1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及其气候特征

利用全国2287个气象观测站1961—2016年逐日降水资料,基于对暴雨区进行连续追踪的思路,采用暴雨相邻站点数和暴雨区中心距离确定了中国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别方法;根据区域性暴雨过程的平均强度、持续时间和平均范围构建了区域性暴雨过程的综合强度评估模型。利用该客观方法对1961—2016年中国的区域性暴雨过程进行识别,并分析其气候和气候变化特征。结果显示：我国区域性暴雨过程年均38.5次;区域性暴雨过程一年各月均可出现,但主要出现在4—9月,其中7、8月发生最为频繁,6月区域性暴雨过程持续时间长、范围广、综合强度强,这与长江中下游地区梅雨现象有关。一年中,区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期平均为3月6日,末次出现日期平均为11月14日;1961—2016年,我国年区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期呈明显提前、末次日期呈显著推后、暴雨期呈显著延长的变化趋势;年发生总频次呈微弱增多,较强区域性暴雨过程次数呈明显增加趋势;区域性暴雨过程的覆盖范围和综合强度均呈显著增大趋势。南方型区域暴雨过程变化趋势与全国的基本一致;北方型首次日期呈提前、末次日期呈推后趋势,发生频次有微弱减少趋势,覆盖范围、持续时间、综合强度均无明显变化趋势。     

区域站和基准站气溶胶的分析

文章讨论了秋季（1994年10月）和冬季（1995年1月）在中国西部青海省共和县瓦里关山（36°17′N,100°54′E,海拔3816 m）基准站和中国东北黑龙江省五常县的龙凤山（44°44′N,127°36′E,海拔331 m）及中国东南沿海的浙江省临安县的横畈乡（30°18′N,119°44′E,海拔131 m）两个区域本底站（上述3站均属WMO）所采集的气溶胶样品的质量浓度、可溶性离子浓度的时空分布特征和变化规律。初步得出：气溶胶质量浓度和可溶性离子浓度以临安为最高。其次是龙凤山,而瓦里关山为最低     

IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估

IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。     

植被变化对中国区域气候影响的数值模拟研究

用高分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM-NCC)模拟了中国区域植被发生改变后引起的局地或区域气候变化。结果表明:大范围区域植被变化对区域降水、温度的影响非常显著,内蒙古地区土地荒漠化可导致中国北方大部分地区降水减少,尤其加剧了华北、西北地区的干旱,西北地区绿化有利于黄河流域降水增加,而长江流域和江南地区降水却有不同程度的减少,因此可在一定程度上减少这里的洪涝灾害;气温的变化比降水更显著,植被退化使当地气温明显升高,使中、低层大气变得干燥,近地层风速加大,而植树造林却使当地及周围地区冬偏暖、夏偏凉,大气变得湿润,近地层风速减小,有利于在一定程度上减少沙尘暴的发生。另外,植被变化对东亚冬、夏季风强度也有一定程度的影响,从而影响到中国东部地区降水的分布和冬季低温、冷害事件发生的强度。     

Estimation of Regional Evapotranspiration by Combining Aircraftand Ground-Based Measurements

Two methods are examined for combining measurements from instrumented aircraftand towers to estimate regional scale evapotranspiration. Aircraft data provided spatially averaged values of properties of the surface, the evaporative fraction and maximum stomatal conductance. These quantities are less sensitive to meteorological conditions than the turbulent fluxes of heat and water vapour themselves. The methods allowed aircraft data collected over several days to be averaged and thus to reduce the random error associated with the temporal under-sampling inherent in aircraft measurements. Evaporative fraction is estimated directly from the aircraft data, while maximum stomatal conductance is estimated by coupling the Penman–Monteith equation to a simple model relating surface conductance to the incoming shortwave radiation and specific humidity saturation deficit. The spatial averages of evaporative fraction and maximum stomatal conductance can then be used with routine tower data to estimate the regional scale evapotranspiration. Data from aircraft flights and six ground based sites during the OASIS field campaign in south–east New South Wales in 1995 have been used to check the methods. Both the evaporative fraction and the maximum stomatal conductance derived from the aircraft data give information on the spatial variability of the surface energy budget at scales from 10 to 100 km. Daily averaged latent heat fluxes estimated using these methods for the OASIS study region agree with the available observations in quasi-stationary conditions or in weakly non-stationary conditions when the data from several aircraft flights are averaged to reduce the impact of short term imbalances in the surface energy budget.     

Numerical simulation of the regional ocean circulation in the coastal areas of china

The regional ocean circulation in the coastal areas or China (including a part of the western Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal el al.) is simulated by using the improved Princeton Uni-versity ocean circulation model (POM). Compared with the modeling results obtained by the large-scale ocean general circulation model (OGCM), the basic ocean circulation features simulated by the regional ocean circulation model are in good agreement with that simulated by OGCM and some detailed character-istics such as the regional ocean circulation, sea temperature, salinity and free sea surface height have also been obtained which are in good accord with the observations. These results indicate that the regional ocean circulation model has good capability to produce the regional ocean circulation characteristics and it can be used to develop coupled regional ocean-atmospheric model systems.     

Present-day climatology and projected changes of warm and cold days in the CNRM-CM3 global climate model

The impact of global warming on the warmest and coldest days of the annual cycle is explored according to an A2 scenario simulated by the CNRM-CM3 climate model in the framework of the IPCC AR4 intercomparison. Given the multi-model spread in IPCC projections, a validation strategy is proposed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Validation of the late twentieth century model climatology shows that warm and cold model events are slightly too long and infrequent. Although interannual trends in the warm (cold) day occurrence were positive (negative) only for six (three) of the nine considered sub-continental regions, simulated model trends are always positive (negative). This different behaviour suggests that simulated non-anthropogenic decadal variability is small relative to anthropogenic trends. Large-scale synoptic processes associated with European regional warm and cold peaks are also described and validated. Regional cold peaks are better reproduced than warm peaks, whose intensity accuracy is limited by other physical variables. Positive (negative) winter anomalies of sea and land surface temperature lead to summers with severe (weak) temperatures. These inter-annual anomalies are generated by a persistent pressure dipole over Europe. Regarding climate change, warm (cold) events will become more (less) frequent and longer (shorter). The number of warm days will largely rise and the number of cold days will dramatically decrease. The intensity of warm days will be particularly pronounced over Europe, given the projected summer drying in this region. However, according to the limited skill of the CNRM model, these results must be considered with caution.     

Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections

Often it is claimed that the recent changes in northern European climate are at least partly anthropogenic even though a human influence has not yet been successfully detected. Hence we investigate whether the recent changes are consistent with regional climate change projections. Therefore, trends in winter (DJF) mean precipitation in northern Europe are compared to human induced changes as predicted by a set of four regional climate model simulations. The patterns of recent trends and predicted changes match reasonably well as indicated by pattern correlation and the similarity is very likely not random. However, the model projections generally underestimate the recent change in winter precipitation. That is, the signal-to-noise ratio of the anthropogenic precipitation change is either rather low or the presently used simulations are significantly flawed in their ability to project changes into the future. European trends contain large signals related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), of which a major unknown part may be unrelated to the anthropogenic signal. Therefore, we also examine the consistency of recent and projected changes after subtracting the NAO signal in both the observations and in the projections. It turns out that even after the removal of the NAO signal, the pattern of trends in the observations is similar to those projected by the models. At the same time, the magnitude of the trends is considerably reduced and closer to the magnitude of the change in the projections.     

大兴安岭和长白山地形影响东北夏季降水的数值模拟研究

利用区域数值模式WRF-ARW（V3.9）开展高分辨率数值模拟试验,研究了东北地区大兴安岭和长白山地形对该地区夏季降水的单独和共同影响。结果表明,东北地区两大山脉地形可以显著影响东北及其周边区域的大气环流和降水。大兴安岭和长白山地形的阻挡作用使得夏季偏南气流在两个山脉的迎风坡一侧堆积,引起局地水汽增加并产生上升运动,因此两个山脉的迎风坡一侧降水增加;而在两个山脉的背风坡一侧,局地水汽减少并伴随下沉运动,因此两个山脉的背风坡一侧降水减少。大兴安岭地形的存在使得其东侧到松嫩平原地区夏季降水增加1.09 mm d?1（相较参照试验增幅为30%）,而使其西侧蒙古东部地区夏季降水减少0.69 mm d?1（相较参照试验减幅为24%）;长白山地形的存在使得长白山南侧到朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水增加1.76 mm d?1（相较参照试验增幅为26%）,而使其北侧三江平原地区夏季降水减少0.81 mm d?1（相较参照试验减幅为22%）。当大兴安岭与长白山同时存在时,两者的协同作用会减弱蒙古东部、松嫩平原和朝鲜半岛地区夏季降水的响应,而增强三江平原地区夏季降水的响应。该研究结果对于理解东北地区当代气候的形成具有重要的科学意义。     

区域趋势控制协变量回归分析效果评估方法研究

本文根据区域趋势控制和气象－物理协变量相关设计了三套非随机化人工增雨作业效果评估方案，个例作用区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案，区域趋势相关回归分析评估方案和气象－物理协变量多元回归分析评估方案，对河南省实例评估计算表明，利用物理协变量作为控制因子，可以提高作业区自然水量估计值的准确度，从而能提高随机化作业的效果评估效率。