式增长逐渐结束,集约式增长越来越受到重视。文章基于海洋产业,研究了海洋产业结构变动对经济增长效率的影响,将海洋产业结构变动具体量化,分为海洋产业结构高级化和合理化;其次运用海洋产业全要素生产率来衡量海洋经济增长效率,通过从海洋生产函数中剔除初级要素带来的海洋经济增长效率得出海洋产业全要素生产率;同时计算出海洋产业劳动和资本的生产效率;最后收集了1996—2015年全国沿海11个省、市、自治区的数据,运用混合面板数据模型来研究海洋产业结构高级化和合理化对海洋经济增长效率的影响。研究发现海洋产业结构合理化和高级化对海洋经济增长具有正面影响,对于未来发展海洋经济提出了提高海洋产业技术来提高海洋产业结构优化,从而使得海洋经济发展走上集约式增长之路。     

我国海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异与演变分析

劳动生产率差异是导致区域经济发展差异的重要原因,提高劳动生产率是促进经济增长的有效手段。分析我国海洋经济的劳动生产率的区域差异与演变对发展我国海洋经济具有积极意义。在分析我国海洋经济劳动生产率的特点基础上,文章运用基尼系数和泰尔指数计算我国沿海地区1997—2014年海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异,并进行σ-收敛性检验,结果表明区域差异呈现倒V字形走势,1997—2005年呈现σ-发散,2005—2014年呈现σ-收敛。采用泰尔指数分解方法测度表明,环渤海、长三角、泛珠三角三大经济区海洋经济劳动生产率地区内差异占总体差异的比重达80%以上,而地区间差异比重较小,环渤海经济区地区内差异最大。分阶段对我国各沿海地区海洋经济的劳动生产率进行排名并观察演变过程。提出提高我国海洋经济劳动生产率的相关建议:一是努力提高海洋经济全要素生产率;二是促进海洋产业合理布局,努力提高传统海洋产业劳动生产率;三是统筹区域海洋经济发展。