基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报思路探讨

文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。     

Population growth and the development of a central place system

This paper describes the spatial and functional evolution of a central place system as market conditions change with population growth. Utilizing a partial equilibrium optimization model, we examine the spatial response of two economic sectors to increases in market populations resulting from natural increase and migration. Response in both sectors is conditioned by threshold demand, with factor prices also affecting one of the sectors. As the central place system evolves it exhibits spatial and functional characteristics that are initially consistent with a Löschian landscape, then a Christallerian landscape at higher populations, while at even larger populations Krugman’s landscape emerges.     

Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe

This paper presents a continuous version of the model of distribution dynamics to analyse the transition dynamics and implied long-run behaviour of the EU-27 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995–2003. It departs from previous research in two respects: first, by introducing kernel estimation and three-dimensional stacked conditional density plots as well as highest density regions plots for the visualisation of the transition function, based on Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996), and second, by combining Getis’ spatial filtering view with kernel estimation to explicitly account for the spatial dimension of the growth process. The results of the analysis indicate a very slow catching-up of the poorest regions with the richer ones, a process of shifting away of a small group of very rich regions, and highlight the importance of geography in understanding regional income distribution dynamics.

四川长宁石林地质遗迹景观资源特征及开发建议

长宁石林地质遗迹景观资源丰富,类型多样。最具代表性的景观资源是岩溶地貌,有溶洞、石林、天坑、漏斗、地缝、暗河、瀑布等,并有其他多种配套景观资源。这些地质景观资源具有重要的地学科研和美学观赏价值,具有较大的开发潜力。     

GIS内涵的发展

根据GIS30多年的发展历程,总结了GIS的三个主要发展阶段及其内涵特点,说明了GISystem、GIScience和GIService的主要研究内容,最后提出了基于GIS内涵的三点初步认识。     

大冶铁矿国家矿山公园规划实践

大冶铁矿的开发利用在为我国的钢铁事业作出巨大贡献的同时,也给矿区的地表环境、森林资源带来了很大的破坏。矿山公园的规划实施可极大地改善矿山环境,为矿山的可持续发展提供较好的途径。     

开发利用好水利信息资源为水利信息化打下坚实基础

信息资源是行业最重要的资源之一。开发利用信息资源既是行业信息化的出发点,又是行业信息化的归宿。对于水利这一个信息密集型行业,需要逐步实现水利信息化,充分利用现代信息技术,深入开发和广泛利用水利信息资源,利用水利信息化推动水利现代化。     

工程设计单位信息化建设的创新与战略思考

信息化是工程设计单位实现发展与创新的重要手段。建设"网络化市政工程集成应用系统"是市政总院为实现企业战略目标,在行业信息化目标指引下而提出的信息化构想。其总体思路是建立以工程项目设计管理为主线的信息平台,实现覆盖设计全过程和全院各部门的、设计与管理一体化的集成应用系统。以此系统的建设为案例,通过介绍系统的基本目标、技术路线、主要内容及创新之处,为工程设计单位的信息化建设提供了思路与方法。最后通过总结系统实施过程中决定成败的关键因素,引申出工程设计行业信息化建设的战略思考。     

城市形象资源和地域文化传统特色研究

城市是人类的一种社会组织结构形式,与其他任何组织形式一样,城市的发展也需要核心竞争力,核心竞争力依赖于城市核心资源系统的开发和创造。通过城市形象的塑造再创城市新型的核心资源,这已经是一个既成事实,城市形象可以在更高层次保护城市传统资源要素,使其发挥更大的作用。     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.