Sometimes you cannot make it on your own; drivers and scenarios for regional cooperation in implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive explicitly calls for regional cooperation between the EU Member States in the different regional seas. This regional cooperation, although set in a general framework of EU Member States and non-EU states utilising existing Regional Sea Conventions as focal point, develops along different tracks. Based on a series of interviews with different stakeholder groups in the different regional seas the drivers for this regional cooperation were determined. These drivers were used to develop a set of scenarios to depict possible ways and structures for cooperation at the different regional seas. In this paper the result of this analysis and the different scenarios developed are presented. The five scenarios developed were very helpful in elaborating alternative governance models for regional cooperation. From the validation by the stakeholders it became clear that both the drivers used, as the scenarios developed were found to be relevant. There is no single solution that is going to fit all regional seas, or that is going to appeal to all stakeholders within a regional sea. Especially in this setting the scenario approach does help people to explore the full range of possibilities that exists for the development of alternative governance models that address two issues raised but not detailed in the MSFD: cooperation and participation.     

Marine governance of European Seas: Introduction

This introduction explains the context and structure of a block of articles developed as part of the governance work packages of the FP7 project: “Options for Delivering Ecosystem-based Marine management” (ODEMM).     

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development.     

Longitudinal and depth variation of bacterioplankton productivity and related factors in a temperate estuary

Bacterioplankton productivity (BP) spatial variation was investigated in relation to potential resources, including primary productivity and dissolved organic matter, in the micro-tidal Neuse River–Pamlico Sound estuarine system, North Carolina, USA. Estuarine BP was predicted to correlate with the trophic gradient, decreasing along the salinity gradient in parallel with the decrease in organic matter and primary productivity. This prediction was tested over four years at spatial scales ranging from kilometers to meters along the riverine axis and with depth. The general pattern of BP across the salinity gradient was unimodal and matched the phytoplankton patterns in peak location and variability. Peak locations varied with discharge, especially in 2003 when above average discharge moved peaks downstream. Spatial coherence of BP with other variables was much less at short time scales. The effect of temperature, nutrients, and phytoplankton on BP varied by location, especially fresh versus brackish stations, although only temperature explained more than 20% of the BP variation. Depth variation of BP was as great as longitudinal variation and bottom samples were often higher than surface. BP was strongly correlated with particulate organic carbon at the pycnocline and bottom, highlighting the importance of particulate matter as a resource. Station-averaged BP and phytoplankton data corresponded well with two published meta-analyses, although the offset of the freshwater station suggested longitudinal differences in community composition or resource availability.     

1953-2005年内蒙古东部产粮区气候变化特征研究

利用系统聚类分析和相关分析方法,根据1953--2005年内蒙古东部产粮区48个气象站的气象资料．进行了气候相似区划分;并得出各区在热量、水分的时间变化上具有较高的区域一致性。据此,以区域内各站点的温度、降水和日照时数的平均值作为区域热水光时间序列,分析了各气候要素变化特征及其对农业可能产生的影响。结果表明：各区域温度呈上升趋势,增温速率（平均增温为0．3-0．4℃／10a）高于中国平均增温速率（0．22℃／10a）,增温幅度呈从西向东递增的趋势,平均最低气温增幅最大,平均最高气温增温幅度与海拔呈正相关,尤以1988年以后变暖趋势最为明显;降水量基本呈减少趋势,年代际波动较大;20世纪90年代至今,内蒙古东部产粮区生长季降水明显减少,气温迅速升高,暖千化趋势表现明显,温差减小和日照时数减少,水热匹配格局发生改变,粮食产量出现减少趋势的可能性较大。     

中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验

中尺度降水模式预报具有很大的不确定性,为更好地描述与模式降水预报密切相关的物理过程关键参数的不确定性,基于中国气象局GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）中尺度区域集合预报模式,从对模式降水预报不确定性有较大影响的积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层等4个参数化方案中选取了18个关键参数,设计了一种随机参数扰动方案（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization,SPP）,并通过2015年6—7月总计10 d的随机扰动集合预报试验,对比分析了SPP方案对不同物理过程参数扰动敏感性、随机场时、空尺度敏感性、能量变化特征及其集合预报效果。结果显示,对所选择的任一物理过程参数化方案增加SPP扰动后,降水及等压面要素的概率预报技巧优于无SPP扰动的预报,而扰动积云对流和边界层过程中的参数较扰动云微物理过程中的参数影响更显著,且同时扰动积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层参数化方案中的18个参数的集合预报效果优于扰动任何单一物理过程中的部分参数,表明SPP方案能够有效地提高中尺度降水概率预报技巧;从能量变化特征可知,不同物理过程的参数扰动对动能、内能和总能量的影响层次和特征有所不同,但总体而言,扰动前后各项能量基本相同;随机场时、空尺度敏感性试验发现,SPP扰动随机场时间、空间相关尺度对集合预报效果有明显影响,当扰动随机场选用12 h抗相关时间及截断波数20时,集合预报结果最优。上述结果表明,SPP随机参数扰动方案不仅能够有效提高集合概率预报效果,还能够提高集合降水概率预报技巧,具有良好的业务应用与发展前景。      

额仁淖尔地区钋法找矿效果

本文通过额仁淖尔地区钋异常晕分布形态、异常特征及其与铀矿化关系的探讨，指出半干旱草原荒漠区用快速、大面积土壤钋法区调成果，对盆地浅埋砂岩型铀矿成矿预测是有效果的。     

GPS在湖南1：20万区域重力调查中的应用

GPS是现代高科技，它采用微型接收机，可以实现快速定位并取得测量点的3维座标。这种新技术在数字化地质、提高找矿效果等方面，应用前景广阔，侧重介绍了ASHTECH GPS接收机在区域重力调查中，怎样建立基准站与流动观测站、数据的传输与预处理和测量点3维座标的换算，以及应用数据自动生成布格异常等值线图。这项新技术的使用完全可以满足1：20万区域重力调查的精度要求。     

印度夏季风与中国华北降水的遥相关分析及数值模拟

20世纪80年代中国学者揭示了印度夏季风与中国华北降水的正相关关系,以后国内外又有一些研究证实了这种正相关关系的存在.文中利用1951-2005年多种气象资料和数值模拟方法,详细讨论了印度夏季风和中国华北地区夏季降水的关系,并针对由印度西北部经青藏高原到中国华北地区形成的正、负、正的遥相关型,从动力因子和热力因子两方面探讨了其中的内在联系,所得结果不但确证了以往的结论,而且进一步揭示了印度夏季风对华北地区降水的影响机制.结果表明:(1)印度夏季风强(弱)时,华北地区容易出现降水偏多(少)的天气;华北地区降水偏多(少)时,印度夏季风偏强(弱)的机率却低一些,这说明印度夏季风的异常变化对华北地区夏季降水有更大的影响.(2)印度夏季风强度主要受印度季风槽的影响,在印度季风槽加深的同时,中高纬的低压槽也加深发展,而这时西太平洋高压脊西伸,来自低纬的西南风水汽输送和源于西太平洋的副热带高压南侧的东南风水汽输送共同作用,有利于华北地区的降水偏多;反之则不利于华北地区的降水.(3)区域气候模式模拟结果也很好地模拟出印度夏季风和华北夏季降水的遥相关关系,其相应的环流异常系统与诊断分析结果非常一致,这从另一方面证实了这种遥相关关系的存在和可靠性.     

温岭石粘—松门一级公路沿线区域性地面沉降初步 研究

地面沉降地质灾害广泛分布于沿海软土区,该灾害会造成农田损毁、咸水内侵、降低城市排污能力,并影响航运交通,因而对其研究治理显得尤为重要。本文通过对温岭石粘-松门一级公路沿线区域发生地面沉降地质灾害的研究,分析了地面沉降产生的机理、地面沉降的发展现状、地面沉降的发展趋势,可供地面沉降研究参考。